Why USSR Collapsed?
History of USSR
Formation and Early Years (1917-1922)
a) Russian Revolution of 1917: The Bolsheviks, led by Vladimir Lenin, overthrew the provisional government and established a socialist state.
b) Civil War (1917-1922): The Bolsheviks (Red Army) defeated the anti-Bolshevik forces (White Army), leading to the establishment of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1922.
Lenin’s Leadership and NEP (1922-1924)
a) New Economic Policy (NEP): Introduced by Lenin, this policy allowed limited private enterprise to revive the economy.
b) 1924 Constitution: Formalized the union of Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and the Transcaucasian Federation (later Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan).
Stalin’s Era (1924-1953)
a) Joseph Stalin's Rise to Power: After Lenin's death, Stalin consolidated power, becoming the undisputed leader.
b) Five-Year Plans: Focused on rapid industrialization and collectivization, causing significant human suffering but transforming the USSR into an industrial superpower.
c) Great Purge: Late 1930s campaign of political repression, resulting in millions of executions and imprisonments.
d) World War II: The USSR played a crucial role in defeating Nazi Germany, emerging as a superpower and occupying Eastern Europe, which led to the establishment of socialist states aligned with Moscow.
Post-War Era and the Cold War (1945-1991)
a) Cold War Onset: A period of geopolitical and ideological rivalry with the United States, marked by the arms race, space race, and various proxy wars.
b) Nikita Khrushchev’s Reforms (1953-1964): De-Stalinization and some liberalizing reforms, though marked by crises such as the Cuban Missile Crisis.
c) Leonid Brezhnev’s Era (1964-1982): A period of relative stability but economic stagnation and political repression. The Brezhnev Doctrine justified Soviet intervention in socialist countries.
Decline and Dissolution (1985-1991)
a) Mikhail Gorbachev’s Reforms (1985-1991): Introduced glasnost (openness) and perestroika (restructuring), which inadvertently exposed systemic weaknesses and fueled nationalist movements.
b) Economic Troubles: The centrally planned economy struggled with inefficiency and military expenditure, leading to economic decline.
c) Nationalist Movements: Independence movements gained momentum in various republics, with the Baltic States declaring independence first.
d) August Coup (1991): A failed coup by hardline communists weakened the central government, empowering Boris Yeltsin.
e) Dissolution: On December 26, 1991, the USSR was officially dissolved, leading to the formation of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
On January 1, 1991, the Soviet Union was the largest country in the world, covering some 8,650,000 square miles (22,400,000 square km), nearly 1/6th of Earth’s land surface. Its population was more than 290 million with 100 distinct nationalities lived within its borders. It also boasted an arsenal of tens of thousands of nuclear weapons, and its sphere of influence, exerted through such mechanisms as the Warsaw Pact, extended throughout Eastern Europe. Within a year, the Soviet Union had ceased to exist. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was the result of a combination of long-term structural weaknesses, immediate political and economic crises. The Soviet Union (USSR) dissolved on December 26, 1991, and its collapse was caused by a number of factors such as:
1. The military factor: It is a widely held belief that Soviet defense spending accelerated dramatically in response to the presidency of Ronald Reagan and proposals such as the Strategic Defense Initiative. In fact, the Soviet military budget had been trending upward since at least the early 1970s, but Western analysts were left with best guesses in regard to hard numbers. Outside estimates of Soviet military spending ranged between 10-20% of GDP, and, even within the Soviet Union itself, it was difficult to produce an exact accounting because the military budget involved a variety of government ministries, each with its own competing interests. What can be said definitively, however, is that military spending was consistently agnostic of overall economic trends: even when the Soviet economy lagged, the military remained well-funded. In addition, the military took priority when it came to research and development talent. Technological innovators and would-be entrepreneurs who could have helped support Gorbachev’s partial transition to a market economy were instead funneled into defense industries.
