What's Your Backup Plan?

When Admiral William McRaven was evaluating his options for taking out Osama bin Laden in the compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan he had a number of options to consider – according to his account of the decision making process in “Sea Stories: My Life in Special Operations.” Those options included bombing the compound, launching a CIA-led “snatch-and-grab,” seeking assistance from Pakistan, or a special operations raid.

Thankfully, we know how that worked out. Still McRaven and his unit had to prepare for a range of potential outcomes and responses in the event that the raiding party was detected crossing the border with Pakistan, the helicopters had mechanical or fuel problems, bin Laden was not in the compound, the Pakistanis became aware of and converged on the target.

The emergence of the coronavirus COVID19 is forcing companies, countries, and individuals around the world to address their own contingencies. Mobile World Congress 2020 in Barcelona was cancelled a few weeks ago – spurring a resort to conference calls and Webinars. This past week the Geneva International Motor Show 2020 in Geneva was cancelled – after the organizers announced their intention days earlier to persevere – when the Swiss government prohibited gatherings of more than 1,000 people in the wake of COVID19 infections detected in Switzerland.

The Geneva International Motor Show will stage virtual press conferences streamed online tomorrow: https://www.gimsvirtualpressday.ch/pressday

Suddenly the entire world has been instantly made aware of the fragility of diplomatic, financial, and transportation links tying the world together. While experts caution against panic, consumers are beginning to empty store shelves in the U.S. – which has largely avoided a major outbreak with the possible exception of Washington State.

Travelers have been confronted with uncomfortable decisions regarding overseas travel – or even domestic trips in shared conveyances – taxis and the like. An airplane cleaner in Los Angeles refused to board and clean a flight just arrived from China. Multiple large corporations have either banned travel or banned face-to-face meetings – or both.

If you travel overseas, will you be allowed to return? Is that Uber/DiDi/Gett vehicle clean?

Two thoughts immediately leap into my mind. The first thought is that the threat of COVID19 represents a powerful argument for individual vehicle ownership. On my way to LAX last week in a Lyft I couldn’t escape the notion that Lyft/Uber/Grab drivers and taxi drivers around the world may be literally taking their lives in their hands driving strangers around – and strangers, too, are at risk.

This calls into question the safety of all forms of public transportation. And that explains the images of empty streets in places as globally separated as Wuhan, China and Milan, Italy.

COVID19 calls into question the entire sharing economy – bikes, scooters, cars, public transportation. Wash your hands. Don’t touch your face. Cough into your elbow. It’s not enough.

China has gone so far as to enhance its privacy invading tactics in the interest of public health. The net effect is a complete breakdown in trust – the very glue holding mankind together and preventing infinite conflict.

COVID19 may pass swiftly, if we are lucky, possibly re-emerging at a future date. But this new contagion has held up a mirror to mankind exposing the brittle nature of our social structures and our vulnerability as a species.

The question we must ask ourselves is what is our backup plan. The precipitous decline of the stock market is a barometer – a coefficient of coexistence. It is clearer than ever that we rise and fall together, that we can’t wall ourselves off from the woes of our neighbors. The reality is that there is no backup plan. We are all in this together. We will fight COVID19 together. At least we will be better prepared next time. Or will we?

Admiral McRaven couldn’t rely on luck, trust, or good will in his mission. He needed a plan and multiple backup plans to prepare for any eventuality. The lives of his men and the lives of innocent Pakistani civilians and soldiers were at risk.

McRaven had a model of the Abbottabad compound built and rehearsed the raid multiple times before sending in his team. Still, the preparations failed to anticipate the impact of the 20-foot wall on one side of the compound on one of the helicopter’s lift – with disastrous consequences.

Seal Team Six survived. Osama bin Laden was eliminated. Conflict with responding Pakistani forces was averted. Mission accomplished. If only we could prepare as thoroughly as Admiral McRaven...

The citizens of the world should not need the bravery of a special forces team to take on the risks of everyday life. Our only backup plan now is leadership and science. My fingers are crossed.