wknd notes: The Importance of Standing Up

Dusted off an anecdote for Memorial Day, written in 2013, on the importance of standing up. Back next Sunday with full wknd notes. All the very best, E

Week-in-Review: Mon: Iran’s President Raisi and foreign minister die in helicopter crash – no foul play reported, Israel’s Gantz says he’s leaving war cabinet unless there’s a new Gaza plan, ICC’s chief prosecutor seeking arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Sinwar for war crimes, Saudi Arabia’s MBS cancels trip amid King’s failing health, S. Africa’s Constitutional Court ruled that Zuma cannot run for parliament, Fed’s Mester back tracks from 3 cut expectation – sees neutral rate higher than it used to be / Daly says no urgency to cut rates / Jefferson found April CPI encouraging / Bostic sees economy slowing slowly, BOE’s Broadbent sees rate cuts over the summer, Riksbank’s Thedeen says June cut not the base case, China 1y & 5y LPR unch as exp, S&P +0.1%; Tue: Hungary CB cuts 50bp as exp, Fed’s Waller says ‘several more’ (3 to 5) months of good infl data needed before a cut / only one cut doesn’t make sense, Fed’s Collins needs more data to cut rates, RBA mins show they discussed hiking but decided to remain on hold for now, ECB’s Lagarde confident infl under control / strong likelihood of June cut, ASML and TMSC assure US officials they can disable key chipmaking machines remotely in the event China invades Taiwan, Germany PPI -3.3% (-3.1%e), EU trade bal 17.3b (20b exp), EU labor costs 1Q 4.9% (3.4%p), Canada CPI 2.7% as exp / trimmed mean 2.9% as exp, S&P +0.3%; Wed: NVDA beats big after hours / announces 10:1 stock split, UK announces elections to be held on July 4th, FOMC mins show ‘various’ participants willing to tighten more if needed / marginally hawkish overall, RBNZ surprisingly hawkish / says it discussed rate hikes and concerned about sticky infl / lift OCR track, Indonesia CB unch as exp, Israel recalls envoys to Spain / Ireland / and Norway as they commit to recognize Palestinian state, Japan Expts 8.3% (11.0%e) / Impts 8.3% (8.9%e) / core machine orders 2.7% (1.4%e), UK CPI 2.3% (2.1%e) / Core 3.9% (3.6%e) / RPI 3.3% as exp, US Existing home sales 4.14m (4.23m e), Argentina Economic activity index -8.4% (-7.3%e), S&P -0.3%; Thu: CBRT unch as exp, Chile CB cuts 50bp as exp, BOK unch as exp, ECB’s Villeroy remains confident in the disinflationary process, PBOC sets yuan fixing at highest rate since January, AAA rated CMBS buyers suffered their first loss since the financial crisis, Nikki Haley said she will vote for Trump, Macron visits New Caledonia amid violent protests, Russia exceeded its April oil production quota, EU mfg PMI flash 47.4 (46.1e) / serv 53.3 (53.6e) / comp 52.3 (52e), UK mfg PMI flash 51.3 (49.5e) / serv 52.9 (54.7e) / comp 52.8 (54e), Mexico eco activity -1.33% (-1.03%e), US Chicago Fed nat’l activity -0.23 (0.13e), US init claims 215k (220k exp), US PMI flash mfg 50.9 (49.9e) / serv 54.8 (51.2e) / comp 54.4 (51.2e), US new home sales 634k (678k exp), S&P -0.7%; Fri: China conducts 2day military drills around Taiwan – seen as a show of force to newly inaugurated Taiwanese president, China real estate sector sells off aggressively – testing the resolve of the market following last week’s property announcements, Fed’s Waller warns that unsustainable fiscal spending could reverse the decline in R* experienced over the past decades, UN orders Israel to immediately halt military operations in Rafah, UK cons conf -17 (-18e), Japan CPI 2.5% (2.4%e) / Core CPI 2.4% as exp, UK ret sales -3% (-1.1%e), US durable goods 0.7% MoM (-0.8%e), US UofM sentiment 69.1 (67.7e) / 1y infl exp 3.3% (3.4%e) / 5-10y infl exp 3% (3.1%e), S&P +0.7%.

