When we let the data talk….

Earlier this year, I was asked to deliver the Manion Lecture, one of the most impactful data-driven speeches of my long career. The speech is accessible on the Canada School of Public Service website, and the punchline is that our data show Canada to be at a crossroad.

The decisions we make will have a profound trajectory on the future of this nation and its habitants. I tried not to be overly dramatic, but when we truly take into account what the data are telling us, we are witnessing the end of one era and the beginning of a very different one. Canada is in the midst of an identity shift.

To some, this is thrilling. To others, this can be terrifying.

Data are the building block of our understanding. Statistics Canada’s data-driven insights help inform major decisions that governments, organizations, businesses and all Canadians make, every day. These decisions affect our future as a country. We know that high quality, timely and disaggregated data should lead to better outcomes, for us, and for generations to come.

This was another banner year for the breadth and volume of information we disseminated. The 2021 Census alone added billions of new data points to the country’s insatiable appetite for more information. A few highlights that stood out….

In June 2023, Canada’s population surpassed 40 million people, as the country added 1.1 million people in 2022 alone, most of them permanent and temporary immigrants. Today, that number is more like 40.6 million and ticking up at a pace not seen in over 60 years. If current immigration levels stay in place, Canada’s population could hit the 50 million mark by 2043—that’s just 20 years from now. It took us 150 years to reach that 40 million level. In the history of the country, we grew significantly after the two world wars, resulting in significant social and economic change. The current growth spurt will undoubtedly do the same.

Our fertility rate hit a new low of 1.33 and our life expectancy actually declined for the third year in a row. We have more than 7 million senior citizens, with the number expected to grow to 11 million in the next 20 years.

Demography is indeed destiny.

In 2021, the census counted more than 450 ethnic and cultural origins, 200 places of birth, 100 religions, and 450 languages. Over 1.8 million Indigenous people were also counted in the census, representing 5% of the population, speaking more than 70 Indigenous languages. No other country in the world boasts a more educated population. Our country is incredibly diverse and rich in talent.

Data show that our country is facing growing pains. In changing and challenging times, data become even more crucial for understanding and tackling important issues. Higher food prices, rising mortgage interest and housing prices continue to pose serious challenges for many Canadians. One in three Canadians reported having a difficult time making ends meet financially. Food banks are seeing record use. And Canada’s inflation rate held steady at 3.1% in November 2023, as pressures on affordability remain persistently stubborn, especially for younger households.

The country is facing significant labour shortages in certain sectors, such as construction and healthcare—primarily as a result of an aging population. There are over 600,000 job vacancies in Canada, down from nearly a million over a year ago. Our Labour Force Survey, which measures the current state of the Canadian labour market, is used to calculate unemployment rates and help make decisions regarding job creation, education and training, retirement pensions and income support. Canada’s unemployment rate is slowly rising—it reached 5.8% in November. Other data that give reason to pause: in 2022, 27% of Canadians aged 15 or older had at least one disability, an increase of 4.7 percentage points from 2017. Our productivity rate remains stubbornly weak, compared to the United States and many other OECD countries.

Economic growth in Canada has been challenged over the last year as households and businesses adjust to higher borrowing costs. Real gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2023 was 0.5% larger than in the third quarter of 2022, a pace of economic growth that is mid-range among G7 countries. And household spending, adjusted for inflation, has been flat for two consecutive quarters, its weakest period, excluding the pandemic, since 2009. But there’s clearly more to measure beyond the GDP.

Canada’s Quality of Life Framework monitors 84 objective and subjective measures of societal, environmental and economic well-being. We are still making sense of the impact of the pandemic and poly-crises on Canadian society, and a number of these indicators are showing signs of strain. For example, trends in life expectancy and crime that had been improving over the long-term have worsened in recent years, and people are reporting lower levels of confidence in institutions. By the last quarter of 2022, nearly 35% of Canadians were reporting difficulty meeting financial needs, and this looked to be having a flow-on impact to other indicators of well-being. But by the second quarter of 2023, there were promising signs that Canada may be turning a corner with that number decreasing for the first time in this inflationary period to 26.8%. Over the same interval, more Canadians reported high levels of overall life satisfaction (45.8% to 51.4%), sense of meaning and purpose (53.9% to 58.3%), self-reported mental health (47.7% to 48.7%) and sense of belonging to local community (45.6% to 46.1%).

When we think of the future, few things rival concern for the environment. The world’s first, Census of Environment (CoE) is helping show a full picture of our ecosystems and their benefits, enabling better decision-making in our response to environmental challenges. For example, the CoE recently showed that urban greenness has declined since the beginning of the millennium. While it has declined in every province and every major urban area over this period, the largest drops are in Canada’s large urban population centres (a drop of 10.2 percentage points from the 2000 to 2004 average to the current five-year average). We know from our previous research that greenness is not equitably distributed within cities.

We are facing demographic, economic, technological, social, environmental and many more challenges. The speed and the multiplicity affect can truly feel overwhelming.

A robust data ecosystem is essential to help us address key challenges and move our society and economy forward in this time of uncertainty and change. Canada is likely at a crossroads, and quality, timely, and disaggregated data will be a key tool leading to better decision-making for everyone in our country. Thanks to Canadians who see the value of data and support our efforts, we continue to collaborate, innovate, modernize and do our part in helping build a brighter future for all. We need to continue to let the data talk and listen carefully.