London Playbook PM: A very genteel bloodbath

Good afternoon. This is Emilio Casalicchio in the press seats of the House of Lords, with help from Esther Webber.

WEDNESDAY CHEAT SHEET

— Lords are chatting late into the night about deleting bloodline peers from their ranks.

— We have scoops on a new Labour MP WhatsApp group to tackle the agri land tax, SpAd numbers, a Post Office b*llocking and more.

— The names on the assisted dying bill committee have been revealed.

— The government indicated some juries could be stood down from lower-sentence crimes to clear the court backlog.

— Kemi Badenoch urged Keir Starmer to strip British jihadists of their citizenship.

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TOP OF THE NEWSLIST

A VERY GENTEEL BLOODBATH: Lords are preparing to discuss their favorite topic — themselves — late into the night after waking up early (by their standards) for a debate about sacking bloodline peers from the upper chamber. 

Crack of dawn stuff: The oldies began their marathon session, about government plans to expel hereditary peers, at 11 a.m. (as opposed to the usual 3 p.m.) and at the current rate of getting through the list of around 90 who want to offer their two cents, things might not wrap up until 11 p.m. or so. 

For those who are still to wake up to this snooze-fest: Yes there are actual members of the House of Lords who get the privilege of helping to make laws and claim £342 each day they attend by virtue of their ancestry. Tony Blair cut their number in 1999 but posho peers elect a replacement from the gilded pool each time one dies. 

Back to the present era: The government argues deleting the remaining hereditaries (via a short and focused bill) will remove a glaring anachronism left by the Blair reforms. But the opposition insists the move is about removing a mostly Conservative sub-group, and argues a wholly appointed chamber isn’t ideal. There are bids to tack on amendments. 

Don’t get your hopes up: Government Leader in the Lords Angela Smith stressed the bill was not aimed at individual peers, and firmly smothered any hope of attaching other reforms to the plans, stressing: “It is for the government to decide how best to implement its manifesto.” 

Shots fired: Conservative Lords Leader Nicholas True, who has seen all of this before as an aide to the Tory whips in 1999, was not mollified. He described cheers for the bill as “hurtful” and accused Labour of creating a situation where “we will be seeing some of those who do not participate very often being whipped to vote out those who do.” Some Tories are said to be frustrated about how hard their front bench is complaining, however — on the basis that giving the government its wish on this might prevent further reforms on age limits and participation expectations. 

Losing battle: The debate is being dominated by Tories and crossbenchers — only 12 of 90 odd backbench speakers are Labour peers — putting on record their gripes about the bill while basically accepting they can’t do anything to stop it, because of Labour’s whopping majority in the Commons and the convention that peers do not block manifesto promises. 

In the room where it’s happening: In the last hour or so things were a little sleepy on the red benches (surprise surprise) but Playbook PM couldn’t spot anyone actually grabbing some shut-eye. A few were fiddling with their phones and a few stifled yawns. The New York Times has been in the press gallery, because Americans love our eccentricities. 

Class war! Class war! While nobody jumped on the woolsack in protest (explained here) some hereditary peers were not going down without a fight. Tory Benjamin Mancroft AKA the third Baron Mancroft, observed that as a hereditary “I had the advantage of learning about this House, before I came here, from my father,” who had taught him that “Labour governments legislate vindictively, which means not in favor of a particular policy but against particular groups of people. This bill is a classic example.”

Toff-off: Not to be outdone, his colleague David Maclean AKA Lord Blencathra (a life peer) accused the government of “class war” akin to the fox hunting ban, motivated “not by the love of foxes but the hatred of the people who did it.” Fellow life peers Greville Howard and Eleanor Laing also weighed in against the bill. “Beware of what you wish for. You never know what might come next,” said the former. The latter added: “The current system works. And as a wise man once said, if it ain’t broke don’t fix it.”

Watch this space: The most popular ideas for amendments so far include tighter participation requirements, an age limit, and a ceiling for the number of Lords. Esther wrote a primer on this earlier, while AFP’s Peter Hutchison visited a bloodline peer who lives in an actual castle to hear his complaints.

