- The Punjab cabinet fixed the wheat support price at Rs 3,900/40 kg with Sindh fixing the support price at Rs 4,000/40 kg as wheat procurement has slowly begun nationwide. Private sector wheat imports have reduced prices of various flour varieties, with millers cutting rates for flour no. 2.5 to Rs 106/kg from Rs 124/10 kg wheat flour bags to Rs 1,070 from Rs 1,250.
- NLC trucks covered over 1,400 kilometers to reach Dushanbe, Tajikistan with a delivery of potatoes in just 7 days from Okara and Rahim Yar Khan which highlights its strategic access to Tajikistan.
- Pakistan's trade deficit with the Middle East declined by 22.62% to $8.525 billion in the first 8 months of the current fiscal year. Meanwhile, exports to the Middle East surged by 35.75% to $2.024 billion.
- Pakistan's power consumers might face up to a 20% increase in electricity bills as NEPRA considers a margin hike for ex-Wapda DISCOs, following a revenue requirement totaling Rs 2.763 trillion for FY 2024-25. The World Bank found power and gas circular debts rose by Rs 135 billion to Rs 5.5 trillion (about 5.1% of GDP) by January. There has been a surge in energy inflation from 40.6% to 50.6% in 1HFY24.
- In a treasury bill auction, the government secured Rs 558 billion, more than double the Rs 225 billion target, indicating a stable interest rate outlook and rising foreign investment. T-bills continued to remain stable.
- A powerful 7.4 earthquake struck Taiwan, claiming at least nine lives and injuring over 1,000 people. The quake caused extensive damage to buildings and prompted tsunami warnings in Japan and the Philippines, which were later lifted.
AGRI-UPDATES - COMMODITIES, POLICY & DEVELOPMENTS
- Pakistan's Cotton Surge, Shortfall: In 2023-24, Pakistan's cotton production surged by 71% to 8.397 million bales, with Punjab contributing 4.282 million bales and Sindh contributing 4.115 million bales. However, this fell short by a record 3.873 million bales or 32% against the set target for the year, with Sanghar (Sindh) reporting the highest production of 1.695 million bales and Pakpattan (Punjab) the lowest at 5,240 bales. [Dawn]
- Punjab Cabinet Sets Wheat Price, Approves Policy: The Punjab cabinet fixes the wheat support price at Rs 3,900/40kg for the year 2023-2024, emphasizing the protection of small farmers' interests. [Dawn] [ET]
- Private Wheat Imports Lower Prices, Retailers Lag: Private sector wheat imports have reduced prices of various flour varieties, with millers cutting rates for flour no. 2.5 to Rs 106/kg from Rs 124/10 kg wheat flour bags to Rs 1,070 from Rs 1,250. However, retailers are not passing on the relief to consumers, charging Rs 145-170 per kg for various flour types despite the decrease in wholesale prices. [Dawn]
- PARC Recommends High-Yielding Rice Hybrids for Pakistan: The PARC's Rice Variety Evaluation Committee, led by Dr. Ghulam Muhammad Ali, recommended high-yielding rice hybrids, including Green Super Rice varieties, for cultivation in Pakistan, with yields 23-24% higher than existing ones. Dr. Ali praised both public and private sectors for their contributions and recommended eight high-yielding hybrids from private seed companies for cultivation in Pakistan. [BR]
- Pakistan's Middle East Trade: Deficit Shrinks, Exports Up - Pakistan's trade deficit with the Middle East declined by 22.62% to $8.525 billion in the first 8 months of the current fiscal year, attributed to reduced imports of petroleum products. Meanwhile, exports to the Middle East surged by 35.75% to $2.024 billion compared to the same period last year. [Dawn]
- NLC Trucks Bridge Pakistan-Tajikistan Trade Route: NLC trucks covered over 1,400 kilometers to reach Dushanbe, Tajikistan, marking a significant milestone in regional relations and trade. NLC's successful delivery of a shipment of potatoes in just seven days from Okara and Rahim Yar Khan highlights its strategic access to Tajikistan, fostering trade between the two countries under International Road Transport. [BR]
- Plastic Materials Export: Rs 11.35 billion was the export value of plastic materials in Feb 2024, up 111.6% compared to Rs 5.36 billion in Feb 2023, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. [ET]
ENERGY - WEATHER, WATER & POWER
- Pakistan Braces for 20% Electricity Bill Hike: Pakistan's power consumers might face up to a 20% increase in electricity bills as NEPRA considers a proposed distribution margin hike for ex-Wapda distribution companies, following a hearing on revenue requirement petitions totaling Rs 2.763 trillion for FY 2024-25. [The News]
- Off-Grid Electrification for 20 Districts: The Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives plans to offer off-grid electrification solutions to 20 disadvantaged districts nationwide, emphasizing the government's dedication to fostering equitable socioeconomic development and bridging the gap between underdeveloped regions and the rest of the country's advancement. [BR]
- PRL, Air Link Withdraw Bid for Shell Pakistan Stake: Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL) and Air Link Communication Limited have pulled out of their bid to acquire a 77.42 percent stake in Shell Pakistan Limited due to unsuccessful negotiations with the seller. This decision follows their earlier submission of a Public Announcement of Intention (PAI) signaling their interest in the acquisition. [The News] [ET]
