London Playbook PM: The final 2024 reunion

By Emilio Casalicchio

18 mins read

December 18, 2024 6:05 pm CET

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Good afternoon. This is Emilio Casalicchio.

WEDNESDAY CHEAT SHEET

— Keir Starmer will convene his Cabinet in the next hour — after a grueling last PMQs of 2024.

— Numerous Labour MPs stood to attack the PM over his refusal to compensate WASPI women.

— A Labour minister reminded Nigel Farage MAGA world knows nothing about the Chagos deal it’s griping about.

— SCOOP: The government could grant a new lease of life to a shipbuilding firm tomorrow.

— A Labour veteran became the first peer to use the word “f*ck” in the House of Lords

**A message from Goldman Sachs: Global GDP growth is expected to remain strong in 2025, despite trade uncertainty. Factors driving the growth include rebalanced labor markets, slowing inflation, and normalizing interest rates. Read the 2025 Global Macro Outlook from Goldman Sachs Research.**

TOP OF THE NEWSLIST

FAREWELL TOUR: Keir Starmer is getting the band back together for one last time before the government heads off on its Christmas break — after the PM survived his final Commons questions of 2024.

Weds afternoon is the new Tues morning: The PM is convening his Cabinet for a 5.30 p.m. meeting — postponed after his latest trip abroad this week clashed with the usual Tuesday morning slot. No doubt the atmosphere in the room will take on a winter chill as ministers consider all the voter groups the Labour administration has upset in less than six months.

The newest cohort in the peed off pile is of course … the WASPI women, who Labour MPs are astonished weren’t granted the compensation Starmer and other members of the Cabinet once suggested would come under a Labour government. One backbencher told Playbook PM it was bonkers Starmer didn’t offer them at least something, if not the full whack the ombudsman proposed.

Getting stuck in: At PMQs, Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch dug into the PM over what looks like another broken promise. “For years the prime minister and his Cabinet played politics with the WASPI women,” Badenoch said — although the Tories also argue the women should not get redress.

To be fair: The Labour manifesto didn’t promise to compensate the WASPI women. But Starmer and a number of other now-ministers did stand on a 2019 manifesto which did, and numerous people now in government have pledged support to the WASPI campaigners since — giving the impression a Labour administration would look favorably on the demands. If showing support for a campaign in opposition then going quiet in government isn’t playing politics, Playbook PM isn’t sure what is. Although … isn’t all politics playing politics?

What seems weird … is how the government is at pains to insist the comms on the pension age changes were terrible and lessons must be learned … while also insisting doing a better job would have made no difference. Even the ombudsman herself, Rebecca Hilsenrath, told Times Radio this morning it was weird for the government to acknowledge “it’s got it wrong, but then refuse to make it right for those affected.”

The line: Downing Street notes the ombudsman finding that none of the WASPI women suffered financial loss as a result of the confusion — so the campaigners don’t deserve redress. But the repeated claim the public purse can’t afford it suggests there is a deeper political choice here. “Taxpayers simply can’t afford the tens of billions of pounds in compensation when the evidence shows 90 percent of those impacted did know about it,” Starmer told the Commons.

Tens of billions? Nope, it’s not clear where that came from, seeing as the ombudsman said compensation could be up to £10 billion. The WASPI campaign itself has suggested the final bill could be up to £36 billion, so he could mean that? Sounds like the PM might need a bit of a break from all the civil war and changing time zones.

Speaking of the civil war: A number Labour backbenchers lined up at PMQs to attack Starmer on the WASPI issue. Most notable were Liam Byrne, chair of the Business Committee, who called for a Commons vote on the matter, and Diane Abbott, who asked the PM if he “really understands how let down WASPI women feel today?” Starmer insisted he did.

And just the war: Other MPs also stuck the boot in, in particular the Lib Dems who have been big on this issue for some time.

The one person who didn’t stick the knife in was … Nigel Farage, who sat looking rather jet lagged himself and didn’t bob up and down in the hope of a question. He gave SNP MP Dave Doogan a pat on the back for this blistering attack on the PM, though.

Other peed off groups: Badenoch did something of a best of in mentioning the other groups Starmer has left smarting heading into Christmas — including pensioners on winter fuel support and businesses who will be stumping up more national insurance. She said Labour was “punching the British people in the face.” The PM shot back that the Tories lost the election for being a joke (paraphrasing.) That prompted Labour backbencher Christian Wakeford to bellow with glee at the benches opposite and point his rolled-up papers at them.

