What's Scary for VBC in 2025?
Kris Gates
Tech Founder | Product Architect | Entrepreneur | Author | Facilitator of Healthcare Innovation @ Lifestyle Health Network
A few of many (maybe not scary) topics to ponder as we head into 2025:
Scary AI Story (Because its true)
When Babylon Health went public in 2021, it was valued at over $4 billion. After several contracts with the government and private-sector companies failed, Babylon Health ended up in bankruptcy as it never lived up to its AI hype.
Babylon Health should scare doctors, healthcare administrators, and technology vendors as buying hype over well-defined deliverables always ends in pain.
Regretfully, at one point Babylon Health claimed its AI performed better than humans on an exam used to test doctors’ ability to diagnose. However, the truth is that questions still remain today if any AI product was ever fully developed and tested before launching it into the market.
The big question in the healthcare AI market is can an algorithm really replace your doctor?
Right now - the answer is No, in my opinion.
The current AI models are not sophisticated enough. While many AI models may assist and support the doctor, none are at the level of replacing a doctor in their entirety.
FDA Frightful Response
FDA Commissioner: “We Don’t Validate AI Tools”
These infamous words were delivered by FDA Commissioner Robert Califf, MD, at the 2024 HLTH conference in Las Vegas. Califf asserted that AI safety is mostly the responsibility of health systems, stating they need to “conduct continuous local validation of artificial intelligence tools to ensure they are being used safely and effectively.”
So, it is being left largely to healthcare providers to validate AI tools launched into market. This will require specialized training for internal IT staff to develop adequate screening processes.
President Trump AI CZAR - David Sacks
“David will focus on making America the clear global leader” in both AI and cryptocurrency, Trump said as he announced the appointment on 4 December. Trump’s promise that Sacks would “safeguard free speech online and steer us away from Big Tech bias and censorship” is expected to translate into less regulation of the industry.
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Lifestyle Medicine
Recently, the American College of Lifestyle Medicine (ACLM) has more firmly asserted the importance of lifestyle interventions to treat chronic conditions, including, cardiovascular diseases, type 2 diabetes, and obesity.
Per the ACLM - Lifestyle medicine certified clinicians are trained to apply evidence-based, whole-person, prescriptive lifestyle change to treat and, when used intensively, often reverse such conditions. Applying the six pillars of lifestyle medicine—a whole-food, plant-predominant eating pattern, physical activity, restorative sleep, stress management, avoidance of risky substances and positive social connections—also provides effective prevention for these conditions.
ACLM is the medical professional society for physicians and other professionals dedicated to clinical and worksite practice of lifestyle medicine as the foundation of a transformed and sustainable health care system.
My thoughts are lifestyle medicine supported by telemedicine will be adopted as a foundational care requirement of care coordination programs to boost VBC success.
New Administration and DOGE
In his prior administration, President Trump launched both the Direct Contracting Entity (DCE) model now known as ACO REACH model which is set to sunset December 31, 2026 and the Medicare Blue Button data-sharing initiative that expanded to Medicare Advantage and Medicaid patient-level data-sharing requirements.
President Trump's new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is tasked with streamlining government processes. With entrepreneurs Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy leading DOGE, this department could bring a significant change, including private-sector approaches to reducing government waste and optimizing federal budgets.
The new mantra seems to rate accountability and return on investment (ROI) as critical factors in defining outcome success.
DOGE could significantly reduce government budgets for certain VBC and other programs. It will be imperative for healthcare leadership to promote their VBC successes to the new administration and DOGE.
Winners with DOGE will be programs with proven ROI for healthcare and the government.
Losers with DOGE will be programs that have overly burdensome regulatory requirements and are costly to the government with little ROI.
Kris Gates, connect@healthendeavors.com
Engineer, AI, IoT, digital transformation, strategy, business models, healthcare innovation, preparedness, researcher, author
6dLLMs are impressive, particularly when we first use them. Their ability to seemingly understand language seductively implies that they know and understand what is beyond their reach, i.e., they don’t possess and are not capable of possessing human knowledge and understanding. This is a good place to start when using AI technologies. No! LLMs cannot replace clinicians and others who apply uniquely human characteristics including simpathy and empathy. They can function, however, as powerful tools that can elevate human and organizational performance. Unfortunately, they can also mislead their users. Like most powerful tools, they are two-edged swords. FDA can’t validate AI applications because they can’t be validated like other technologies and FDA doesn’t technically validate most systems. They review makers’ submittals and asses whether they meet its requirements. How FDA does even that much with AI is a technicality fascinating question!
Partner @ South State St. Consulting LTD. | Healthcare Consultant - Medicaid Expert
6dVery informative, maybe even scary. Ultimately the question is why AI? Is it to minimize or eliminate errors or replace HCP ?
Former journalist and versatile communications professional with experience in intercultural communication
6dA lot to watch! Thanks for highlighting.