Afghanistan fiasco: The Soviet involvement in Afghanistan (1979–89) was a key military factor in the breakup of the USSR. The Soviet army, lionized for its role in World War II and a vital tool in the repression of the Hungarian Revolution and Prague Spring, had waded into a quagmire in a region known as the Graveyard of Empires. As many as a million Soviet troops participated in the 10-year occupation, and approximately 15,000 were killed and thousands more were wounded. More than a million Afghans—mostly civilians—were killed, and at least 4 million were externally displaced by the fighting. The army that had bested Hitler and crushed dissent during the Cold War found itself frustrated by mujahedeen armed with American surface-to-air missiles. As long as the government controlled the press, dissent about the war in Afghanistan remained muted, but glasnost opened the door to the vocalization of widespread war weariness.
The army, perhaps the single most powerful opponent of Gorbachev’s reform efforts, found itself back-footed by the stalemate in Afghanistan, and it lost whatever leverage it might have had in checking the advance of perestroika. In the Soviet republics, the Afgantsy (veterans of the Afghan conflict) agitated against what they perceived to be Moscow’s war. Many soldiers from the Central Asian republics felt closer ethnic and religious ties to Afghans than they did to Russians, and protests were widespread. In the European republics, the cleavage with Moscow was even more dramatic. Antiwar demonstrations broke out in Ukraine, while opposition forces in the Baltic republics viewed the war in Afghanistan through the lens of the Russian occupation of their own countries. This fueled the secessionist movements that proceeded, largely unchecked, to declarations of independence by all three Baltic States in 1990.
2. Political and Social Issues
a) Demographic Upheavals: Fertility and life expectancy have changed dramatically since the breakup of the Soviet republics in 1991 and continue to change very rapidly. Before 1991, the USSR was the fastest-growing developed country in the world, with annual growth rates in the mid-1980s at 0.9%, compared to only 0.1% in Europe and 1.1% in the US. Immigration did not greatly affect the USSR's growth rate. By 1993, the population had declined in 8 of the 15 former republics. Deaths exceeded births in Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Estonia, and Latvia, followed by Lithuania in 1994. The last census was conducted in 1989. Fertility declined in Russia from 1.9 in 1990 to 1.4 in 1993. Fertility was low in Lithuania at 1.7, in Ukraine at 1.6, in Latvia at 1.5, and in Estonia at 1.4. Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan experienced fertility decline, which was affected by emigration to Russia and other countries after 1990. In 1990, 25 million Russians resided in the former republics. In Kazakhstan, the 160,000 more births than deaths were offset by 200,000 emigrants. Central republics with higher fertility experienced declines after 1990; for example, Kyrgyzstan declined from 3.7 in 1990 to 3.3 in 1993. Life expectancy for males in Russia in 1993 was 58.9 years, down from 63.8 years in 1990. About 50% of the decline in life expectancy was due to circulatory diseases, and about 25% was due to external causes such as accidents, suicide, and alcoholism. Infant mortality increased since 1990; for example, it rose in Ukraine from 12.9 in 1990 to 14.1 in 1992. Russia's population in 1993 experienced 700,000 more deaths than births. The demographic impact will be declining school enrollments and a smaller working population to support the aging populace.
b) Protest Activity: In the years leading up to the dissolution, various protests and resistance movements took hold throughout the Soviet Union, which were variously suppressed or tolerated. These protests reflected widespread dissatisfaction with the political and economic conditions in the country.
c) Political Repression and Lack of Freedoms: The Soviet regime was highly repressive, limiting political freedoms and personal liberties. This bred widespread dissatisfaction and dissent among the population. The unsuccessful August 1991 coup against Gorbachev sealed the fate of the Soviet Union. Planned by hardline Communists, the coup diminished Gorbachev’s power and propelled Yeltsin and the democratic forces to the forefront of Soviet and Russian politics. Gorbachev’s decision to allow elections with a multi-party system and create a presidency for the Soviet Union began a slow process of democratization that eventually destabilized Communist control and contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
d) Ethnic and Nationalist Tensions: The USSR was a multi-ethnic state, and various ethnic groups harbored nationalist sentiments. The central government struggled to manage these tensions, which eventually contributed to the union's disintegration. The process began with growing unrest in the country's various constituent national republics, developing into an incessant political and legislative conflict between them and the central government. Estonia was the first Soviet republic to declare state sovereignty inside the Union on November 16, 1988. Lithuania was the first republic to declare full independence from the Soviet Union by the Act of March 11, 1990, with its Baltic neighbors and the Southern Caucasus republic of Georgia joining it over the next two months.
