The French left is finally eyeing a comeback

PARIS  —  For France’s moderate left, it looks like now or never.

The Socialist party — less extreme than the rest of the fragile left-wing alliance that was cobbled together for this summer’s election — is signaling a willingness to compromise that has been in short supply of late.

As freshly elected centrist Prime Minister François Bayrou struggled to put together a government this month, the Socialists extended an olive branch and set down their red lines for not toppling it.

Talks between the left and Bayrou never really took off, and the Socialists are once again threatening to vote against the government, but the close encounter may prove to be a turning point in French politics. The Socialists have been playing second fiddle on the left for years, their last president, Francois Hollande, having departed office in 2017, leaving them to fight for credibility since.

But as politicians from all sides jostle for support with eyes on the 2027 election to replace President Emmanuel Macron, the Socialists are trying to up their game. While they teamed up with other lawmakers on the left as well as Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally to vote out the previous government in December, that may end up being the peak of opposition unity.

“We are ready to discuss … open doors for compromises,” Socialist party leader Olivier Faure said Dec. 19 after talks with Bayrou. Unlike other anti-Macron parties, they have floated some limited cooperation to keep France from grinding to a halt and say they will refrain from toppling the next government if Bayrou plays nice.

Their position offers a stark contrast with that of their partner in the pan-left coalition, far-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon. 

His France Unbowed party has constantly upped the ante in recent years, sparking periodic controversies on Ukraine and support for Palestinians, and is now campaigning for Macron’s resignation. 

While Mélenchon, who finished third in France’s last two presidential elections, remains the leading figure of the pan-left New Popular Front, he is increasingly perceived by the moderate Socialists as toxic and an obstacle to its rise to power.

For the once-dominant Socialists, it’s an opportunity. France is heading toward a wide-open presidential election in 2027 — Macron can’t run again — and after seven years of center-right policies, French voters seem ready for a change.

To ensure the change leads in their direction, however, the moderate left understands it needs to widen its appeal and rid itself of Mélenchon.

“It’s the big strategic deadlock of the left,” said Ipsos pollster Mathieu Gallard. Mélenchon is “best placed” to beat other left-wing candidates, but he’s “not the best placed to win the presidential election, even against the far right.”

Socialist Party officials believe the political winds may be shifting in their favor.

In this summer’s European election, pro-Europe center-left candidate Raphaël Glucksmann did surprisingly well, while in July’s snap election the left-wing coalition didn’t secure a parliamentary majority but won the largest number of seats.

For the Socialists, it’s a resurrection. The party that ruled France on and off for 30 years was obliterated in the wake of Macron’s meteoric rise: In the 2017 presidential election the Socialist candidate came fifth in the first round of voting, miles behind Macron and the two extremes of Le Pen and Mélenchon.

‘Less cornered’

While Bayrou couldn’t be accused of accepting the olive branch extended by the Socialists with gusto, he did take some small steps toward meeting them halfway.

Bayrou pledged to try to avoid using a constitutional maneuver that bypasses parliament to pass the budget, something his predecessor Michel Barnier did earlier in December, triggering a vote of no-confidence that he subsequently lost.

He also suggested kicking off consultations on a possible new pensions reform, one of the key asks of the Socialist Party.

It would be shortsighted, however, to think Macron’s troops and the Socialists will be able to work hand in hand. When Bayrou at last unveiled his new government last week, Socialist leader Faure slammed it as “hard right” and beholden to the far-right National Rally.

But according to the academic and political scientist Rémi Lefebvre, that doesn’t matter: The moderate left is emerging as “less cornered” than before. “It’s an excellent sequence for the Socialist Party, they needed to emancipate,” he said. “It’s the Socialists who were the most audible, not the France Unbowed party. In contrast, the far left appeared dogmatic and marginal.”

Even if talks between Bayrou and the Socialists don’t go anywhere, these are still signals that can be picked up by Macron’s electorate. 

But the question now is what comes next.

The Socialist Party is caught in a Catch-22: They need the alliance with the far left to keep their seats in parliament, but need to disengage from France Unbowed if they want to emerge in a crowded political landscape.

In France’s two-round voting system, parties are encouraged to band together or risk being eliminated from the run-off. With local elections due in 2026 and everyone expecting another parliamentary election next summer, the bruised and fragile left-wing New Popular Front is set to survive a while longer.

The impossible path to victory

But while the moderate left needs France Unbowed to survive, they need to purge it if they want to make a comeback.

“There’s no question that ahead of the 2027 presidential election, a successful strategy on the left rests on reclaiming the center left that … moved toward Macron’s camp,” Ipsos pollster Mathieu Gallard said. And those voters hate Mélenchon.

The Socialists themselves don’t seem to have any answers. Socialist Senator Rachid Temal argues the party needs to do some soul-searching and work “on [their] projects” before reappraising their alliances.

“As long as the Socialists can’t offer a vision of the world, we’ll have to go back to the drawing board,” Temal said. “Even the far-right has a vision.”

Beyond that, the Socialist Party, like the Greens and the Communists, needs a strong personality who can rally the rest.

“It’s their great weakness, they don’t have a candidate,” said the academic Lefebvre. “That’s why Mélenchon wants an early presidential election, because he is the main candidate and his party is ready.”