- Saudi Arabia to Invest $1 Billion in Reko Diq Project: Saudi Arabia plans to invest $1 billion in Pakistan's Reko Diq Copper-Gold Project, acquiring shares of OGDCL and PPL. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will form a committee including officials from OGDCL, PPL, and the energy ministry to oversee the investment, pending approval through a summary sent by the finance and energy ministries. [ET]
- Rs 66 Billion Disputed Subsidy Claims Under Mediation: The Finance Division disclosed Rs 66 billion disputed unpaid subsidy claims between K-Electric (KE), Power Division, and Finance Division for mediation by former Attorney General Ashtar Ausaf Ali. This follows a notification from the Power Division and a Mediation Agreement, with a timeline and terms of reference shared via email on February 19, 2024. [BR]
- World Bank Urges Reforms as Circular Debts Soar: Despite efforts to curb price shocks and tackle theft and billing issues, the World Bank found power and gas circular debts rose by Rs 135 billion to Rs 5.5 trillion (about 5.1% of GDP) by January. The World Bank urged the government to step up reforms to recover the true cost of supply, noting a surge in energy inflation from 40.6% to 50.6% in 1HFY24 due to increased domestic energy prices. [Dawn]
- IRSA Meeting: Concerns Over Water Theft, Wapda Delays - During a recent IRSA Advisory Committee meeting, concerns were raised about water theft, Wapda's alleged incompetence, and limited snowfall, warning of a potential summer water crisis. The Sindh member of IRSA blamed Wapda for the looming water shortage in the province, citing delays in completing the Tarbela 5th Extension Hydropower Project (T-5). [ET]
- Fertiliser Manufacturers Face Tax, Monopoly Scrutiny: The tax audit issue of fertilizer manufacturers, owing billions in gas infrastructure development cess (GIDC), is now with the Sindh Income Tax Tribunal. Meanwhile, the Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP) has issued show cause notices to these manufacturers for monopolistic practices in controlling urea prices, intensifying scrutiny on the industry. [ET]
PAKISTAN - ECONOMICS, POLITICS & SECURITY
- Supreme Court Mulls Full Bench on Judicial Independence: The Supreme Court suggested forming a full court to address the suo motu case regarding the Islamabad High Court judges' letter, affirming the judiciary's independence. Chaired by Chief Justice Qazi Faez Isa, a seven-member larger bench resumed preliminary hearings on the issue. Chief Justice of Pakistan Qazi Faez Isa asserted that any assault on judicial independence won't be tolerated, indicating the formation of a full court to address allegations of intelligence agencies' interference. [The News] [Dawn] [ET]
- Pakistan Faces $120B Financing Gap, Crisis Looms: Pakistan's external financing needs of $120 billion for the next 5 years exceed its reserves, posing a default-like crisis. The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) proposed the "ISLAAH: Immediate Reform Agenda - IMF and Beyond" strategy to stabilize and grow the economy amidst these challenges. [The News]
- Govt. Secures Rs 558 Billion in Auction, Exceeds Target: In a treasury bill auction, the government secured Rs 558 billion, more than double the Rs 225 billion target, indicating a stable interest rate outlook and rising foreign investment. The three-month T-bill yield remained unchanged at 21.6601%, while the six-month yield increased by 101 basis points to 21.3999%, and the 12-month yield stayed steady at 20.8998%. [The News]
- March Data: Independent economists challenge recent PBS inflation data, highlighting issues like the use of subsidized gas and electricity rates instead of averages and lack of synchronicity between complementary products. Additionally, despite an overall decline in inflation, the sensitive price index for July-March rose from 30.50 percent in 2022-23 to 31.26 percent in the comparable period this year. [BR]
- Taliban Leader Urges TTP-Pakistan Peace Talks: A senior Afghan Taliban leader urged the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Islamabad to negotiate for peace, acknowledging that activities by outlawed militants inside Pakistan affect Afghanistan. Muhammad Nabi Omari, deputy interior minister of the interim Taliban government, made the remarks at an iftar gathering in Khost town. [Dawn]
- Pakistani Currency Depreciates, Gold Hits 6-Month High: On Wednesday, the Pakistani currency depreciated to Rs 277.92 against the US dollar, ending a three-week rising streak. Meanwhile, gold surged to a new six-and-a-half-month high at Rs 238,900 per tola, reflecting global market trends. According to State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) data, the rupee decreased by Rs 0.08 from Tuesday's high of Rs 277.84 against the greenback. [ET]
- NBG Chairman Criticizes Importers Over Cost Savings: Mian Zahid Hussain, Chairman of National Business Group Pakistan, criticized importers for not passing on cost savings from the dollar's decline to the public, highlighting flaws in the price control mechanism. He noted importers' financial gain instead of benefiting consumers and questioned the increase in petrol prices despite reduced import costs. [BR]