e) Desire for Reform: By the 1980s, there was a strong desire for political and economic reform among Soviet citizens. The rigid system could not adapt to these pressures without fundamental changes. Gorbachev's policies of perestroika and glasnost were attempts to address these demands but ultimately destabilized the existing political structure.
f) Political Pressures: Gorbachev faced conflicting political pressures from Boris Yeltsin and the pluralist movement, who wanted rapid economic reforms, and the Communist elite, who sought to thwart his reforms. This internal political conflict further weakened the central government's ability to manage the country's affairs.
g) Anti-Communist Uprisings: The Soviet Union experienced anti-communist uprisings after the death of Stalin in 1953. These uprisings were often brutally suppressed, but they reflected deep-seated opposition to the Communist regime. In the later years of the Soviet Union, these uprisings reemerged, fueled by economic hardships and the desire for greater political freedoms, contributing to the eventual collapse of the USSR.
3. Gorbachev’s Reforms
a) Perestroika (Restructuring): Initiated by Mikhail Gorbachev, perestroika aimed to decentralize the economy and introduce limited market mechanisms. However, these reforms were implemented too slowly and inconsistently to resolve the deep-seated economic problems. The partial and uneven application of market principles led to economic dislocation and exacerbated shortages, failing to deliver the intended revitalization of the Soviet economy.
b) Glasnost (Openness): Glasnost was a policy aimed at increasing transparency and freedom of information. While it allowed for greater freedom of expression, it also exposed the severity of the USSR’s problems, increasing public dissatisfaction and weakening the Communist Party's control. As the media began to uncover and discuss previously censored issues such as government corruption, economic mismanagement, and historical injustices, public trust in the government eroded significantly.
c) Democratization: Mikhail Gorbachev's reforms to allow multi-party elections and create a presidency began a process of democratization. However, the Communist elite resisted these reforms, creating significant political tension. The move towards a more open political system weakened the centralized control of the Communist Party, enabling the rise of nationalist and separatist movements within the republics, further destabilizing the union.
d) Nuclear Factors: The Chernobyl power station explosion in 1986 was a significant factor that contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union. The disaster highlighted the inefficiencies and dangers of the Soviet system, both domestically and internationally. The handling of the crisis, characterized by initial secrecy and a slow response, further damaged the credibility of the Soviet leadership. The aftermath of Chernobyl strained the already faltering economy and diverted resources and attention away from the critical reforms that were expected to save the Soviet Union.
4. External Pressures
Arms Race with the United States: The Soviet Union devoted a significant portion of its GDP to military spending in an effort to keep up with the United States. This arms race strained the Soviet economy and diverted resources from civilian needs.
Economic Competition: The success of Western economies particularly that of the United States, highlighted the shortcomings of the Soviet economic model. The prosperity in the West contrasted sharply with the stagnation in the USSR, exacerbating internal discontent.
5. Collapse of Eastern European Communist Regimes
Loss of Control over Eastern Europe: In 1989, a wave of revolutions swept through Eastern Europe, toppling Communist governments. The USSR’s loss of control over its satellite states in Eastern Europe demonstrated the weakening of Soviet influence and emboldened reformers and separatists within the USSR.
6. Failed Coup and Disintegration
August Coup of 1991: A coup attempt by hardline Communists in August 1991 aimed to halt Gorbachev's reforms and restore strict central control. The coup failed, but it significantly weakened Gorbachev's authority and accelerated the momentum towards independence movements within various Soviet republics.
Declaration of Independence by Republics: Following the failed coup, several Soviet republics declared independence. This movement culminated in the dissolution of the USSR on December 26, 1991, when the Soviet flag was lowered from the Kremlin for the last time.
The collapse of the Soviet Union was the result of a complex interplay of economic inefficiencies, political repression, social unrest, reformist pressures, external competition, and nationalist movements. Gorbachev’s reforms, while well-intentioned, could not resolve these deep-rooted issues and ultimately hastened the dissolution of the USSR.
Why USSR Collapsed Economically?
