Europe’s emerging centers of power

Europe is in for a turbulent time. The reelection of Donald Trump as U.S. president is yet another shock, after the coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine. His policies toward NATO and tariffs will cause more instability in a continent where the political and policy establishment is already staggering.

As the new power balance reasserts itself, expect new poles of influence to emerge. We asked a group of top thinkers — historians and political scientists with specialties ranging from the medieval period to the present day — to share their predictions for what those might be.

Desmond Dinan: The return of Warsaw

Desmond Dinan is a professor of public policy at George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government. 

Poland’s emergence as an EU power center is partly due to the demise of the traditional Franco-German pillar and the increasing importance of frontline countries following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It also owes much to its change of government in 2023 and to Donald Tusk’s return as prime minister.

In a display of Poland’s newfound diplomatic initiative and authority, for example, last month — just a day after the EU’s Foreign Affairs Council meeting — Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski hosted his peers from the bloc’s five biggest members and the United Kingdom, with the purpose of building support for Ukraine among Europe’s most militarily capable countries. A week later, Tusk joined a summit of the Nordic-Baltic Eight leaders, resulting in a joint statement on security cooperation and a new strategic partnership with Sweden.

Clearly, Poland’s star, ascendant in the east, is brightening the EU’s prospects at an otherwise ominous time. Sikorski in particular is a man for all seasons. And when it comes to EU-U.S. relations, he certainly hopes to be the man for the coming winter season. A true transatlanticist, he will do anything to prevent the thermometer from dipping below freezing on relations with Washington — whether in Celsius or Fahrenheit.

Having worked in Washington 20 years ago, Sikorski can draw on his many contacts to try to temper the worst instincts of the Trump 2.0. administration. Sikorski was a Euroskeptic back then, though of a kinder, gentler form than the virulent strain that’s prevalent today. He scoffed at the Lisbon Strategy and derided the treaty establishing a constitution for Europe during the ratification process. Ridiculing the latter’s bulkiness, he was known to pull a copy of the lean U.S. Constitution out of his jacket pocket, like a rabbit out of a hat. American audiences loved it.

But as his more-recent trajectory from mild Euroskeptic to a pillar of the EU establishment suggests, Sikorski is a shapeshifter — something that could also help endear him to Trump and company, who are political opportunists par excellence. Though Sikorski vied unsuccessfully to become his party’s contender for Poland’s next presidential election, it’s undeniable that he looks the part. And that alone is enough to make a good impression on the credulous American president-to-be.

Sikorski could play his old trick, just in reverse. He could distill the Treaty on the European Union and the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union down to a slim booklet. He’d have to call it something else, of course — the “EU Constitution” perhaps? Then, he could whip this out at key moments in Washington, dazzling the new administration with his cleverness and the EU’s agility, helping end the winter chill in transatlantic relations.

Eleanor Janega: The new left

Eleanor Janega is a historian and broadcaster, specializing in propaganda, apocalypticism, urbanity, sexuality and empire in the late medieval and early modern periods. She is the co-host of the hit podcast “Gone Medieval.”

It’s been a difficult year for voters on the left.

Both in the U.K. and the U.S., formerly center-left parties set about excluding left-wing activists and alienating their traditional voter base: Labour ran a high-profile campaign to drive leftists from the party and is currently boasting of plans to harden the U.K.’s borders — it now has a net approval rating of -38. In the U.S., Democrats campaigned with and promised Cabinet positions to “never-Trump” Republicans more than they spoke about issues of wealth inequality. And in both instances, with no real left to vote for, leftist voters stayed home. 

Meanwhile, in France, we saw the possibility of a broad-left coalition winning elections and blocking far-right impulses, only to be stymied by French President Emmanuel Macron’s refusal to appoint a prime minister from the group, instead choosing the right-wing Michel Barnier who advocated for (surprise!) stricter controls on non-European immigration.  (Barnier was later brought down by France’s far-right leader Marine Le Pen).

So, with traditional parties signaling a total indifference to leftist interests and a willingness to disappoint, disaffect and alienate their voters, where can those wishing for a more fair and equitable world turn to find hope and power in 2025? 

One government to watch is that of Mexico, where President Claudia Sheinbaum currently commands an exceptional approval rating of 70 percent after her first 30 days in office. It’s worth noting that those polled pointed to her stances on women’s rights and the continuation of welfare programs as reasons for their approval, showing that the average person responds quite positively to hopeful messages and financial support.

