This Referendum is all about Sovereignty

When campaigning for Parliament last year, I fully supported the Prime Minister's referendum pledge and I was confident that he'd be able to successfully renegotiate our relationship with Europe.  

That didn't happen and over the past months, just as with every other British voter, I've had the opportunity to examine, think and debate what would be best for our country.  And, after much thought and reflection, I'm now determined and certain that best is to leave.  

Here and now I state my case to my friends and business colleagues.  Now is the time to have a view and to argue and share it with others.  In less than 36 hours, the result will be known and then I urge everyone to accept whatever the majority of our people have voted.  That is democracy and I will stand by the decision of our nation.

So why am I out?  Facts not forecasts win the EU debate on the economy and immigration but that’s not the point the Brexit campaign should be making.  This referendum has to be about sovereignty and British votes for British laws.  First though let's get the economy and immigration out of the way.

Facts not Forecasts

In London, perhaps the most surprising element of the referendum has been Europeans arguing for Brexit.

A Remain friend of mine yesterday said the most convincing case she’d heard to date for Exit was from her international friends. 

A Frenchmen, one of the 300,000 estimated to be working in London, argued that Britain would be mad to “hitch herself to a Europe” that’s so clearly failed and declining.

The EU has slower growth than any other developed economy, a share of global GDP which has halved in the last thirty years, negative interest rates and youth unemployment at over 20%.  It also has an immigration crisis with over one million Mediterranean Sea arrivals and is challenged to handle terrorism or even Russian football hooligans. 

These are facts, not opinion.  That the UK is a net payer in to the EU and that US exports to the EU have grown faster than Britain’s since 1972 is also a fact.  Likewise Australia completed a free trade agreement with the US in 11 months.  Iceland and Switzerland have free trade agreements with China negotiated within three years.  Of Britain’s top 15 trading partners, of the non-EU members only South Korea and Switzerland have trade agreements with the EU.  In our 44 years of membership, the EU has not secured trade agreements with the US, China or India.  Both Clinton and Trump, to put it mildly, have expressed doubts about the TTIP deal between the US and EU.  Not forecasts, facts.

But to me, as for many businessman, the most important fact is Britain’s trade deficit with the EU.  We are the EU’s and, especially Germany’s, biggest customer.  We are also the EU’s biggest provider of foreign direct investment.  In the real world, when all is said and done, individuals, and companies, accommodate to change and do not attack their own customers.

Those pushing the economic case for Remain are, like many bullies, deeply insecure.  They are producing forecast after forecast to distract from the facts of today and actual experience of our past.  The increasing threats, the talk of no new deals, Project Fear, the spectre of the end of Western Civilization and new wars, are all a sign of weakness not strength or confidence. 

The economic reality is that a vote to Leave will have the EU begging the United Kingdom to come to terms.  Our trade, our investment and the net contribution we make to the EU budget itself will mean that pride will be swallowed.  And the framework of WTO rules, the principle of continuity in international law and Britain’s defence and security resources all mean that there will be scope for win/win negotiation and agreement between us and the EU.  The realities of business and trade will provide a new equilibrium between us and Europe.

And for sovereignty: It’s also the facts that should count

But in truth, the economic and immigration arguments for and against Brexit, are a distraction from the key question of who will rule Britain

So now for the most important fact.  “Ever closer union” is the stated and ultimate aim of all signatories to the European Union treaties.  It is unambiguous and, as recently re-iterated by Jean-Claude Juncker, eventually means a shared currency, shared taxation and a shared military.  The ‘U’ in the EU is Union because Europe is a political project and that means transferring sovereignty from Westminster to Brussels where it will be shared with other Union members.  In this shared sovereignty, the UK’s voice is represented by 73 MEP’s out of 751, by 1 national leader out of 28 in the Council of Ministers and, at present, by none of the seven European Presidents.

More facts.  In Britain, we have the chance to change our Government every 5 years.  For Europe we have had to wait 44 years for a similar chance and we are told that this is a one-off. 

Do the vast majority of Briton’s want this super-state?  And if they don’t, isn’t it undemocratic and disingenuous for our leaders to argue otherwise.  The PM has indeed saved us from "ever closer union" but why be a member of club when you don't share the end objectives of its 27 other members?

On economics and trade, individuals and business will find a way forward which benefit both sides.  However against the EU bureaucracy and its governments, and the 19 countries of the Eurozone especially, why do we believe that we’ll prevail in the long-term on the very different matter of sovereignty?  As mentioned above, I strongly supported calling a referendum and the Prime Minister’s bid to renegotiate the EU Treaty.  The PM has delivered on that referendum and he fought hard for a new European deal.  But have most people seen victory in that renegotiation or will they remember the 27 countries stubbornly stood against him and our peoples’ wishes.  The leaders of those governments want shared sovereignty and, as when they refused real concessions to the Prime Minister, they will brook no opposition to that goal.

British Votes for British Laws 

Now the choice is simple.   If we want Briton’s people to entirely decide Briton’s government, vote Leave.  If we want to share sovereignty with the whole of the people of Europe, vote Remain.  Anything else is a distraction.