Winners and Losers in the House Leadership contest

Before the Washington Post and Washington Examiner publish their inevitable commentaries on who won and who lost in the recent US House leadership contest, American Leadership Review will attempt to slide its word in edgewise.

After three weeks of encapsulating the rocketing careers of American Republican leaders, only to watch them flame out and crash back to Earth, we cannot resist the opportunity to provide a postmortem, while unearthing the remains of the day. 

Winners

Scalise

Rep. Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana), the House Majority Leader.  Scalise was the first aspirant to the Speakership to win the nomination of the Republican Caucus after Speaker Kevin McCarthy's downfall. He quickly calculated that he could not win on the floor of the House and bowed out of the race, preserving his honor and reputation. Unlike his successor, Scalise could count votes.

Scalise’s candidacy was sunk by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s allies, yet his position within the Republican Party is ultimately strengthened by the ascendency of fellow Louisiana Representative Mike Johnson to the Speakership.  Johnson is a relative neophyte, having limited experience with leadership in the House. He will lean hard on Scalise’s experience and network to fulfil his new role. 

Scalise may emerge as the strongest House Majority Leader since Tom Delay, who served as Republican Majority Leader from 2003 to 2005 under Speaker Rep. Dennis Hastert.

Stefanik

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Louisiana), Chair of the House Republican Conference, the 4th ranking Republican in the House.  Stefanik entered Johnson’s name into nomination for the Speakership and managed the Republican Conference sessions where each Speaker-nominee was elected to stand, without appearing to be partial to any side in the conflicts which rent the House Republicans.  Merely 39 years old, Stefanik has a long career in leadership ahead of her.

Johnson

Rep. Mike Johnson, now Speaker of the House.  While Republicans are licking their wounds, Johnson will have enough of a honeymoon to pass a resolution supporting Israel in its war with Hamas and pushing through a continuing resolution to keep the Federal government open past November 17, 2023.  He will need to negotiate with Senate Republicans on President Biden’s request for a $106 billion emergency appropriation for Israeli, Ukraine, Taiwan and US Border Security, having already announced his opposition to additional miliary and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

Losers

McCarthy

Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-California), who was ousted three weeks ago by eight rebels within the Republican Party, repeatedly tried to reinsert himself into the Speaker’s contest, first by blocking his Party’s pick of Scalise, then suggesting he be re-elected as Speaker with Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) as his deputy, if all else failed.  All else did not fail and McCarthy’s overweening ambition to retain power will cost him respect among the new House leadership.  Expect McCarthy to retire from the Congress early.

Emmer

Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minnesota), the House Majority Whip, also exited early after his campaign was bazooka’ed by the intervention of former President Donald Trump, who called Emmer a “globalist RINO”. Ouch!

Jordan

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) was endorsed by Trump for the Speakership but couldn’t seal the deal in three votes on the floor of House, each more painful than the last as his support continued to slip in full public view.  Jordan’s tactics were questionable and triggered intense opposition from within the Conference to his candidacy. Yet more revealing is the sheer lack of love for the Republican firebrand, in spite of his faction, in the form of Freedom Caucus ally Johnson, ultimately prevailing over more moderate Republican candidates. 

Trump

Ex-POTUS Donald Trump, who had endorsed Jordan for the Speakership, failed to pull Jordan over the line. Trump’s power proved only to be toxic to Emmer.

After Johnson’s election, Trump claimed credit for the lawmaker’s victory. Few will be fooled by his braggadocio.

Trump’s power is purely negative, the kiss of death for anyone who dares to touch his tarnished golden ring.

Jim Jordan, Mike Pence, and Rudy Giuliani take note.