A FLURRY OF ORIGINAL CONTENT

SCOOP — NEW TURNIP TALIBAN: Dozens of new Labour MPs in farming constituencies are part of a WhatsApp group aimed at convincing the government to U-turn on controversial inheritance tax changes. Rachel Reeves has insisted she will push ahead with plans to make agricultural land owners stump up 20 percent in inheritance tax for passed-on assets worth more than £1 million. But facing pressure from farmers in their patches, around 50 Labour MPs hope to prompt at least a tweak to the regime, set to come in next spring.

The ask: One proposal MPs are putting forward is for the £1 million threshold to be much higher — to better target it at rich people using agricultural land as an inheritance tax dodge — but for the tax rate to be the same 40 percent as the standard inheritance tax rate. The argument is the government could reap the same amount of tax without hitting genuine farmers.

Indeed: “The current plan doesn’t do what it sets out to do,” one Labour MP told Playbook PM. “The Jeremy Clarksons of this world will keep buying land to avoid inheritance tax.” (Jezza denies doing this, of course.) There are also calls for the new rules to take local factors into account — because different pieces of land can reap different profits, depending on what can be grown in the area.

These dudes might have thoughts too: Esther Webber hears there is also a new rural PLP (a first for Labour,) chaired by Hexham’s Joe Morris.

It all comes as … farmers descended on Westminster in a convoy of tractors to protest the tax changes — blaring their horns at parliament to the tunes of “Old MacDonald Had a Farm” and “Baby Shark.” It was even more unbearable than the usual din from Steve Bray and his endless rotation of anti-Brexit jingles. Bray was left fighting to be heard over the dissonance, creating a kind of noise-art meld.

Horn frenzy: Downing Street insisted the inheritance tax plans won’t change and pointed to the £5 billion in support announced at the budget, plus a new higher tier funding scheme for environmental land management. “The prime minister recognizes that food security is national security, and that’s why we remain steadfast in our support for farmers,” the PM’s official spokesperson told reporters. The government released an annual food security report today which made no mention of inheritance taxes. So NFU President Tom Bradshaw might need to do more blubbing on TV for the government to change its mind.

SCOOP — IT ALL SPADS UP: The Conservatives churned through a whopping 540 special advisers during their near decade and a half in government, Playbook PM can reveal via number crunching from the Institute for Government think tank. Despite promises from David Cameron and Nick Clegg at the start of the coalition to cut the number of SpAds to save cash, their strength doubled from 63 in June 2010 to 128 in March 2024. And Keir Starmer has now deleted the long-ignored line in the ministerial code restricting ministers to two advisers each.

But but but: While the numbers rose, adviser wages remained static. The 2024 SpAd salaries of between £40,500 and £145,000 are not far off those in 2010, amounting to a significant real-terms decline across all bands. Which could explain the huge increase in turnover in SpAds post-2015.

Just kidding! The turnover was in fact, of course, because the Tories sent themselves down the rabbit hole after the Brexit vote, triggering a sustained frenzy of ministerial resignations and sackings — not to mention switching prime minister almost every other week. Between 2015 and 2020 just 35.5 percent of SpAds remained in post, compared with almost 78 percent between 2010 and 2014.

Oh and … the numbers show SpAds are much, much more likely to be men than women. More detail from the IfG should appear here in the next half hour or so.

SCOOP — FOOD FOR THOUGHTS ABOUT FARAGE: Labour MPs will attend a lunch in parliament tomorrow in the hope of gaining some insight about how to hold off Reform at the next election. Former Keir Starmer strategists Claire Ainsley and Deborah Mattinson will present research for the U.S. PPI think tank about how the Democrats lost the fight against Donald Trump and what Labour could therefore learn in its fight against the mini-MAGAs in Britain. The findings are contained in a PPI report published overnight.

It’s about making sh*t work, stupid: “The learning from the U.S. election for Labour is to focus on really local, tangible outcomes like the cost of essentials, access to a GP, and fixing potholes,” Ainsley told Playbook PM.

