In Focus: Carrier alliance reshuffling in 2025
The upcoming reshuffling of alliances in 2025 is set to shakeup the supply chain. MSC is expected to secure its position as the number one carrier, while the Ocean Alliance (COSCO Shipping, CMA CGM, Evergreen, and OOCL) will have significant capacity and service loops, ensuring stability through 2032. The Gemini Alliance (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd), is attempting to carve out a position based on predictability and stability.
Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are optimising their operations, leveraging owned and controlled hubs to boost efficiency. This is expected to reduce delays and improve resilience, particularly at major transshipment ports like Tanjung Pelepas.
Asia - Europe
- Carriers have announced General Rate Increases (GRI) for November – however, there is no consistent market-wide agreement on these rate hikes, and they may not hold without a substantial increase in demand.
- Vessel delays are persisting due to service disruptions, including bundling and slow steaming. Carriers like 2M are experiencing significant delays at European ports, with arrival times extended by 7 to 14 days. This situation is exacerbating schedule reliability problems, particularly at congested transshipment hubs.
- Space remains relatively stable, but carriers are managing this by blank sailings and reduced availability.
- The backhaul reliability for Asia-Europe routes has been higher than for head-haul, reflecting an ongoing trend that carriers are prioritising repositioning equipment over delivering full vessels.
Air
Central China to Europe:
- Shanghai (SHA): The market has been very hot, with most space fully booked. Rates continue to increase due to high demand. It's recommended to book space at least one week in advance, as spot rates will depend on real-time capacity.
- Ningbo (NGB): Similar to Shanghai, the market is tight, with rates continuing to rise. Shippers are advised to check space availability and rates case by case, with bookings at least a week in advance to secure space.
North China to Europe:
- Tianjin (TSN): Space is limited, and rates are trending higher. It's advised to book 7-10 days in advance.
- Dalian/Beijing (DLC/PEK): Rates remain high. As demand is strong, booking well in advance is necessary to avoid flight splits.
- Qingdao (TAO): The market is warming up, with space to Europe becoming tighter, particularly to LHR. Airfreight rates are increasing across most destinations, with airlines continuing to release spot rates for dense or volume cargo.
South China to Europe:
- Guangzhou (CAN): The peak season is in full swing, making space extremely tight. Rates are increasing weekly, with spot rates to be checked as needed.
- Shenzhen (SZX): Space remains tight, and rates have increased this week. It is recommended to check rates and space case by case.
- Xiamen (XMN): Due to the rise in e-commerce cargo, costs have spiked suddenly. Rates for shipments to Europe are running high, with final rates dependent on actual flight bookings.
Asia - USA
Ocean
- Ocean freight rates remained stable throughout the latter half of October, despite some attempts by carriers to introduce General Rate Increases (GRI). These attempts were largely withdrawn due to flat demand post-Golden Week. Most ocean rates have been extended, with slight reductions observed on the East Coast lanes.
- Space remains available to both coasts. Blank sailings continue to be a tool used by carriers to manage capacity and keep rates steady.
- MSC has added Haiphong as a new starting point for its CHINOOK service between Asia and the West Coast of North America. This service will call at key ports such as Yantian, Shanghai, Qingdao, and Vancouver. The addition of Haiphong will particularly benefit key customers using specific shipping lanes.
- Data from Sea-Intelligence shows that back-haul trades, such as those from North America back to Asia and from Europe back to Asia, consistently exhibit higher schedule reliability than head-haul trades. In 2024, the average schedule reliability difference between back-haul and head-haul trades is around 11.9 percentage points on Asia-North America routes and 8.3 percentage points on Transatlantic routes.
Air
Central China to USA:
- Shanghai (SHA): The market remains extremely tight, with most space fully booked. Rates continue to increase as demand stays high. It is recommended to book space at least one week in advance. Spot rates will be case by case depending on availability.
- Ningbo (NGB): The market is similarly hot, with rates rising further due to high demand. Space is limited, and booking early is critical to securing space. Shippers are advised to check rates and space availability case by case.
North China to USA:
- Tianjin (TSN): Market demand is high, with rates continuing to increase. Carriers like KE/OZ offer early space with freighter flights. Booking in advance is necessary to secure capacity, especially for volume cargo.
- Dalian/Beijing (DLC/PEK): Rates remain elevated across all major carriers (CX, JL, NH, BR), with tight space availability. Bookings for dense cargo should be made at least 7-10 days in advance, with airlines splitting larger shipments to accommodate demand.
- Qingdao (TAO): The market is tight, particularly for routes to the U.S. East Coast. Rates have risen slightly due to high demand, with airlines releasing spot rates on a case-by-case basis.
South China to USA:
- Guangzhou (CAN): As the peak season continues, space is extremely limited, and rates have been marked up every week.
