Why the Moon is the Ultimate Frontier for Human Settlement Over Mars

The Case for Choosing the Moon first Over the Red Planet - by Frederic Eger - The Moon has been a subject of debate and controversy since the 17th century, with colonization being contested for perpetuating colonialism and its exploitive logic in space. International space law declares laying claim to the Moon illegal, and no state has made such claims. Current projects for establishing permanent crewed presence on the Moon focus on building moonbases for exploration and to a lesser extent for exploitation of lunar resources.

The 1967 Outer Space Treaty defines the Moon and all outer space as the "province of all mankind," restricting the use of the Moon to peaceful purposes and explicitly banning military installations and weapons of mass destruction from the Moon. The landing of U.S. astronauts was seen as a precedent for the superiority of the free-market socioeconomic model of the U.S., and in this case, as the successful model for space flight, exploration, and ultimately human presence in the form of colonization.

After U.S. missions in the 1990s suggested the presence of lunar water ice, its actual discovery in the soil at the lunar poles by Chandrayaan-1 (ISRO) in 2008–2009 renewed interest in the Moon. A range of moonbases have been proposed by states and public actors, with the U.S.-led international Artemis program seeking to establish a state-run orbital lunar way-station in the late 2020s and China proposing with Russia the so-called International Lunar Research Station to be established in the 2030s and aim for an Earth-Moon Space Economic Zone to develop by 2050.

Critics argue that this move to exploitation is colonialist and contrasted with proposals for conservation, collaborative stewardship, and the Declaration of the Rights of the Moon, drawing on the concept of legal personality for non-human entities in space.

For long-term sustainability, a space colony should be close to self-sufficient, with mining and refining the Moon's materials on-site providing an advantage over deliveries from Earth. Space-based materials processing will likely play an important role in the long term, as microgravity in space allows for the processing of materials in ways impossible or difficult on Earth.

The 1979 Moon Treaty

The 1979 Moon Treaty, also known as the Agreement Governing the Activities of States on the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, is a multilateral treaty that turns jurisdiction of all celestial bodies (including the orbits around such bodies) over to participant countries. As of May 2024, 17 states are parties to the treaty. The primary objective of the treaty is to provide the necessary legal principles for governing the behavior of states, international organizations, and individuals who explore celestial bodies other than Earth, as well as administration of the resources that exploration may yield.

National considerations have been a significant factor in the Moon Treaty's legal status. In the United States, the Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space held hearings on the Moon Treaty in 1980, with S. Neil Hosenball being one of the supporters and Leigh Ratiner of the L-5 Society opposing it. Ratiner provided a potential solution to the Moon Treaty, suggesting there should be legal claims to the Moon and a system to register such claims.

The Moon Treaty, a treaty that prohibits sovereignty of "any part" of space, has been a contentious issue in the international community. After eight years of negotiations, the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) held a high-level meeting in June 2018 to produce a consensus on a framework of laws for the sustainable development of outer space. However, it failed to do so, and experts argue that the "national" treaty explicitly allows commercial mining, which is inconsistent with the Moon Treaty and customary international law.

The Moon Treaty, a multilateral agreement between the United States, Russia, and China, has been described as potentially failing if it remains ratified by few countries, particularly those active in space. Only two countries (France and India) with independent spaceflight capabilities have signed but not ratified the treaty. NASA General Counsel S. Neil Hosenball decided in 2018 that negotiation of the rules of this international regime should be delayed until the feasibility of exploitation of lunar resources has been established.

Australia has signed and ratified both the Moon Treaty and the Artemis Accords, which has been in effect since 5 January 2023. An Implementation Agreement for the Moon Treaty has been advocated for to compensate for the shortcomings of the Moon Treaty and to harmonize it with other laws, allowing it to be more widely accepted.

SpaceX plans to establish a permanently manned moonbase using its Starship spacecraft, which will be equipped with landing legs but not heat shields or flaps. SpaceX is a key partner in NASA's Artemis program, which aims to return humans to the Moon by the mid-2020s. The proposed lunar base will include habitats for astronauts, life support systems, and facilities for air and water recycling. SpaceX plans to utilize local materials, such as lunar regolith, for construction through advanced techniques like 3D printing.