- Punjab Revenue Authority Reports Strong Tax Growth: In March 2024, the Punjab Revenue Authority (PRA) collected Rs 19.1 billion in taxes, marking a 26% increase from the same month last year. By the end of the first three quarters of the current fiscal year, the PRA collected Rs 164.3 billion in revenue, showing an 18% growth compared to the same period last year. [ET]
INTERNATIONAL - MARKET, POLITICS, SECURITY & DEVELOPMENT
- Taiwan Earthquake: 9 Dead, Over 1,000 Injured - A powerful 7.4 earthquake struck Taiwan, claiming at least nine lives and injuring over 1,000 people. The quake caused extensive damage to buildings and prompted tsunami warnings in Japan and the Philippines, which were later lifted. Dozens of people remain trapped in areas isolated by landslides, including tunnels through the island's mountains. [BR] [Dawn]
- European Birth Rates Decline: A Global fertility report in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100, was compiled by a team of international researchers at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). It based its predictions on the widely accepted premise that countries require a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 children per woman to ensure a broadly stable population. However, in Western Europe, TFR is forecast to drop from 1.53, where it was in 2021, to 1.44 in 2050, and drop again to 1.37 in 2100, according to the report, which predicts that Spain will suffer one of the steepest declines – to 1.11 in 2100. [Al Jazeera]
- Protests in Israel: Six months into Israel’s devastating war on Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is being accused of dragging out the conflict to stay in power and for obstructing a deal with Hamas to bring Israeli captives back from Gaza. Tens of thousands of protesters are calling for early elections as they and some Israeli officials lose patience with the prime minister’s performance, experts and critics told Al Jazeera. Israeli security forces have been using greater force to disperse protesters, as was seen on Wednesday outside the prime minister’s residence. The growing demonstrations in Israel reflect the latest poll by the Israeli Democracy Institute, which suggested that 57 percent of the Israeli public rate Netanyahu’s performance since the start of the war as “poor” or “very poor”. [AlJazeera] [Al Jazeera]
- Houthi Attack Kills 11 Yemeni Government Fighters: In a rare flare-up, a surprise Houthi attack killed 11 fighters loyal to the Yemeni government in the country’s south. The attack targeted fighters from the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in Lahij province, with casualties reported while repelling the rebels. The Houthis did not advance during the attack. [Dawn]
- Trump's Divisive Rhetoric: Immigrants Called 'Animals - Donald Trump, during a speech in Michigan, referred to immigrants illegally in the United States as "animals" and "not human," continuing his divisive rhetoric. Joined by law enforcement officers, he highlighted criminal cases involving such immigrants, warning of potential chaos if he did not win the November 5 election. [Dawn]
- 1 Billion Meals Discarded Daily: A Global Tragedy - In 2022, an astonishing one billion meals were discarded daily, amounting to a staggering 1 trillion dollars’ worth of food, while around 783 million people worldwide suffer from hunger. This level of food waste, amidst global crises such as climate change, economic shocks, the Covid pandemic, and conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, is a tragic global phenomenon. [BR]
- Rising NPL Concerns Amid Manageable Ratios: Concerns over rising non-performing loans persist as the economy sustains a high policy rate, but official statistics from the SBP and commercial banks show NPLs below historic averages. Total NPLs stand under a trillion rupees against gross advances of over Rs 13.5 trillion as of December 2023, with a manageable NPL ratio increase from 6.5 to 6.94 percent between 2022 and 2023. [BR]
- PM Shehbaz Forms Committee on Track & Trace System: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has formed a five-member inquiry committee to investigate the Track and Trace System (TTS) delays and consider terminating the current vendor's contract, potentially opting for a new world-class company for its implementation in sectors vulnerable to revenue leakages. [BR]
- Concerns Rise Over Gastroenteritis Spike in Karachi: Experts expressed concern over the city's high gastroenteritis cases, attributing it to contaminated water usage due to gas shortages. They emphasized the need to boil or filter water supplies, found to be highly contaminated, as doctors at the Dr. Ruth Pfau Civil Hospital Karachi reported a spike in cases, with around 1,500 patients daily at the emergency department. [Dawn]
- Opinion: Rising Energy Prices - “In Pakistan, middle and lower-middle classes lost 30 percent of their purchasing power during the past four years. The official consumer price inflation recorded a cumulative increment of 33 percent per year in April 2022 which means if a person was earning Rs 100,000 a year ago, the nominal income has a purchasing power today of Rs 67,000 while a median income of Rs 30,000, was equivalent to Rs 20,100. UNDP’s data also shows that the middle class fell from 42 percent of the population in 2009 to 33 percent in 2023.” - By Abdus Sattar [BR]