The economic collapse of the Soviet Union was the result of a combination of systemic inefficiencies, failed reforms, external pressures, and internal mismanagement. Here are the key factors that contributed to the economic downfall:
1. Centralized Planning and Inefficiencies
Bureaucratic Inefficiency: The centrally planned economy was highly bureaucratic, with decisions made by central authorities rather than market forces. This often led to poor resource allocation, underproduction, and overproduction, resulting in widespread inefficiencies.
Lack of Innovation: The command economy stifled innovation and entrepreneurship. The absence of competition and profit incentives meant there was little motivation to improve products, services, or production techniques.
Poor Quality of Goods: The focus on meeting production quotas rather than consumer demand led to the production of low-quality goods that were often not suitable for use. This further eroded public confidence in the economic system.
2. Agricultural Problems
Collectivization and Inefficiency: Soviet agriculture was based on collective and state farms, which were notoriously inefficient. The lack of private ownership reduced incentives for productivity, leading to chronic food shortages and reliance on grain imports from the West.
Environmental Degradation: Poor agricultural practices led to soil degradation and environmental damage, further reducing the productivity of Soviet agriculture.
3. Military Spending
Arms Race with the West: The Soviet Union devoted a significant portion of its GDP to military spending to compete with the United States and NATO. This diverted resources away from consumer goods and investment in the civilian economy.
Afghan War: The costly and prolonged war in Afghanistan (1979-1989) drained Soviet resources, both financially and in terms of human lives, contributing to economic strain.
4. Inefficient Industrial Sector
Outdated Technology: The Soviet industrial sector relied on outdated technology and machinery, leading to low productivity and high costs. The lack of technological advancement made it difficult for the Soviet economy to keep pace with the rapidly advancing economies of the West.
Energy Inefficiency: The Soviet economy was heavily reliant on energy-intensive industries. Inefficient energy use and overreliance on oil and gas exports made the economy vulnerable to fluctuations in global energy prices.
5. External Economic Pressures
Trade Restrictions: Western countries imposed trade restrictions and technology embargoes on the Soviet Union, limiting its access to advanced technology and investment.
Economic Competition: The economic success of Western countries, particularly the United States, highlighted the inefficiencies of the Soviet economic model. The disparity in living standards became increasingly apparent, fostering discontent among Soviet citizens.
6. Structural Problems
Inflexible Economic Structure: The Soviet economic structure was highly inflexible, with little capacity to adapt to changing circumstances. This rigidity made it difficult to respond effectively to economic crises.
Corruption and Black Market: Widespread corruption and the growth of a black market undermined the official economy. The black market thrived due to shortages of consumer goods, further eroding the legitimacy of the state-controlled economy.
7. Declining Oil Prices
Oil Price Collapse: The Soviet economy was heavily dependent on oil and gas exports. The collapse of oil prices in the 1980s significantly reduced export revenues, exacerbating economic difficulties.
8. Collapse of Russian currency led to economic collapse of USSR
The collapse of the Soviet Union's currency, the ruble, indeed played a significant role in the broader economic collapse of the USSR. Here are the key factors and mechanisms by which the currency crisis contributed to the overall economic downfall:
a. Inflation and Hyperinflation
Price Controls and Shortages: The Soviet economy was characterized by extensive price controls, which led to widespread shortages. When these controls were lifted in the late 1980s, prices soared, leading to inflation.
Loose Monetary Policy: The government often resorted to printing money to cover budget deficits, which fueled inflation. By the late 1980s and early 1990s, the ruble's value plummeted as hyperinflation set in, eroding savings and purchasing power.
b. Loss of Public Confidence
Devaluation of Savings: As inflation soared, the real value of people's savings eroded rapidly. The public lost confidence in the ruble and in the government's ability to manage the economy effectively.
Shift to Hard Currencies: People and businesses increasingly sought to hold hard currencies like the US dollar or German mark, further undermining the ruble's value. This shift exacerbated the currency crisis as confidence in the ruble continued to deteriorate.
c. External Debt and Balance of Payments
Debt Repayments: The Soviet Union had accumulated significant external debt. As the ruble weakened, the cost of servicing this debt, often denominated in hard currencies, increased substantially, putting additional pressure on the economy.
