Zeitenwende: Donald Trump’s return is good news for America’s foreign policy

Donald J. Trump achieved the greatest political comeback in American political history by being elected to serve a second term as the 47th president of the United States. Despite most analysts suggesting otherwise and predicting that this electoral upset will throw America into chaos, I believe that in Mr. Trump America has a leader befit for this time.

During President Trump's first term, the world witnessed what seemed like a new foreign policy doctrine coming out of the White House: what now the president-elect summarises as ‘Peace through Strength'. In a sense though, and in spite all the talking about international norms being derailed, the rules based order has been cemented on American strength ever since the fall of the Soviet Union and before that on a compromise of mutual deterrence in a world of two parallel spheres of influence: Peace through Strength then, has always been both the objective and the bedrock of international relations. What the New-York businessman changed in the approach was the marked decrease of boots on the ground and the parallel increase of economic warfare.

What Trump was also more explicit about was the transactional nature of American diplomacy. Set aside the lip service to democracy and the liberal rule of law and one understands that America has had rock-solid transactional relations with many countries for many years: Saudi Arabia and Egypt are the current textbook examples; but America also had no problem collaborating with Ferdinand Marcos Sr. of the Philippines, Augusto Pinochet of Chile, the Shah of Persia, the South Korean dictators or even the Chinese Communists during their period of enmity toward the Soviets, post-1970. Democracy and the spread of the liberal rule of law were only the pretexts to throw under the bus regimes that displeased the interests of the superpower. Trump's addendum to this is a personality based diplomatic style: if he likes the leader, he favours the country. What might seem like the politics of flattery had been very successful and enduringly effective in the president-elect's first term in office, and essential to the third element of his foreign policy: deal-making. The author of the 'Art of the Deal' and a lifelong bargainer, Donald Trump wants to conclude deals, not indulge in never-ending negotiations. He is bold, diligent and solidly committed to the interests of the United States – as he should be.

This approach yielded commendable results. North Korea's dictator and his threats of firing an inter-continental ballistic missile to Guam was confronted and deterred without a single bullet being fired, in 2018. He imposed serious tariffs on China slowing down significantly the Asian superpower's economy; he renegotiated NAFTA and signed the USMCA trade agreement with his neighbours. With a single bomb he forced the Taliban to the negotiation table in Afghanistan. He almost suffocated to economic extinction the brutal regimes of Venezuela, Cuba and Iran, coming close to toppling the first of those in May 2020. His personal diplomacy made Europe increase its contributions to NATO. He discussed the possibility of Kosovo's recognition from Serbia in return for territory swaps and forced the hand of Greece and North Macedonia on the Prespa Agreement. He outstandingly brokered peace between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco through the Abraham Accords signed in October 2020. Even the longest stalemate in Europe, the Cypriot problem, came an inch before being closed in 2017 at Crans-Montana. ISIS was summarily defeated; Russia was held at bay while France took the lead from Germany in EU affairs thanks to president Macron's personal appeal to Mr. Trump and Mrs. Merkel's despise for the American president.

How will the Trump doctrine be applied this time round and what will it mean for Europe and the rest of the world? As mentioned before, the doctrine has three key elements: (a) transactional diplomacy, (b) emphasis on economic warfare and on the politics of personality and (c) a drive toward deal-making and breakthroughs. From this we may make some educated assumptions; firstly, the war in Ukraine will soon be over. The United States will seek to freeze the conflict creating two zones akin to how Cyprus has been divided for five decades now. The western part will be integrated into Europe giving the Union valuable high-skill workers and mineral resources, whereas the eastern part will remain under Russia's grip, especially the corridor that leads from Novorossiysk to Crimea en passant of Mariupol and which is of strategic importance for Russia. Europe will once again be at peace and enjoy cheap energy at the cost of American LNG exports, with America seeking as a return the sharp increase of Europe's contribution in NATO funding and subsequently of arms trade between the two sides of the Atlantic.

With his eldest daughter married to an American Jew and the second now married into a family of the Lebanese elite, president Trump has a renewed interest in the Middle East. Benjamin Netanyahu, an old friend of the president-elect, will seek to benefit from his second coming. It is highly likely that Trump will green-light Israel's decisive action in Gaza (as he did with Turkish action in Northern Syria in 2018) while seeking to restore order in Lebanon. It is highly likely that Hizbollah will have concluded peace with Israel before the president-elect assumes office. A possible request of America could be that Israel helps topple the Assad regime in Syria, which will come under great pressure once again. Syria and not Palestine will be the next theatre of the U.S. - Iran proxy war.

The most characteristic part of Trump's diplomacy will once again be the unleashing of ferocious trade wars. To this end, the next president of the United States will seek to unite the Anglo-sphere, continuing in this regard the legacy of the Biden administration. He will want to see Brexit succeeding with the UK being drawn ever closer to America's orbit; the possible election of the conservative Pierre Poilievre in Canada will also help mend Mr. Trump's relationship with the country to the north of his own; the Five Eyes and AUKUS will be central in his administration's China policy, with New Zealand possibly regaining the status of an active US ally. Having affirmed such a coalition and having Israel and the Middle Eastern petrol monarchies by his side, Trump will seek to court India, whose prime minister was swift to congratulate the president-elect on his win – third among the cohort of world leaders. Under these circumstances will the 47th president unleash a trade war on China and Mexico. The TPP and USMCA agreements will then be effectively over. In the geopolitical struggle against China, Mr. Trump will find allies in the conservative presidents of the Philippines and South Korea as well as in Taiwan and perhaps Vietnam, which seeks an autonomous path of emancipation from China.