Weekly Close: S&P 500 +0.03% and VIX -0.06 at +11.93. Nikkei -0.4%, Shanghai -2.1%, Euro Stoxx -0.5%, Bovespa -3.0%, MSCI World -0.3%, and MSCI Emerging -0.8%. USD rose +1.5% vs Chile, +1.4% vs South Africa, +1.2% vs Brazil, +1.0% vs Australia, +0.9% vs Yen, +0.5% vs Mexico, +0.4% vs Canada, +0.3% vs China, +0.2% vs Indonesia, and +0.2% vs Euro. USD fell -16.9% vs Ethereum, -1.8% vs Bitcoin, -0.8% vs Russia, -0.5% vs Sweden, -0.3% vs India, -0.3% vs Sterling, and flat vs Turkey. Gold -3.4%, Silver -2.4%, Oil -2.3%, Copper -5.9%, Iron Ore +2.4%, Corn +2.7%. 10yr Inflations Breakevens (EU -1bp at 2.08%, US flat at 2.33%, JP +8bps at 1.55%, and UK -1bp at 3.73%). 2yr Notes +12bps at 4.95% and 10yr Notes +4bps at 4.47%.

2024 Year-to-Date Close: Argentina +48.5% priced in US dollars (+63.6% priced in pesos), Turkey +31% priced in US dollars (+42.9% priced in lira), Denmark +18.7% priced in dollars (+21.2% in krone), Colombia +16.5% in dollars (+17.8% in pesos), Netherlands +14% (+16.3%), Taiwan +14% (+20.3%), NASDAQ +12.7% in dollars, Ireland +12.7% (+15%), Greece +12% (+14.3%), Poland +11.9% (+11.8%), Italy +11.4% (+13.6%), Venezuela +11.4% (+13.7%), S&P 500 +11.2% in dollars, Hungary +10.9% (+13.6%), Russia +9.7% (+9.6%), Germany +9.4% (+11.6%), MSCI World +9.2% in dollars, Euro Stoxx 50 +9.2% (+11.4%), Spain +9.1% (+11.3%), HK +9.1% (+9.2%), Czech Republic +8.5% (+10.5%), Malaysia +8.4% (+11.3%), UK +7.3% (+7.6%), Austria +6.9% (+9.1%), Norway +6.8% (+11.7%), Chile +6.6% (+9.3%), India +5.8% (+5.6%), France +5.2% (+7.3%), Belgium +5% (+7.1%), Japan +3.7% (+15.5%), Sweden +3.1% (+9.5%), Canada +3% (+6.5%), South Africa +2.4% (+3.2%), Russell +2.1% in dollars, China +1.8% (+3.8%), Israel +1.8% (+4.1%), Saudi Arabia +0.2% (+0.2%), Finland +0.2% (+2.2%), Singapore +0% (+2.4%), Australia -1.3% (+1.8%), Switzerland -1.7% (+7.1%), Mexico -2.1% (-3.4%), Portugal -2.1% (-0.1%), Philippines -2.3% (+2.6%), New Zealand -3.4% (+0.1%), Korea -4.6% (+1.2%), Indonesia -4.6% (-0.7%), UAE -7.8% (-7.8%), Thailand -10.1% (-3.6%), Brazil -12.7% (-7.4%).

Anecdote (Sept. 2013): “They came first for the Communists, and I didn’t speak up because I wasn’t a Communist,” whispered the bold black letters, engraved in granite. And recognizing the quote, I reached for Jackson’s shoulder, drew him close. You see we were in Boston, wandering. And had happened upon what appeared to be an artistic installation of unusual beauty. Grace. “Then they came for the Jews, and I didn’t speak up because I wasn’t a Jew.” As my son and I read from the cold stone, I could feel the spirit of solemnity descend upon his body. He’s nearly twelve, and as we walked through the memorial, simple, striking, my younger children played innocently amongst its six glass towers (Auschwitz-Birkenau, Belzec, Sobibor, Majdanek, Treblinka, Chelmno) engraved with the serial numbers of many millions of silenced souls. “Then they came for the trade unionists, and I didn’t speak up because I wasn’t a trade unionist.” As fate would have it, Mara and I had just been discussing American Exceptionalism. Manifest Destiny. For all our mistakes, how dark the world would be without a Shining City on the Hill. And Syria – the inhuman horrors of civil war, its unique complexity, the impossibly difficult choices we now face. As Jackson listened, intently. “Then they came for the Catholics, and I didn’t speak up because I was a Protestant.” These topics have a particular hold on our family, because Mara’s grandparents were Russian Jews. Refugees. So I whispered to Jackson that he must always stand for the weak, the innocent, in the face of the bully. To hell with the consequences. How it all starts there. He leaned in closer, and having read every word, we walked away, softly, in silence. “Then they came for me, and by that time no one was left to speak up.”

Good luck out there,

Eric Peters

Chief Investment Officer

One River Asset Management

Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.