Why We Aren't Overreacting - A Lesson From 1918

Over the last week, our world has been turned upside down because of the spread of the global pandemic Coronavirus (COVID-19).

It started with calls for hand washing and social distancing, and quickly evolved to mandatory remote work, school closures, and canceling large events.

SXSW, the Coachella Music Festival, professional Basketball, Baseball, and Hockey games have all been postponed or canceled.

The CDC has said the best way to slow the spread of the virus is to stay apart. To not gather. Especially in large groups.

Today… New York, Chicago, and Philadelphia canceled their St. Patrick’s Day parades.

It is clear that social distancing and handwashing alone are not enough.

But is this all an overreaction?

To answer this let's look back at history.

The year was 1918. We were in the middle of the 1st World War.

On September 28th, 200,000 people crowded the streets of Philadelphia to attend the city’s largest parade ever.

The purpose of the parade was to sell war bond and citizens were encouraged to attend as Patriotic Americans.

In days preceding the event, over a hundred people in Philadelphia had come down with a mysterious illness that was rapidly spreading from military bases

At least 600 soldiers near the city were suffering from the illness.

Health officials were aware of the risks associated with holding the event in the midst of an outbreak. They even warned that thousands of cases may develop, which could accelerate the spread to a point that it would become out of control.

Despite the clear risks, the decision was made to hold the event.

Fearful of causing widespread panic, Philadelphia’s public health director misinformed the public by stating they infection was simply the normal flu.

If was not. This mysterious illness was the Spanish Flu, a form of deadly influenza that first showed up in March of that year but had subsided during the summer months. As it returned that fall it was even more lethal than before.

To help limit the spread, Philadephia's city officials distributed thousands of fliers reminding citizens to cover their mouths when sneezing to avoid catching the flu.

Unfortunately, the notice did little to help. Within days of the parade, All 31 of the city’s hospitals were completely filled. Thousands were infected.

After one week, 45,000 were infected.

759 people died on a single day.

After just six weeks, over 12,000 were dead.

It is estimated that 50-100 million people died worldwide from the Spanish Flu. That is more than World War 1 & 2 and every major war since then combined. 675,000 died in the United States and Philadelphia was one of the hardest-hit cities.

By contrast, the city St. Luis took a very different approach once they heard of the flu's resurgence.

The health commissioner quickly closed schools and banned all public gatherings.

The measure that commissioner and city officials took helped to “flatten the curve” of infection spread. This helped to ensure that health care providers had the capacity to treat the ill.

At the time, there was pushback from business owners and citizens. But when the number of infected increased as predicted, thousands of sick residents were treated at home by volunteer nurses.

Because of these precautions, which at the time seemed like an overreaction, St. Louis was able to keep the flu epidemic from exploding overnight as it did in Philadelphia.

Here we are a century later, and we are in the midst of a global pandemic that is spreading exponentially. While we have yet to determine a definitive mortality rate we do know that the virus is spreading quickly.

So quickly in some areas like Italy and Iran that medical personnel is being challenged to care for everyone that has fallen ill. Triage based decisions are being made and sometimes the decision has to be made on whom to save and whom to let die.

Fortunately, this virus is different from the Spanish Flu as it seems to spare children and our healthy younger population. But it seems to be especially difficult for the older population and those with pre-existing conditions.

We had to a choice, to cancel large gatherings or to continue with life as normal.

With leadership from businesses and government, the decisions were made to limit any events that would contribute to the virus spreading.

While this may have seemed like an overreaction when looking at the current number of infected, this decision is more about what the spread would look like if we did not act quickly. Looking at the numbers today could be a grave mistake.

The ironic reality is we will never know what it would look like if we didn’t take these aggressive actions.

And that is okay.

I would rather overreact than underreact.

Our economy will come back.

Sports games will resume.

We will have a chance to go to concerts again.

A human life that is gone will never come back.

#StandTogetherWhileApart