SCOOP — HATE MAIL: MPs from across the political divide tore acting Post Office boss Neil Brocklehurst a new one at a meeting in parliament this morning over news dozens of local outlets could be at risk of closure. Conservative Kieran Mullan, Labour MP Flo Eshalomi (who spearheaded a letter on the issue this week) and Lib Dem Deputy Leader Daisy Cooper led the charge against Brocklehurst, who struggled to answer questions about the criteria for choosing which post offices will close, the lack of consultation and when the axs will fall.

Scenes: At the climax of the showdown, around 20 MPs ended up standing around Brocklehurst in a circle, demanding answers. But he had no seat-level data or other detail about the plans. “Post Office clearly thought a friendly drop in would cut it and want everyone to believe no decisions have been made,” one MP present told Playbook PM. “No one bought it.” Another MP described the meeting as an “ambush” which left the Post Office “at sixes and sevens.”

We had a good time, honest: The Post Office welcomed what it admitted was “a challenging meeting with MPs.” It said the closure prospects are part of a half-decade transformation plan for the business which includes franchising out more post offices. It said the cash saved would be re-invested into existing franchises.

DRIVETIME DEBRIEF

JUST REVEALED: The names on Kim Leadbeater’s assisted dying bill committee have just been revealed. The big news is that two ministers feature on the panel — which shows the government is serious about this despite not taking a collective stance on it. The committee includes 11 MPs who backed the bill at second reading (albeit some on the condition it’s amended) and nine who voted against it, with 12 Labour MPs and eight opposition MPs, all with a cross section of relevant expertise.

FOR (with the disclaimer that some are conditional): Bill author and Labour MP Kim Leadbeater …Health Minister Stephen Kinnock …Justice Minister Sarah Sackman … Labour MPs Bambos Charalambous, Marie Tidball, Simon Opher, Jake Richards, Rachel Hopkins and Lewis Atkinson … Tory MPs Kit Malthouse and Neil Shastri-Hurst … Lib Dem MPs Sarah Green and Tom Gordon … and Plaid Cymru’s Westminster Leader Liz Saville-Roberts.

AGAINST: Labour MPs Naz Shah, Juliet Campbell, Daniel Francis, Sojan Joseph, Jack Abbott and Sean Woodcock … Tory MPs Danny Kruger and Rebecca Paul …and Lib Dem MP Sarah Olney.

On that note … Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood, who voted against the bill at second reading, was asked on Radio 4 this morning about her stance. She explained: “I don’t want to take the risk that a big group of vulnerable individuals may feel that subtle pressure that comes from a cultural shift in our society, where they feel this is the only option they’ve got left. To my mind those deaths would be wrongful deaths and I don’t believe the state should be part of that picture.”

IT’S A HARD CELL: Speaking of Mahmood, she admitted her plan to create 14,000 new prison places (in part via building four new prisons) before 2031 still won’t be enough — as the annual capacity statement released today suggests. “We will run out,” she told Radio 4 this morning. “Because demand is still rising faster than any supply could possibly catch up with.” It’s the reason the government has launched its sentencing review — which is where the real rows will come, as it’s expected to hand ammo to Tories eager to paint Labour as soft on crime.

Indeed: Mahmood told the Beeb there might be some “difficult public debates” about whether some offenders should be spared jail, and said Britain must “expand the range of punishments available outside of prison” so long as the public still have confidence in those punishments. She insisted she wasn’t soft on crime — but a listen to Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick this morning gives an indication of where this debate will go.

And there’s more: Speaking to LBC, Mahmood didn’t shut down the suggestion the government could dispense with juries for cases where the maximum sentence is two years in jail. She said there would be an imminent announcement on the issue. It could make sense to do it alongside crown court data released tomorrow, would be Playbook PM’s two cents.

LOCK ‘EM UP! On a completely unrelated note … the Procedure Committee launched an investigation into MPs doing too much “canvasing and electioneering” in their bids for seats on select committees.

BORDER THIS: Kemi Badenoch focused on immigration when she went head to head against Keir Starmer at PMQs this afternoon, urging him to strip British citizenship from “terrorists and supporters of Assad” who might want to return from Syria. She also accused Starmer of taking the side of Shamima Begum and other wrong ‘uns (based on this clip) and attacked him for refusing to set a cap on legal immigration (which the Tories still haven’t done either — with a Badenoch spokesperson noting it’s being worked on.)