On the other side of the Atlantic, a weak Germany will try to perform a fine balancing act between China and the United States, possibly triggering a trade war against Europe. Elon Musk's position in Mr. Trump's cabinet will be crucial here. French leadership will then be desperately needed; unlike Mr. Macron's honeymoon with Mr. Trump in 2017-18, the French president is today weaker than ever while the EU commission is already starting to seem irrelevant to international developments, as it slowly realises that the world does not revolve around Europe. The continent will be in need for a figure with the characteristics of General de Gaulle in order to guard its interests and broker pivotal deals with the Americans. If not, then the Europeans will have to face a bleak reality: their economies are already flailing, their demographics are poor, their armies non-existent (with the exception of France) and they have no precious metals to trade – the euro might in essence be devaluated against the dollar. The bitter truth is that Europe as a whole has been far too reliant on America, Russia and China, exactly as its crown jewel: Germany. In a new order of art-of-the-deal diplomacy, the Europeans risk finding themselves with poor leverage.

Economic warfare will eventually also hit hard America’s old foes: Venezuela, Cuba and Iran will take a hit. Of these countries, Venezuela might withstand as it gradually comes closer to the BRICS and uses its massive oil reserves as a bargaining chip. Cuba will face trouble and might turn into North Korea on the Caribbean. Iran on the other hand, might not be able to cope with new sanctions. Already in recession since 2019, having battered by the pandemic in 2020-21, having suffered one blow after the other in its proxy war with Israel during 2023-24 and with its government almost leaderless and delegitimised in the consciences of most of its people ever since Mahsa Amini's death, the Iranian islamist regime could crumble and fall before its historical facilitator, Jimmy Carter, closes his eyes.

Finally, Mr. Trump's diplomacy of flattery will see some world leaders profiting heavily, while others will queue in the White House's waiting room. President Javier Milei of Argentina will be Trump's ally par excellence, followed by El Salvador's Nayib Bukele; Italy's Giorgia Meloni and Hungary's Viktor Orban will see a boost in their influence. Messrs. Macron, Netanyahu and Erdogan must play wisely: having enjoyed good relations with Trump's first White House, the former two then went on to distance themselves from the president-elect, while the latter has distanced himself a lot from America in general. A rapprochement attempt will be for them in order. Turkey's president is in particular danger, especially in view of the fact that for Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State in the waiting, he is nothing more than a mutation of Maduro on the Mediterranean. For Mr. Macron a rapprochement with the Trump administration might be decisive in securing control of EU policy in anticipation of a new German government, possibly under Friedrich Merz. Other leaders could see themselves side-lined: Brazil's president Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva and Spain's prime minister Pedro Sanchez could be on that list alongside Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission.

Why then is president Trump fit to serve America in this political indict? The answer is that he understands contemporary realities. With China exerting evermore influence across the world through trade and transactional diplomacy, especially in Africa and Latin America, Mr. Trump will attempt to save his country's might and privilege through power projections and throwing America's economic weight on its rivals when the administration sees fit. With the BRICS trying to set up a parallel financial system, based on the gold standard or on some other tangible commodity, Donald Trump has promised to boost crypto trading and will present it as a more alluring alternative than the one China and Russia attempt to set up. The 47th president will also strengthen the position of the dollar, through his ‘Peace through Strength' approach of global politics and a continuous flow of investment in American technology, industry and talent. In a world of renewable and alternative sources of energy, whereby China already has the upper hand, Mr. Trump will use fracking as the backbone of a rejuvenated American industry while indulging in a new Great Game for the spoils of the Arctic Circle, Antartica and – why not? – even Mars. In an era where peripheral heavyweights play power games through in personam diplomacy, as Mr. Erdogan has done with Russia and Ukraine, Mr. Xi with France and Germany, Mr. Lula with Venezuela and Colombia or the European leaders with Israel and the Palestinians, Mr. Trump will show the rest of the pack how can the world's only superpower ace in such games, given the leverage it has.

To sum up, Donald Trump's return in the White House will reboot the America First foreign policy doctrine which today however is much more relevant than in 2017. Putting an end to the fictions of the 1990s, America will once again project power in subtle yet noticeable ways, without the need to subsidise boots on the ground. This will not be introspection or isolationism but careful dealmaking and balancing.

The politics of transaction that will follow might seem more precarious but offer many opportunities: Europe is given a chance to make a global player out of itself or risk being trapped in an accelerating death spiral. Individual countries and leaders will be able to rip the benefits of doing business with America, in a nascent system of flexible, piecemeal alliances that might allow for more countries to level up. Economic neoliberalism will be shattered in favour of a more mercantilist approach of world trade, which will show the real power of every country or block thereof. With the tables constantly turning, all players will have to be vigilant and innovative in order not to lose their relevance: this is the triumph, not the death of diplomacy. With battles given more often than not in stock markets and not in battlefields, policy shifts will be easier and power games less costly and devastating. Realignments will not be taboo anymore.

For far too long the West, America and Europe, have been set back by the myopic lens of neoliberalism: open markets, free movement and obedience to arbitrarily set principles and rules that have thus far backfired tremendously, having taken away from the West the hegemonic role it aimed at reserving for itself in the post-WWII era. History didn't end with the collapse of the Berlin wall; capitalism didn't deliver global democracy and the UN failed to secure enduring world peace. Instead, authoritarian superpowers are front and centre, propelled by what was once Western capital and know-how and are dominating the game that Westerners inaugurated in 1945 so as to secure their influence. What if it is for the better that the West becomes a bit less predictable against its enemies and competitors?

Mr. Trump understands the nuances of the day and has proven to be an effective player. He has what it takes to lead America in a multipolar world. It is now high time that Europe, the other side of the North-Atlantic marriage, finds a firebrand of its own and coalesce around them, before it is too late to protect its own interests and to navigate the ocean of change that lies ahead.