NASA's Artemis program aims to return humans to the Moon and establish a sustainable presence there. Launched in 2017, the program aims to land "the first woman and the next man" on the Moon's South Pole by the mid-2020s, focusing on its potential water ice resources. NASA's long-term goal is to create a permanent lunar outpost that will serve as a base for future missions to Mars and beyond. The Lunar Gateway, a small space station orbiting the Moon, will serve as a multi-purpose outpost for crewed missions, logistics, scientific research, and staging points for lunar landings.

The Artemis Accords are a framework for civil exploration and peaceful use of the Moon and other celestial bodies. Key stipulations include peaceful purposes, transparency, resource utilization, international cooperation, heritage preservation, safety zones, registration of space objects, and non-binding nature. Activities conducted by signatories must be conducted for peaceful purposes, in line with the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. However, concerns have been raised about potential claims of sovereignty over lunar resources, particularly from countries like China and Russia.

The U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act of 2015 is a significant step towards legalizing space mining, allowing U.S. citizens and companies to own and sell materials extracted from celestial bodies, including asteroids and the Moon. This marks a departure from previous interpretations of international space law, which generally held outer space resources should be considered the "province of all mankind." Critics argue that the law undermines international consensus on space resource management and could lead to conflicts over extraterrestrial resources.

The Moon Treaty and the Artemis Accords are complex and multifaceted agreements that aim to promote openness and transparency in the field of outer space. While the Accords have faced criticism for their perceived U.S.-centric approach and potential conflicts over extraterrestrial resources, they also provide a framework for responsible exploration and resource utilization on the Moon.

SpaceX plans to establish a permanently manned moonbase using its Starship spacecraft, which will be equipped with landing legs but not heat shields or flaps. The spacecraft will not return to Earth and is a key partner in NASA's Artemis program, which aims to return humans to the Moon by the mid-2020s. The Starship Human Landing System (HLS) will transport astronauts from lunar orbit to the Moon's surface and back, facilitating surface operations essential for establishing a sustainable human presence.

In-situ resource utilization (ISRU) is a significant aspect of SpaceX's lunar plan, focusing on extracting and using lunar resources like water ice for life and fuel production. The proposed lunar base will include habitats for astronauts, life support systems, and facilities for air and water recycling. SpaceX plans to utilize local materials, such as lunar regolith, for construction through advanced techniques like 3D printing. NASA's Artemis program aims to return humans to the Moon and establish a sustainable presence there. Launched in 2017, the program aims to land "the first woman and the next man" on the Moon's South Pole by the mid-2020s, focusing on its potential water ice resources. NASA's long-term goal is to create a permanent lunar outpost that will serve as a base for future missions to Mars and beyond.

The Artemis Accords are a framework for civil exploration and peaceful use of the Moon and other celestial bodies, promoting international cooperation, heritage preservation, safety zones, registration of space objects, and non-binding nature. However, concerns have been raised about potential claims of sovereignty over lunar resources, particularly from countries like China and Russia.

The U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act of 2015 is a significant step towards legalizing space mining, allowing U.S. citizens and companies to own and sell materials extracted from celestial bodies, including asteroids and the Moon. Critics argue that the law undermines international consensus on space resource management and could lead to conflicts over extraterrestrial resources. The act is expected to pave the way for a new era of space exploration and resource extraction, with companies like Planetary Resources and Deep Space Industries planning missions to prospect for valuable minerals and water on asteroids.

Russia’s plans for the Moon Colonization

Russia's lunar colonization plans involve a series of missions aimed at establishing a sustainable presence on the Moon, particularly through collaboration with China. The key components of Russia's lunar strategy include Luna-25, launched in August 2023, which aims to land on the Moon's South Pole and analyze lunar regolith samples in-situ. Luna-26 is planned as an orbital mission to study the Moon from a low polar orbit, providing detailed data about the lunar surface. Luna-27 is a follow-up landing mission that will further investigate the Moon's regolith and potentially include instruments from the European Space Agency (ESA) for enhanced scientific capabilities. Russia is working on establishing the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) in partnership with China, which will be constructed in three phases: research and initial construction, setting up a control center, and operational studies, technology verification, and potentially landing humans on the Moon. Russia and China plan to conduct five joint missions to build the ILRS, including surface modules and orbital elements. The Russian lunar program emphasizes developing new technologies for soft landings and resource utilization, including cryogenic delivery systems and advanced landing techniques. The long-term goals are to exploit lunar resources, particularly water ice found at the Moon's poles, which could support future human habitation and serve as a stepping stone for deeper space exploration. Challenges and delays have been faced due to geopolitical tensions affecting international collaborations.

