Syrians face return to a shattered nation

Many of the more than 6 million Syrians who have fled their country since the start of its civil war in 2011 may now be hoping that the fall of Bashar Assad’s repressive regime will finally allow them to return.

But it’s unlikely to be that simple. The nation is utterly shattered by war, to say nothing of the devastating earthquakes of 2023. Syria’s water and healthcare infrastructure is broken and the country needs billions of dollars for aid and reconstruction.

Assad’s flight is certainly a turning point in its civil war, which began in March 2011 when the military opened fire on unarmed protesters demanding greater freedom and political reforms, but it doesn’t mean the conflict is over.

The sudden collapse of Assad’s dictatorship offers a glimmer of hope for Syrians abroad, but the plight of their crippled country means that going home won’t be an easy decision. Many have become integrated in their new homes, or may fear that fighting will flare up among the different rebel groups, presenting a particular threat to minorities. Some have no homes to go back to.

According to the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), the situation in Syria remains “one of the largest displacement crises in the world.” The agency estimated there were some 6.4 million Syrian refugees worldwide in 2023, 5.1 million of whom lived in neighboring countries — Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey.

Another 7.2 million people left their homes but remained in the country.

While Assad’s ouster might signal a new era for Syria, it will take a lot of time — and money — to rebuild the country. If the refugees eventually choose to return — or if their host countries decide to revoke their international protected status — they will find more rubble than opportunities.

Thirteen years of civil strife — and last year’s strong earthquakes — have dramatically impoverished Syria, whose gross domestic product shrank by 87 percent between 2011 and 2021.

Earlier this year, Najat Rochdi, deputy special envoy of the U.N. Secretary General for Syria,  warned that “Syria is in danger of being forgotten,” and sounded an alarm about the deteriorating humanitarian situation on the ground.

According to the U.N., 13 million people — more than half of Syria’s population — experience food insecurity. Some 96 percent of the population lives on less than $7 a day.

The conflict has wrecked the country’s crucial infrastructure, from health care to sewage and power networks. More than 40 percent of hospitals were not fully functional in 2023, according to UN-Habitat, the organization’s agency for human settlements.

Safe and stable housing remains a utopia for millions of residents — let alone for returnees. UN-Habitat estimates that at least 328,000 dwellings have been destroyed, while 13.6 million residents lack access to clean water, hygiene and sanitation.

Despite the repeated calls from the U.N., support from the international community has been insufficient: Syria faces a $3 billion shortfall in international aid this year.

Europe’s dilemma

Europe’s initial posture at the start of the conflict signaled solidarity with the opposition to Assad. The EU cut all diplomatic ties with Syria in 2012 and welcomed millions of Syrians fleeing war — a spirit epitomized by then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s slogan “We can do this!” as she pledged to let refugees in.

But Europe has since shifted markedly to the right on migration at both the national and EU levels, with far-right parties making major gains on anti-immigration platforms and right-wing forces increasingly influential in Brussels.

On Monday, Austria, Germany and Belgium all suspended decisions on asylum applications from Syrians due to the political uncertainty. A more permanent push to deny Syrians international protection, however, would likely spark legal challenges.

“Even if EU countries decided that Syria is a safe country, there would still need to be an individual assessment of the risk for each person including the possibility to appeal the decision to an independent body,” said Eva Singer, director of the asylum department at the Danish Refugee Council.

While the European Commission never endorsed recasting Syria as a safe country, it did not dismiss the option either. The new Commission under Ursula von der Leyen, who relies on a right-leaning majority in the European Parliament, has already promised to get tough on migration — and Syria could well end up in its crosshairs.