Athletics pay up for Luis Severino: Contract details/analysis, fantasy fallout on $67M deal

Things I never thought I’d see: the Athletics just made Luis Severino their highest-paid player in franchise history. The 30-year-old right-hander signed a three year, $67 million contract to take his talents to Sacramento (?) or wherever else John Fisher feels like sticking his ball club.

Here, I’m going to talk about who Severino is as a pitcher, why the A’s signed him, and how the move impacts his outlook for fantasy baseball.

How Good is Luis Severino?

Severino salvaged his career last season with the Mets. He hadn’t thrown more than 105 innings since 2018 and was coming off a 6.65 ERA in an injury-riddled 2023.

Expectations were low as he signed a one year, $13 million deal. That was in the same AAV range as pitchers like Andrew Heaney, Ross Stripling, and Tyler Anderson.

Then, he pitched his way to a 3.91 ERA with 161 strikeouts in a team-high 182 innings. He also became an emotional leader for the Mets, carrying their notorious ‘OMG’ sign with him at all times and striking a pose with it and whichever hitter just had a big moment.

Back to the mound, Severino’s multitude of injuries forced him to transform himself as a pitcher. Gone are the days of 99 MPH fastballs living at the top of the zone with 20 inches of inverted vertical break along with wipeout, upper-80s sliders to make hitters look foolish.

It felt like Severino was fighting this transition and trying to will his body to perform like it once did. That overexertion could’ve led to the consistent stream of injuries.

Instead, the Mets pushed Severino to feature his sinker. He began throwing it a tad towards the end of the 2023 season and it became one of his go-to pitches this past season.

The only pitch he threw more often overall than his sinker was his four-seam fastball and it was his most used pitch against right-handed batters. Here’s how it fared against hitters from each side of the plate.

Lefties… crushed it. That was the story of Severino’s season: not good enough against lefties. His sinker was good enough to get ahead of righties and his sweeper easily wiped them out (more on that sweeper in a second).

But against lefties, his fastball didn’t have enough life to overpower them consistently and neither his changeup nor cutter developed to a point where he could rely on them. In general, his lefty, righty splits are daming.

So, Severino has done well to make himself a useful pitcher once again while having a limited ceiling because he still does not have a reliable way to beat lefties.

How Good Can Luis Severino Be?

There’s a reasonable chance Severino just had the best year he’ll have the rest of his career. He was remarkably healthy, Citi Field is an incredible place to pitch, the Mets’ pitching infrastructure is quickly becoming one of the league’s best, and he was supported by both solid defense and a great lineup.

Almost none of these things will be true with the Athletics. Any injury will kill his volume and it’s difficult not to anticipate him spending at least some time on the shelf.

He’ll also be pitching in Sacramento which had a pitcher-friendly park factor according to Baseball America, but many still believe it will play hitter-friendly in the majors.

The Athletics’ defense was also an abomination last season. They accrued -46 Outs Above average which was worst in the league while being second-worst in Fielding Run Value and FanGraphs’ Defensive rating, only ahead of the lowly White Sox.

Things could get better if Jacob Wilson plays a full season at shortstop, but this defense will almost undoubtedly be bad and that is not good for a pitcher like Severino who struck out just 21.2% of batters last season.

His one saving grace could be his sweeper. The Mets helped him develop that pitch this past season and it graded out as one of the best in baseball with a whopping 155 Stuff+. It also forced a 36.8 whiff rate and allowed next to no hard contact, even against lefties. Check this pitch out, completely disgusting.

Yet, Severino’s use of that sweeper was relatively low until the end of the season. He mentioned leaning more on his sinker early when the Mets’ rotation was beleaguered and he felt he needed to get more soft contact and pitch. Then, by September, it was his most thrown pitch against righties and better results came with it.

For Severino to improve at all on last season it will come with him leaning on that sweeper.

How Does Severino Fit on the A’s?

Well, as the highest paid player in franchise history, he is their de facto ace. He will more than likely be starting on opening day and be pushed to give them as many innings as possible. That’s great for his fantasy value if he doesn’t get injured.

This is also a great signal to the rest of their roster that, while being one of the most horrific ownership groups in sports, they will now try a bit harder to win games. It’s a miserable irony – or purposeful twisting of the knife – that Fisher has decided to finally shell out some real money with the team out of Oakland.

Still, Severino adds some legitimacy to a rotation that desperately needed it and brings valuable experience and leadership to a young team that will welcome it.

Conclusions

Severino is a good pitcher, not a great one. There should be ample fear regarding his durability and effectiveness away from the Mets. It’s hard not to think about Taijuan Walker signing his huge contract with the Phillies and promptly imploding with the Mets’ superior infrastructure and home park.

He could get a boost from volume alone though as the Athletics push him to give them as many innings as possible. That with perfect health and some more sweepers could make him at least as effective as he was last season.

Right now, he’s going towards the back-end of drafts with a 288 ADP on the NFC. That’s in the same range as guys like Merrill Kelly, Michael Wacha, Ranger Suárez, and Mitch Keller. Some solid, innings-eaters type.

The only problem is Severino’s health remains a massive question mark and I’d fade him at that price and take a shot on someone like Kumar Rocker being taken about 50 picks later who has similar durability risks and much more upside.