China’s plans for the Moon colonization.

China is planning to establish the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) in collaboration with Russia, aiming to create a permanent research facility on the Moon. The project will consist of sections on the lunar surface, in lunar orbit, and on Earth. The construction is expected to unfold in two phases: Phase 1: a basic station is planned for completion by 2035, focusing on establishing a foothold near the Moon's South Pole, a region rich in water ice and stable conditions for long-term habitation. Phase 2: the station will be expanded by 2045, enhancing its capabilities for scientific research and resource utilization.

China plans to launch five missions between 2030 and 2035 as part of the construction efforts. The ILRS will facilitate scientific research within a 100 km radius of the lunar South Pole, with plans to expand operations across the Moon by 2050. The base will support long-term scientific studies and exploration efforts, including potential resource extraction.

China aims to utilize lunar regolith (soil) for construction through methods such as 3D printing, with the first bricks made from lunar soil expected during the Chang’e 8 mission, scheduled around 2028. The lunar base is expected to be powered by nuclear energy and solar power, ensuring a sustainable energy supply for operations and habitation.

China's lunar ambitions are tied to its broader goals of becoming a leading space power and contributing significantly to humanity's understanding of space resources. The ILRS is seen as a stepping stone for future crewed missions to Mars.

Other Countries engaging in Moon colonizations projects.

Several countries, including India, the European Space Agency (ESA), Japan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), South Korea, and Israel, have expressed plans for human settlements on the Moon. India's Gaganyaan Mission aims to send its first crewed mission to space, with plans for lunar exploration in the future. The ESA has proposed the concept of a "Moon Village," which envisions a collaborative international effort to establish a human settlement on the Moon. Japan's space agency, JAXA, plans to send astronauts to the Moon by the late 2020s as part of its broader lunar exploration program. The UAE has announced plans for a lunar rover mission called Rashid, set to launch in 2024, indicating its growing interest in lunar activities and potential future human settlement initiatives. South Korea has outlined plans for lunar exploration missions, including sending a lander and rover by 2030.

Israel is actively engaging in lunar exploration and the potential establishment of human settlements on the Moon through its Israel Space Agency (ISA) and the nonprofit organization SpaceIL. Out of over 50 Israeli startups applying for involvement, five have been selected to contribute technologies that could support lunar exploration and potential settlement efforts. Israeli startups are developing various technologies that could be crucial for sustaining human life on the Moon, such as health monitoring systems, robotics, and environmental controls designed to operate in harsh lunar conditions. The Creation-Space Accelerator, launched in Mitzpe Ramon, aims to foster innovation in space technologies and support selected startups with professional guidance and potential financial backing.

Long-term goals include eventual human settlement on Mars, with technologies tested and developed for lunar habitation likely to inform future Martian colonization efforts. Israel's plans for human settlements on the Moon are part of a larger strategy to engage in international space exploration efforts, particularly through NASA's Artemis program.

The Israel Space Agency (ISA) plans to establish human settlements on the Moon through collaborations with organizations like SpaceIL and participation in international lunar exploration efforts. SpaceIL, an Israeli nonprofit organization, is planning ambitious lunar exploration and human settlements on the Moon, aiming to contribute to a sustainable human presence on the Moon through innovative technologies that utilize lunar resources.

The concept of colonizing the Moon for robotic or human exploitation and settlement has been contested as it perpetuates colonialism and its exploitive logic in space. International space law prohibits claiming the Moon, and no state has made such claims. Current projects focus on building moonbases for exploration and resource exploitation.

The Moon is generally considered less risky than Mars for human settlements due to various dangers, including radiation exposure, asteroid impacts, and environmental challenges.

Mars encounters approximately 2.5 to 3 times more potentially hazardous asteroid impacts than Earth, with around 17,000 PHAs potentially impacting or coming close to Mars. The frequency of impacts is estimated at 180 to 260 per year, posing a significant risk to settlements. The Moon's smaller size and distance from Earth reduce the overall risk, with a settlement the size of a football field experiencing an impact every 100 million years.

Environmental challenges on Mars include extreme temperature fluctuations, dust storms, and potential contamination from Martian microbes. The psychological effects of isolation and confinement during long missions also pose significant risks. The Moon's proximity to Earth may facilitate quicker resupply missions and emergency evacuations if necessary.

