Why India Should Not Aim to Take Back Pakistan Occupied Kashmir

a)      Challenging Geography: The terrain and climate of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK), including Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, present formidable challenges. With mountainous regions and rudimentary supply lines, any attempt to reclaim POK would face significant logistical hurdles. The difficult terrain favors the defending forces, making large-scale invasions arduous for India.

b)      Tactical Disadvantages: The geography of the Kashmir region limits access for Indian forces, confining them to narrow river valleys and existing road infrastructure. These approaches are well-known to the Pakistani Army and heavily fortified, posing significant obstacles to Indian advancement. Moreover, the rugged terrain enables defenders to leverage fortified positions effectively, causing substantial harm to larger attacking forces.

c)       Hostile Population: The majority of Kashmiris in POK are Muslim and maintain a pro-Pakistani and anti-Indian sentiment. Controlling this population would be exceedingly challenging for India, potentially leading to sustained resistance and insurgency. With a direct land connection to Pakistan, infiltrating partisans and supplies into POK would strain Indian logistics and undermine military efforts, creating a protracted and difficult conflict.

d)      Historical Precedents: Despite 75 years of independence, sealing the border with Pakistan remains incomplete due to the challenging terrain. Moreover, past experiences, such as the East Pakistan crisis in 1971, highlight the complexities of managing regions with strong separatist sentiments and external support.

The International Reaction Is Bound to Be Severe

a)      Diplomatic Fallout: A unilateral declaration of war by India, aimed at seizing Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK), would provoke strong condemnation from the international community. Such aggression for territorial expansion would be viewed unfavorably, leading to swift diplomatic repercussions.

b)      Economic Sanctions: Immediate economic sanctions would be imposed on India, causing significant disruptions to its economy. Critical supply chains would be interrupted, hindering India's ability to sustain offensive operations. Pressure to withdraw from POK would escalate rapidly under the weight of international pressure.

c)       External Support for Pakistan: Arab states and other allies of Pakistan may provide financial and material support in response to Indian aggression. This external backing would bolster Pakistan's resilience and prolong the conflict, potentially leading to a protracted stalemate.

d)      Risk of Chinese Intervention: A military incursion into POK by India could prompt Chinese intervention in support of Pakistan, escalating the conflict into a two-front war. This scenario would pose formidable challenges for India's military capabilities and strategic position.

e)      Diplomatic Isolation: India would face diplomatic isolation from permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and other European nations. The resultant slowdown of the Indian economy and the erosion of international goodwill would have dire consequences for India's global standing and economic stability.

f)       Nuclear Deterrence: Both India and Pakistan are nuclear-armed states, raising the specter of catastrophic consequences in the event of escalated conflict. India cannot risk tarnishing its image as a responsible nuclear power by initiating hostilities over a relatively small piece of territory like POK.

The Cost of Capturing and Retaining Kashmir: High Costs, Questionable Benefit

a)      Economic Disincentives: The economic viability of capturing and retaining Kashmir is highly questionable. Limited business opportunities and investment prospects, coupled with the persistent instability in the region, dampen the potential for economic growth. Despite decades of independence, the situation in Kashmir remains precarious, with substantial financial resources being allocated to maintain stability, representing a significant strain on India's GDP.

b)      Strategic Folly: India would find itself entangled in securing regions that hold little strategic significance and lack a desire to align with it. Pursuing such territorial ambitions defies rationality, driven more by nationalist sentiments than logical strategic imperatives.

c)       Economic Motives Absent: Unlike historical instances where nations annexed territories for economic gain or strategic advantage, the case for India's involvement in Kashmir lacks compelling economic incentives. Building trade routes through challenging terrain like the Wakhan Corridor would entail significant effort with limited economic returns, particularly given India's existing trade ties and alternative routes.

d)      Escalation Risks: Managing the escalation of conflict in Kashmir poses a formidable challenge, given Pakistan's nuclear deterrent and clear redlines regarding territorial integrity. The loss of significant territory would prompt Pakistan to resort to nuclear weapons, escalating the conflict to an existential level. China's potential military intervention further complicates the situation, rendering India ill-equipped to confront two adversaries simultaneously.

POK Basics

·         Population: 4,045,366

·         Area: 13,297 km2 (5,134 sq mi)

·         Economy of Azad Kashmir: As of 2022, the GDP of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (POK) was estimated to be US$6.6 billion, giving per capita income of $1,512. Azad Kashmir's economy is heavily dependent on agriculture, but also relies on remittances sent each year by the members of the large Kashmiri diaspora. In the southern districts, many men have been recruited into the Pakistani Armed Forces.

Summary:

·         While the desire to reclaim POK may exist, the practical challenges posed by its geography, coupled with the sentiments of the local population and the potential for sustained insurgency, make it an untenable objective for India. Instead, diplomatic and peaceful approaches to address the Kashmir issue may offer more viable solutions in the long term.

·         The pursuit of military action to capture POK would invite severe international backlash, economic hardships, and strategic vulnerabilities for India. Such a course of action is not aligned with India's historical approach to foreign policy and would risk destabilizing the region with potentially catastrophic consequences.

·         The costs of capturing and retaining Kashmir far outweigh the dubious benefits. Economic constraints, strategic imprudence, and the risk of escalation underscore the impracticality and futility of pursuing such ambitions. India's interests are better served through diplomatic efforts and peaceful resolutions rather than embarking on costly and perilous military endeavors.

Many nationalists may not agree to this but they have to think through rationally and move on in life. They have to take lessons from 2 ongoing Wars-Ukraine & Gaza.