Also of interest are leftist stalwarts like U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders, who acknowledged the trouble with offering voters little more than a continuation of the status quo in his post-election statement. Sanders questioned whether Democrats “have any ideas as to how we can take on the increasingly powerful oligarchy which has so much economic and political power.” Could this signify the beginning of a new project, highlighting a commitment to popular positions for working people? The left can hope. 

Another point of hope is the burgeoning left-wing media ecology. There are far more leftist voices and publications available now compared with 2016, offering incisive analysis and opportunities for collaboration.  

Mike Duncan: Trump’s best friends

Mike Duncan is a political history podcaster and author, best known for the award-winning “History of Rome” (2007–2012) and “Revolutions” podcasts.

Among the biggest beneficiaries of the electoral results in the U.S. will be the Silicon Valley oligarchs who own our global communications networks.

Elon Musk bought what was once Twitter, manipulated its algorithms and, as a result, can take some credit for helping elect Trump. Others, like Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen, have used their billions to fund networks of right-wing agitprop. They will now be further empowered to push a faux-libertarian agenda bent on dismantling the regulatory state and ensuring their companies can do whatever they want, whenever they want, without oversight.

Their fundamental goal is expanding personal wealth, but in pursuing that aim they will warp global discourse to reflect their own worldviews, while facing very little pushback from the political powers in Washington.

Meanwhile, one of the biggest political issues over the past decade has been global migration, and Trump has made it crystal clear that he wouldn’t just prevent new immigrants from entering the U.S. but would also deport millions of people already there. To accomplish this goal he will turn to anti-immigrant zealot Stephen Miller — the architect of Trump’s cruelest border policies during his first term. Miller will partner with new border czar Tom Homan, promising to round up and deport millions of longtime residents no matter the human or financial cost. Even if Trump’s domestic agenda is stymied on other fronts, Miller and Homan will have free rein to pursue the most brutal policies imaginable.

Finally, on the global stage, Trump’s victory will also massively empower two leaders currently engaged in military conflicts. Russian President Vladimir Putin will rejoice at his return to the White House. Expect Trump to dial back assistance to Ukraine and adopt Putin’s framing of the war: that it is the reasonable pursuit of Russia’s national interest. In a conflict that has gone back and forth, 2025 could very easily mark a decisive turning point in Putin’s favor.

The other leader empowered by Trump’s victory is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. U.S. President Joe Biden did very little to check Israel’s genocidal assault on Gaza, but with Trump in the White House, Netanyahu will now feel free to take the conflict to its logical conclusion: clearing Gaza of all Palestinians and annexing the territory.

Caterina Froio: Institutions of higher learning

Caterina Froio is an associate professor of political science at Sciences Po. Her research specializes in far-right politics, illiberalism, digital media and political participation. 

Far from being isolated ivory towers, academic institutions are evolving into powerful catalysts for social change. In 2025, universities will be central to political conflict — both shaping and being shaped by broader societal transformations.

Today, student movements are creating transnational connections to coordinate social struggles under increasingly authoritarian regimes. Their causes include climate action and reproductive, civil and human rights. Their documentation of human rights violations, particularly in regions like Gaza, has gained global attention, reaching as far as the International Criminal Court.

However, this movement faces significant backlash. Far-right campaigns are systematically targeting universities, attempting to delegitimize research that challenges uncomfortable historical and contemporary realities. Fields such as climate science, gender studies, critical race theory and technological ethics are particularly vulnerable.

The resistance and survival of scholars in these fields will be key. Climate research, for instance, is at the front line of challenging political and corporate narratives that prioritize short-term economic interests over planetary survival. Scholars and students are not merely documenting environmental degradation; they’re developing innovative solutions for sustainable development and climate adaptation.

AI research, meanwhile, has emerged as a critical domain in which universities examine the profound moral and practical challenges of technological development. Researchers are creating frameworks for responsible innovation that prioritize human rights, privacy and equitable access — often in direct opposition to powerful private actors like Elon Musk.

This presents the leadership of universities with an unprecedented moral dilemma. Administrators can no longer remain neutral in the escalating “culture wars” between competing societal values. And their decisions — whether to protect academic freedom and support vulnerable researchers, or to capitulate — will have profound implications for democratic stability.

As global power centers recalibrate and authoritarian tendencies resurge, universities offer a crucial counterweight to democratic erosion. They are spaces where we imagine alternative futures, analyze systemic injustices, and conceptualize collective resistance. The transformation is fundamental: Universities are no longer just educational institutions, they are pivotal actors in the global struggle for social justice, opposing existing power structures and offering critical perspectives that challenge dominant narratives.