After U.S. missions in the 1990s suggested the presence of lunar water ice, its actual discovery in the soil at the lunar poles by Chandrayaan-1 (ISRO) in 2008–2009 renewed interest in the Moon. A range of moonbases have been proposed by states and public actors, with the U.S.-led international Artemis program seeking to establish a state-run orbital lunar way-station in the late 2020s and China proposing with Russia the so-called International Lunar Research Station to be established in the 2030s and aim for an Earth-Moon Space Economic Zone to develop by 2050.

The Moon, a planet with a thin atmosphere and magnetic field, is considered less risky than Mars for human settlements due to various dangers, including radiation exposure, asteroid impacts, and environmental challenges. The Moon's thin atmosphere exposes inhabitants to high levels of cosmic radiation, which can lead to increased cancer risk. Solar particle events, similar to the Moon, can cause acute radiation exposure, posing immediate health risks to astronauts during solar storms. Long-term health effects from cumulative radiation exposure necessitate effective shielding strategies, such as using Martian soil for habitat construction.

Asteroid impacts are more frequent, with Mars encountering approximately 2.5 to 3 times more potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) than Earth. The impact rate is significantly higher than previously estimated, suggesting that settlements need robust defenses against frequent meteor strikes. Additionally, about 52 large asteroids cross Mars' orbit annually, which could pose a threat to missions and habitats on the planet.

Understanding these threats is crucial for ensuring the safety and sustainability of life on Mars. Engineering solutions, such as constructing habitats with adequate shielding from radiation and designing structures resilient against meteor impacts, are essential for ensuring the safety and sustainability of life on the Red Planet.

The Moon's thin atmosphere exposes settlers to high levels of cosmic radiation and solar particle events, increasing long-term cancer risks and health issues. Astronauts on the Moon might experience doses around 380 mSv during solar minimum and 110 mSv during solar maximum, significantly higher than the annual dose from cosmic radiation on Earth. Solar particle events, similar to the Moon, can cause acute radiation exposure, posing immediate health risks to astronauts during solar storms. The unpredictability of SPEs complicates risk management strategies for lunar missions.

Secondary radiation, including neutrons and gamma rays, can be produced by interactions between cosmic rays and lunar soil. The average total absorbed dose rate from these particles can be around 13.2 μGy/hour, with a notable contribution from neutral particles. This secondary radiation poses additional health risks that must be mitigated through effective shielding.

Long-term health effects from cumulative radiation exposure increase the risk of various cancers, particularly at doses exceeding 100 mSv. Studies have shown that astronauts could face elevated cancer risks similar to those observed in populations exposed to atomic bomb radiation.

To reduce risks from both radiation and asteroid impacts, lunar habitats may need to be constructed underground or shielded with lunar regolith (the Moon's surface material). Effective engineering solutions, such as subterranean habitats and advanced shielding materials, will be essential for long-term lunar habitation.

The Moon is generally considered less risky than Mars for human settlements due to various dangers, including radiation exposure, asteroid impacts, and environmental challenges. The Moon's smaller size and distance from Earth reduce the overall risk, with a settlement the size of a football field experiencing an impact every 100 million years.

Why the Moon is the Ultimate Frontier for Human Settlement Over Mars ?

The Moon is a more viable candidate for human settlement than Mars due to its proximity, resource availability, and logistical feasibility. The Moon's closer proximity to Earth allows for shorter travel times, reduced radiation exposure, and easier resupply missions. It also requires fewer resources and lower initial investment, making it a more cost-effective base for establishing a sustainable human presence.

The Moon can serve as a testing ground for technologies needed for longer-duration missions to Mars, providing valuable insights into managing life-support systems, habitat construction, and resource utilization.

Human presence on the Moon allows for quicker scientific discoveries compared to robotic missions, enhancing our understanding of lunar geology and resources. While the Moon lacks some resources like water ice, it may still offer valuable materials like Helium-3 for future energy production and lunar regolith could be used in construction and manufacturing processes. Mars, on the other hand, has its own advantages, such as a more Earth-like day-night cycle and potential resources like water ice. However, it also faces challenges such as longer transit risks and more complex life support needs due to its thin atmosphere and greater distance from Earth.

The Moon's proximity, logistical advantages, and potential as a testing ground make it a more immediate candidate for establishing human settlements compared to Mars.