Trade Imbalances: The weak ruble made imports more expensive while reducing the competitiveness of Soviet exports. The trade balance deteriorated, leading to further depletion of hard currency reserves.
d. Economic Reforms and Market Transition
Gorbachev’s Reforms: Gorbachev’s perestroika reforms, which aimed to introduce market mechanisms into the Soviet economy, destabilized the existing economic structure. The partial liberalization created chaos without establishing a fully functional market economy.
Disintegration of Central Control: As central control weakened, republics within the USSR began to assert economic independence, creating a patchwork of economic policies and currencies. This further undermined the coherence of the Soviet economic system and the stability of the ruble.
e. Breakdown of Supply Chains
Disintegration of the Union: As the Soviet Union began to fragment, internal trade and supply chains broke down. Republics and regions started to hoard resources, exacerbating shortages and economic instability.
Barter and Black Markets: With the ruble losing value rapidly, barter and black markets flourished as people sought alternative means of exchange. This informal economy operated outside the official channels, further eroding the tax base and economic control.
f. Political Instability and Economic Chaos
Coup Attempt and Political Turmoil: The failed coup in August 1991 accelerated the disintegration of central authority. Political instability further eroded confidence in the ruble and the broader economy.
Collapse of Central Institutions: The collapse of central institutions and the declaration of independence by various Soviet republics led to economic fragmentation. The resulting chaos severely disrupted economic activities and contributed to the collapse of the currency.
The collapse of the Soviet ruble was both a symptom and a cause of the broader economic collapse of the USSR. Hyperinflation, loss of public confidence, rising external debt, and the breakdown of central economic control all intertwined to create a vicious cycle of economic decline. Gorbachev's reforms, while aimed at revitalizing the economy, destabilized the existing structures without successfully transitioning to a market economy. The resulting economic chaos and currency collapse played a crucial role in the ultimate disintegration of the Soviet Union.
The economic collapse of the Soviet Union was driven by a combination of systemic inefficiencies, poor resource allocation, heavy military expenditure, ineffective reforms, and external economic pressures. The centralized planning system failed to innovate and adapt, leading to widespread economic stagnation and eventual collapse. Gorbachev's attempts at reform, while well-intentioned, were too little and too late to address the deep-rooted economic issues.
USA's role in USSR Collapse
The United States played a significant role in the collapse of the Soviet Union, though it was not the sole factor. The interplay of various U.S. policies and actions contributed to the weakening of the Soviet state in several ways:
1. Economic Pressure:
a) Arms Race and Defense Spending: The United States engaged in an arms race with the Soviet Union, particularly during the Reagan administration. The Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), also known as "Star Wars," was a proposed missile defense system that put pressure on the Soviet economy. The USSR, striving to keep up, allocated a large portion of its GDP to military spending, straining its already inefficient economy.
b) Economic Sanctions and Restrictions: The U.S. imposed various economic sanctions on the USSR, limiting its access to Western technology and financial markets. This hindered Soviet economic growth and technological advancement.
2. Diplomatic and Psychological Warfare
a) Support for Dissidents and Opposition Movements: The United States supported dissident movements within the Soviet Union and its satellite states through diplomatic channels and covert operations. This support bolstered morale and legitimacy for groups opposing Soviet rule.
b) Promotion of Human Rights: The U.S. consistently highlighted the USSR's human rights abuses on international platforms, which increased internal and external pressure on the Soviet government to reform.
3. Propaganda and Ideological Influence
a) Information Campaigns: The U.S. engaged in extensive propaganda campaigns to undermine the ideological legitimacy of the Soviet regime. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Voice of America, and other broadcasting services transmitted Western viewpoints and news into the Eastern Bloc, exposing Soviet citizens to alternative perspectives and information.
b) Cultural Diplomacy: American culture, through movies, music, and consumer goods, was a powerful tool in demonstrating the material and cultural prosperity of the West compared to the Soviet Union. This cultural influence contributed to a sense of dissatisfaction and desire for change among the Soviet populace.