The prop: Badenoch referenced a letter from Starmer dated 2020, which Conservative aides then sent around to reporters, in which he set out numerous positions best described as not in the GB News wheelhouse. See it here. But Starmer noted it was the Tories (in a government Badenoch cheered on or was a part of) that left the immigration and asylum regime rather worse for wear. Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp was on the front bench getting too excited, shouting at Starmer about the letter and pointing to the air while bellowing, to show the direction of travel on asylum hotel use under Labour. Speaker Lindsay Hoyle had to tell him off. POLITICO’s Noah Keate has the full PMQs scorecard here.

On a related note: Asylum seekers could be housed in disused care homes and student accommodation, according to the Guardian.

And if all that wasn’t Badenoch: Nigel Farage was trolling the opposition leader at the end of the session — although Alex Wickham and Lucy White report for Bloomberg that Conservative and Reform branches across England are holding talks about electoral pacts ahead of the local elections next year.

WAGING WAR: Downing Street insisted public sector pay offers of 2.8 percent won’t change, because the spending review envelope for the coming year and overall for the rest of the parliament has been set and won’t change. A spokesperson for the PM said the government would work collaboratively with unions but that pay increases have to be fair to taxpayers as well as workers. It follows union outrage about the current offers.

BLOCKERS BLOCKED: The government indefinitely banned the use of puberty blockers by people under 18 years of age after the Commission on Human Medicines found there was an “unacceptable safety risk” to their use. A temporary ban was introduced last May under the Tories and will be reviewed in 2027 as the government sets up a trial into their clinical use.

THESE LADIES (AND GENTS) AREN’T FOR FOLDING: The insane amount of cash spent on government folders and red boxes keeps growing, as reporters dig further into the figures. Latest here from the Times.

MOTOR FINANCE REVS UP: The Treasury will be watching, after the Supreme Court said two motor finance lenders could appeal a controversial ruling that could put banks on the hook for £30 billion in consumer compensation over historical car financing deals. More here for our POLITICO Pro Finacial Services subscribers.

AROUND THE WORLD

SYRIA LATEST: Rebel fighters destroyed the tomb of Hafez Assad, Bashar Assad’s father and predecessor in office, in the north west town of Qardaha, as Syrians marked an end to the half a century of dictatorship. The BBC has the images.

Brought to justice: Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the main commander of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham militant group which led the rebellion, said anyone involved in the torture or killing of detainee’s during Assad’s rule would be hunted down. “We will pursue them in Syria, and we ask countries to hand over those who fled so we can achieve justice,” he said on state TV. Reuters has the details. 

UKRAINE UPDATE: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said he had spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin on the phone about ways to bring the Russia-Ukraine war to an end. “We are taking every possible diplomatic step to argue in favour of a cease-fire and peace talks,” Orbán wrote on social media as the Kremlin said the two leaders discussed energy and economic cooperation. My colleague Elena Giordano has further information. 

IN SOUTH KOREA: Former Defense Minister Kim Yong Hyun tried to take his own life while held in detention for his role in the failed imposition of martial law last week, officials said. A Seoul court issued a warrant for Kim on allegations of playing a key role in the rebellion and committing abuses of power. Sky has a writeup.

ACROSS THE POND: Inflation rose by 2.7 percent in Nov. 2024 compared to a year previously, prompting speculation the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates for the third time this year on Dec. 18. The core inflation rate, which removes food and energy prices, also remained steady at 3.3 percent last month, meaning rates could fall from 4.5 percent to 4.25 percent. The Guardian has a full analysis.

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TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND

LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.) leads on convictions in the trial over the murder of 10-year-old Sara Sharif … as does BBC News at Six.

Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): Community Planning Alliance Chair Rosie Pearson (5.05 p.m.).

Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Former Foreign Secretary David Miliband … former Lord Chief Justice of England and Wales John Thomas … BMA U.K. Council Chair Philip Banfield.

BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Children’s Commissioner for England Rachel de Souza.

