Years of Attrition – Running In Place: 1915/16 & 2023/? (Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine #359b)

It is 1915 all over again. That date could just as easily be changed to 1916. Those two years are the most anonymous in the history of World War I. It is much easier to remember the year in which the war started. I cannot count how many times I have read about the beautiful European summer of 1914 which was abruptly interrupted by the Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo. This was then followed by the summer long march to war. 1917 is another year from the war that has gotten plenty of recognition due to the Russian Revolution. So has 1918. We were taught in school that the armistice was signed “at the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month.” That numerical symmetry made November 11, 1918, easy to remember. As for 1915 and 1916, they act as outliers of wartime anonymity. Bleak periods marked by muddy trenches, shellshock, and senseless loss of life.

The only people likely to recall what happened in 1915 and 1916 are historians or military history buffs. For them, those years included the Battles of the Somme and Verdun on the Western Front and the Brusilov Offensive on the Eastern Front. These battles, like the campaigns which accompanied them, failed to bring about a decisive result. While one side or the other may have gained a tactical or even a strategic victory, it did little to alter the overall trajectory of the war. The best that can be said about such battles and campaigns is that they eroded the defender’s capabilities. Unfortunately, they eroded the aggressor’s capabilities even more. This was part of a long, hard slog of death and destruction that would not end for a couple of more years.

Wasted Years – The War Rages On

1915 and 1916 are the wasted years of World War I. Periods when the war stagnated, rather than stopped. This stalemate only served to prolong the war. There are parallels with the Ukraine-Russia War. 2023 was a year when tens of thousands of soldiers on both sides lost their lives in offensive operations that gained very little ground. The war is now at a stalemate with neither side strong enough to carry out a successful offensive.  2023 was 1915, 2024 could be 1916. The beginning of the war has become distant, the future looks limitless.

There is little doubt that in the near-term Ukraine and Russia will get weaker in a lengthening war. There will be strains felt not only on the battlefield, but throughout their respective societies. The next year will serve to further increase hardship on both combatant nations. The situation is bleak enough that it can make even those most fervently pro-Ukraine pause and wonder if the current situation might be as good as it will get for them.

Much the same could be said for the Russians, who while having an advantage in men and material, continue to display an inability to conduct successful offensive operations. The stalemate raises the same question that confronted the Great Powers during World War I. When is a less than ideal peace preferable to the gamble of future military operations which might erode one side or the other’s ability to sustain the war. The corollary is why do both sides insist on further damaging their future for minimal gains at best? Parallels with World War I are useful in understanding why the two sides keep fighting despite the war looking increasingly unwinnable. They are in the same position the Great Powers were in during World War I.

Fighting On - Going In For The Kill

A parallel can be drawn between Ukraine in 2023 and France during the First World War. The same can be done for Russia and the German Empire. Ukraine, like France, suffered an invasion. This caused both to lose a large swath of economically productive territory. It also left large numbers of their civilians in the hands of aggressors. In trying to expel the invaders, both have incurred frightening levels of casualties. No politician would dare to call for a ceasefire after such sacrifices even if it could be in the national interest. It would lock in the aggressor’s gains. This means that Ukraine, just like France, will continue to fight. The alternative looks worse.

At the same time, the longer Ukraine fights the more men and material they will lose. Unlike Russia, Ukraine does not have a large pool of conscripts or volunteers to draw from. Each one they lose is much harder to replace. Continuing to fight the war will only exacerbate this problem. Ukraine’s leadership knows this, but just like the French they must try to liberate their territory, no matter the cost. Unlike the French, Ukraine does not have powerful allied armies fighting shoulder to shoulder with them.

As for Russia, the war has badly weakened their military and geopolitical standing, but many believe that Russia has weathered the worst of the war. The economy has been reconfigured to support the military. Russia is much less reliant on allies than the Ukrainians. Plus, Russia’s allies such as Iran and North Korea are more than glad to provide them with armaments for payment in cash or natural resources. Public support for the war in Russia is still lukewarm, but the Putin regime ensures that resistance is futile. For the first time since the war started, the Kremlin looks like it has the upper hand. Russia is in a somewhat similar position to the German Empire during World War I, which also had powerful western nations allied against it.

All or Nothing = Risk Management

In the spring of 1918, the Germans were on the cusp of victory. They had won the war on the Eastern Front. Their Spring Offensive in France and Belgium made remarkable gains until it stalled out. That would be the German’s last gasp. The strains of fighting the war almost totally alone on the Western Front finally broke the German Army. Political collapse soon followed. The Germans would have been much better off to have negotiated a settlement when they were in a position of strength. By continuing to fight, they were their own worst enemy. An all or nothing strategy resulted in defeat.

Russia shows no signs of negotiating either. Putin believes the west is tiring of the war and that support for Ukraine is waning. It might also be just as true that Russians are tired of the war and the astronomical number of casualties their forces are suffering. Continuing to fight and lose thousands of men each week is a risk Putin is willing to take. Whether or not the soldiers doing the fighting will continue to risk - and mostly lose - their lives could be a deciding factor. Right now, it is 1915 in the Ukraine-Russia War, but as World War I showed the situation can change radically.