4. Diplomatic Strategies
a) Détente and Later Hardline Policies: The U.S. initially pursued a policy of détente in the 1970s, which involved the easing of tensions and some cooperation. However, the invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 marked a shift to a more confrontational stance, culminating in the Reagan administration's hardline policies aimed at rolling back Soviet influence.
b) Strategic Alliances and Support: The U.S. built strategic alliances and provided support to anti-Soviet regimes and movements around the world, such as funding the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan. These actions drained Soviet resources and morale.
5. Encouraging Soviet Reforms
Engagement with Gorbachev: The U.S. engaged with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, who introduced significant reforms like perestroika (economic restructuring) and glasnost (openness). American leaders, particularly President Ronald Reagan, encouraged these reforms, which ultimately contributed to the weakening of the Soviet state's control over its society and economy.
6. Economic and Technological Competition
a) Technological Embargoes: The U.S. restricted the transfer of advanced technology to the Soviet Union through export controls, impeding Soviet technological and industrial advancement.
b) Economic Competitiveness: The vibrant and growing U.S. economy, characterized by innovation and consumer prosperity, stood in stark contrast to the stagnant Soviet economy. This economic competition underscored the inefficiencies of the Soviet system and inspired demands for change within the USSR.
Aftermath of the USSR Collapse
The collapse of the USSR transformed the global geopolitical landscape, leading to a period of unchallenged US dominance that has gradually evolved into a more complex and contested international environment. The US continues to play a crucial role in global affairs, but it now faces significant challenges from other rising powers, necessitating a more nuanced and adaptive foreign policy. Impacts are:
a) Emergence of the US as the Sole Superpower: The collapse of the USSR in 1991 marked the end of the Cold War, leaving the United States as the only global superpower. This seismic shift in the global power structure had profound implications for international relations. The ideological confrontation between capitalism and communism that had defined much of the 20th century was replaced by a unipolar world order dominated by the US. This newfound dominance allowed the US to exert unparalleled influence on global affairs, shaping international policies and norms according to its strategic interests and values.
b) Weakening of Communism: The dissolution of the Soviet Union significantly weakened the global communist movement. Without the USSR as a leading beacon, many communist and socialist states lost ideological and financial support. This led to a wave of political transformations and the adoption of market-oriented reforms in many former Soviet states and other countries influenced by Soviet ideology. The decline of communism also opened the door for the spread of democracy and liberal economic policies, particularly in Eastern Europe and parts of Asia.
c) Emergence of Regional Conflicts: The vacuum left by the USSR's collapse led to the emergence of numerous regional conflicts. Many former Soviet republics and satellite states experienced internal strife, ethnic conflicts, and struggles for independence. Notable examples include the conflicts in the Balkans, the Caucasus (such as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict), and civil wars in former Soviet states like Tajikistan and Georgia. The lack of a strong central power to mediate these conflicts allowed them to escalate, often drawing in international involvement.
d) US as International Enforcer: In the absence of a counterbalancing superpower, the United States assumed the role of the global enforcer, intervening in international conflicts to maintain stability and promote its interests. This often occurred without the explicit support or authorization of the United Nations. Notable interventions included the Gulf War in 1991, the NATO-led bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999, and the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 following the September 11 attacks.
e) Shift in US Foreign Policy: In recent years, however, the rise of China and the resurgence of Russia as significant global players have challenged US dominance. This shift has led to a change in US foreign policy from direct military interventions, as seen in Afghanistan and Iraq, to more indirect approaches. In conflicts such as those in Syria and Libya, the US has preferred to support local forces and allies rather than deploying large numbers of American troops. This strategy, often involving economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and support for proxy forces, reflects a more cautious and multifaceted approach to maintaining US influence while managing the complexities of a multipolar world.
f) Rising Influence of China and Russia: China's rapid economic growth and Russia's assertive foreign policy have reintroduced elements of strategic rivalry and competition on the global stage. China's Belt and Road Initiative and military modernization efforts, along with Russia's actions in Ukraine and Syria, have signaled their ambitions to reshape the international order. These developments have prompted the US to adapt its strategies, emphasizing alliances, economic measures, and selective engagement to counterbalance the influence of these emerging powers.