News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Commission for International Justice and Accountability Executive Director William Wiley (5.30 p.m.) … Howard League for Penal Reform Chief Executive Andrea Coomber (6.45 p.m.).

Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): NASUWT teachers’ union General Secretary Patrick Roach (6.20 p.m.) … Rachel de Souza (6.30 p.m.).

Farage (GB News, 7 p.m.): Former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng … former Labour MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle.

Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge (Sky News, 7 p.m.): Prisons Minister James Timpson … unaffiliated peer Sayeeda Warsi … former Labour PPC Praful Nargund.

Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC, 8 p.m.): Labour MP Mike Tapp … former Tory MP Jo Gideon … the Observer’s Will Hutton … the Institute for Economic Affairs’ Reem Ibrahim.

Jacob Rees-Mogg’s State of the Nation (GB News, 8 p.m.): Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick … former Tory MP John Redwood.

Patrick Christys Tonight (GB News, 9 p.m.): Popular Conservatism Director Mark Littlewood.

Newsnight (BBC 2, 10.30 p.m.): Former Tory MP Paul Scully.

TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: George Mann.

REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): Talk’s Peter Cardwell and broadcaster Nina dos Santos … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): The Mirror’s Kevin Maguire and the Mail’s Claire Ellicott.

WHERE TO FIND BOOZE IN WESTMINSTER TONIGHT

LET THE GUINNESS FLOW: The Irish Embassy holds its Christmas bash from 6 p.m. Invites needed.

SLOSHED WITH THE STRAND: Strand Partners consultants hold their Christmas drinks from 6.30 p.m. on Hanover Square. Invites needed.

TORY BIBLE SESSION: The Spectator is also hosting its Christmas drinks, at its offices from 6.30 p.m. Invites needed.

TOMORROW’S WORLD

HAPPY ANNIVERSARY: It’s five years since Boris Johnson won the 2019 election and squatted like a toad across British politics. Less than three years later he was forced to resign in disgrace.

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Planning reform and defense investment.

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT DOESN’T WANT TO TALK ABOUT: NHS and court backlog stats out at 9.30 a.m.

STILL NOT HAPPY: Guardian and Observer staff walk out for the first of another two days of strike action, over the sale of the Observer to Tortoise Media.

IN THE COMMONS: The action kicks off at 9.30 a.m. with business questions, then the House business statement.

THE RENEGOTIATION CONTINUES: European Council President António Costa is in London for a chat with Keir Starmer.

ANY OTHER BUSINESS

PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: Subject to change, here are the lunch menus on the estate tomorrow: Bellamy’s: Vegetable biryani with caramelized onions and toasted almonds; jerk pork with rice and peas; teriyaki trout with sesame pak choy, grilled eggplant and pickled chilies … The Debate: Jerk pork with rice and peas; spinach ricotta and feta filo with pear and walnut salad; tandoori salmon with mushroom quinoa, pickled red onion and coriander yoghurt … Terrace Cafeteria: Lemon sole goujons with tartare sauce; jerk pork with rice and peas; soya meatballs with wholemeal pasta … River Restaurant: Quinoa burger with pesto mayonnaise, fries and coleslaw; Kin la Belle chicken with okra sauce and mini eggplant, mixed vegetable goma rice and cassava chips; soy, sesame and mirin salmon skewers with chili noodles and pak choy salad.

Apologies: If some of this sounds familiar: we ran parts of tomorrow’s menu in yesterday’s PM.

LET MY PEOPLE GO: The Institute for Economic Affairs think tank wrote to Foreign Secretary David Lammy after one of its former interns, Jésus Armas, was detained by the Venezuelan government. Details here.

SPOTTED: Actor and comedian Griff Rhys Jones at PMQs arm in arm with the Beeb’s Matt Chorley.

SPOTTED II: Apple boss Tim Cook heading into Downing Street for a chat with Keir Starmer.

ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On Dec. 11 1905 Liberal Leader Henry Campbell-Bannerman put together his government, while on Dec. 10 1916 David Lloyd George formed his amid the First World War.

WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Dan Bloom.

THANKS TO: My editor Rosa Prince, reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.

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