When Vision Inspires, Outcome Backfires
Svyatoslav Biryulin
Help you make right strategic moves every day | Strategy consultant and board member. Guiding startups and mature companies to better strategic decisions.
Originally published here
“Don’t fall in love with your solution. Fall in love with the problem.”
Paul Graham
Can you imagine a startup that raised $1.7 billion in the initial investment and shut down only six months after launch?
Its name was Quibi.
In 2020, it promised to revolutionize the way people are entertained. But today, its name is a synonym for failure.
Quibi’s business model involved creating 10-minute clips that would be watched on mobile during commutes. Unfortunately, it launched in 2020, when most commuters stayed home.
The model relied on A-listers instead of the Youtubers or TikTokers that people were used to watching on the go. Quibi also tried to charge users to watch the videos.
It was a product in search of customers. The scale of thinking determines the scale of success – or disaster.
Quibi failed to find a Big Problem to solve.
Big businesses grow from big problems, not big ambitions
Most traditional strategy textbooks claim we should start with big ambitions, goals, and vision.
If an International Big Ideas Championship ever took place, this idea would be a front-runner for the crown.
It turns vision into a dream. Although a vision should be ambitious, it should still be based on something other than our daring aspirations.
Quibi had a big dream. Where is it now?
Other textbooks recommend developing a vision only after conducting a market analysis. This makes perfect sense, yet it yields little value for two reasons:
1. No analytics can help us predict the future. The future doesn’t unfold as a linear continuation of the past and present.
2. This approach can lead us into another trap: we may create a product or solution that, at best, will be an improved version of what already exists.
We can adopt another attitude attributed to Peter Drucker: “The best way to predict the future is to create it.” It sounds like an inspiring motto for a Hollywood blockbuster, but it rarely works in real life.
The early adopters of blockchain, 3D printers, AR, VR, flying cars, and Metaverse also believed they created the future.
The future is not created by those who dream about it but by those who solve big problems.
Progress is driven not by those who dream big
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"Each problem has hidden in it an opportunity so powerful that it literally dwarfs the problem. The greatest success stories were created by people who recognized a problem and turned it into an opportunity." - Joseph Sugarman, American Author
In 312 B.C., Roman censor Appius Claudius Caecus faced the problem of supplying Rome with fresh water. He led a group of engineers who built Aqua Appia, the first aqueduct in the world.
Before 1440, there was the only way to make a book – to write it by hand. In 1440, Gutenberg invented the printing press and solved the problem.
On 3 April 1973, Motorola engineer Marty Cooper made the first cell phone call in history using the Motorola DynaTac 8000X, the first cell phone in the world that he developed. People wanted to always be in touch, and Copper solved this problem.
Progress is driven not by those who dream big but by those who solve Big Problems.
When I help businesses with their strategies and work on visions, we never start with bold aspirations.
We start with a question: “What Big Problem do we want to address?”
The scale of the problem you want to tackle determines the scope of your strategy.
Steve Jobs believed that mobile phones of the time were ugly and user-unfriendly. He solved this problem by creating the iPhone.
Kristo Käärmann and Taavet Hinrikus believed there should be an easier and cheaper way to transfer money, so they created TransferWise, today known as Wise.
Many startups leverage technology. However, only those who find a way to use technology to solve big problems succeed.
Technology is useless in itself. For instance, Generative AI is still a solution in search of a problem.
When we start with a bold vision instead of a problem, we:
1. Ignore other problems, including those whose solution could bring us to an even bigger goal.
2. Discard problems whose solutions don't obviously lead us to the goal.
3. Might choose a boring problem, but we'll still choose it because it leads us to the goal.
Find a Big Problem to solve, and a bold vision will follow. If you need help finding a Big Problem you want to tackle, just let me know.
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