- Shenzhen (SZX): The market remains strong, and airfreight rates continue to increase. Shipments to the U.S. West Coast have risen this week, while East Coast shipments are higher still.
- Xiamen (XMN): E-commerce growth has caused costs to spike significantly, with recommendations to check final rates on particular flight by flight basis.
Europe - USA
Ocean
- Rates on the Transatlantic route from North Europe to the U.S. East Coast have softened following the resolution of the ILA strike. Some carriers postponed their disruption charges after the strike was called off. Although certain services, particularly to New York, are operating at full capacity, overall demand has weakened, resulting in more competitive pricing.
- Capacity remains relatively stable across the Transatlantic route. Space availability has improved slightly as congestion begins to clear at key U.S. East Coast ports. However, some delays are still expected as backlogs are processed.
- The OCEAN Alliance (COSCO, CMA CGM, Evergreen) has expanded its transatlantic services by introducing larger vessels to address increasing demand, especially on the North Europe to U.S. East Coast routes. These upgrades are expected to significantly improve service capacity, particularly for high-demand destinations.
Indian Subcontinent - Europe
Ocean
- Rates from the Indian Subcontinent (India and Bangladesh) to Europe have slightly decreased in the second half of October. Carriers are offering more competitive pricing, particularly for price-sensitive commodities. The market has entered a traditional slow season, with demand expected to rise again in January, coinciding with the grape harvest in India.
- Space availability is gradually improving, though capacity constraints remain due to ongoing congestion at key transshipment hubs such as Singapore, Colombo, and Port Klang. Carriers are still working through a backlog of bookings, which has delayed recovery.
- There has been a shortage of 20ft containers in some inland locations in India, affecting availability at major ports like Nhava Sheva. Operational challenges remain in Bangladesh, where recent disruptions have caused delays in logistics. Customers are advised to book early and maintain proactive communication with suppliers to avoid further delays.
Country updates
USA
Ocean
- Los Angeles/Long Beach: 4 vessels waiting, 12-day rail dwell, and 71% yard capacity. Piers 401 & 402 will close from October 28th to end of November, increasing congestion.
- Oakland: 4 vessels waiting, 6-day rail dwell. Delays persist due to late arrivals.
- Seattle/Tacoma: 8 vessels waiting, 10-day rail dwell. Yard capacity is manageable but congestion remains an issue.
- New York/New Jersey: 3 vessels waiting, 3-day rail dwell. Yard utilisation is at 77%, with lingering effects from the ILA strike.
- Norfolk: 6 vessels waiting, 4-day rail dwell. Yard capacity is at 50%, with limited berth space due to construction.
- Savannah: 10 vessels waiting, 3-day rail dwell. Congestion remains high due to strong import demand.
Benelux:
Belgium - Antwerp:
- PSA 913: Yard utilisation is currently at 70-75%, with reefer capacity at 50-55%.
- PSA 869: Yard utilisation remains steady at 70-75%, with reefer utilisation slightly higher at 60-65%.
- AGW (Antwerp Gateway): Yard utilisation is at 50-55%, with reefers also at 50-55%. Cargo opening times are five days prior to the vessel’s ETA.
Netherlands - Rotterdam:
- ECT: Yard utilisation stands at 65-70%.
- RWG: Yard utilisation is slightly higher at 70-75%.
- Summer season is over, with storms and adverse weather causing vessel delays at the Port of Rotterdam, which is expected to recover by the end of week 41.
- Maasvlakte II yard reached full capacity (100%), leading to the closure of gates for empty containers starting October 1st.
UK:
- Fuel Costs: The ongoing freeze on fuel duty is under pressure, with potential increases being discussed ahead of the upcoming budget. The Road Haulage Association (RHA) has warned that a rise in fuel duty could have significant financial impacts on the haulage sector, where fuel accounts for 31-36% of operating costs.
We anticipate a shortage of availability and the occurrence of delays around the bank holiday periods. Plan ahead and allow extra time for your products to be delivered.
- October 23: Hungary, Macedonia
- October 26: Austria
- October 28: Cyprus, Czech Republic, Greece, Ireland (Eire), Türkiye*
- October 29: North Cyprus, Türkiye
- October 31: Germany*, Slovenia
- November 1: Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), Croatia, France, Germany, Holy See (Vatican City), Hungary, Italy, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Monaco, Poland, Portugal, San Marino, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland*
- November 2: Belgium*, Finland, Lithuania, San Marino, Sweden, Åland (Ahvenanmaa)
- November 3: Russia
- November 4: Russia
- November 7: Belarus, Transdniestria (PMR)
- November 8: Belarus
- November 9: Spain*
- November 11: Austria*, Belgium, France, Poland, Serbia
- November 13: Montenegro
- November 15: Austria*, Belgium*, North Cyprus, Saint Helena