Now read this: POLITICO’s Noah Keate has the regular PMQs scorecard, revealing who won and who lost.

Thank f*ck it’s almost over: Once Cabinet and its subsequent readout about ministers patting themselves on the back is done, the PM has the small task of facing a 90-minute grilling from the Liaison Committee tomorrow afternoon. Then he can skip off for his Christmas break.

ALWAYS WANTING MAUR

MAURITIUS, YOU WANT ME TO HIT YOU WITH A STICK? Foreign Minister Stephen Doughty slapped down Reform Leader Nigel Farage in the Commons this afternoon over the PR nightmare of the Chagos Islands deal the Mauritian government now wants to unpick. Farage said he’d been to his mate Donald Trump’s house in Florida this week and there was “deep disquiet” among Trump allies about the agreement.

Nige knows nothing: Doughty pointed out that even the incoming president doesn’t know the details of the agreement — so how could Farage? “He does not know the detail of what is agreed, he doesn’t know the detail that has been shared, he doesn’t know the detail the national security apparatus of the United States has considered,” Doughty shot back. POLITICO’s Andrew McDonald has a writeup.

Purse strings: Despite expectations the new Mauritian government will use MAGA skepticism of the deal to make new demands on the U.K, one British official told my colleagues Dan Bloom and Sam Blewett there was “no more money” on the table for the island nation. But the pair also hear the cash on the table could be frontloaded — so more comes in the earlier part of the 100-year lease period of the Diego Garcia military base.

The problem is: We still don’t know how much cash was offered. So it could be increased and this secretive Labour government could spin it however it wishes.

Speaking of Nige: Downing Street kept open the option of shutting down the route that would allow rich space cowboy Elon Musk to donate cash to Reform. A spokesperson for Keir Starmer refused to describe the existing rule allowing foreigners to donate cash to parties via British firms as a “loophole.” But he added Labour had promised in its manifesto to boost donation safeguards — and hinted new laws could come in the next session of parliament.

What does Kemi think? The Conservatives aren’t being clear whether a donation from Musk to Reform should be allowed and whether it would amount to foreign interference — which Musk accused Labour of when it was planning to send campaigners to knock on doors for the Democrats. But a spokesperson for Badenoch did gush: “Kemi is an enormous fan of Elon Musk and what he is doing with X.” Sounds like someone who wouldn’t mind a nice big donation. The Tories are cash-strapped enough for sure.

DRIVETIME DEBRIEF

SCOOP — KEEPING THE WOLFF FROM THE DOOR: Playbook PM hears the government will now act as guarantor for shipbuilder Harland and Wolff — five months after refusing to do so. The loss-making shipbuilder applied for a loan guarantee of up to £200 million, but it was rejected after Labour took power in summer over fears public cash could be lost. A person with knowledge of the plan said a new arrangement had been struck and could be announced as soon as tomorrow.

WATCHING WITH INTEREST: The pressure is on the Bank of England to hold interest rates at noon tomorrow, after inflation was up 2.6 percent in November — the fastest rise since March. The Tories blamed the government for making “a series of irresponsible and inflationary decisions” at the budget, while Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the figure was a “reminder that for too long the economy has not worked for working people.”

NEW LEASE OF END OF LIFE: Health Sec Wes Streeting confirmed to the Health Committee this morning the government would bring forward cash for hospices before Christmas — and said there would be a funding announcement for social care providers soonish in 2025. Clip here. PM Keir Starmer didn’t help matters when he told PMQs the hospice funding would come in 2025. His spokesperson had to clear up the confusion with hacks. Jet lag strikes again?

MORE CASH OUT THE DOOR: The government this afternoon revealed the final sum councils would get for their 2025 funding package: £69 billion. Labour MPs seem pleased with that. And don’t forget, ministers promised a full review on reforming council funding to end these short-term settlements that leave authorities unsure about their budgets for the following 12 months until the last minute. The independent Institute for Fiscal Studies has a proper explainer breaking down what the cash means for councils.

SIGN O‘ THE TIMES: The PM’s official spokesperson slammed a Russian attack on Times journalists as “desperate rhetoric” after Security Council Deputy Chair Dmitry Medvedev threatened retribution when the paper’s editorial defended the targeted killing of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov. Foreign Secretary David Lammy tweeted a supportive photo with the paper.

WEEDING OUT WRONG ‘UNS: MPs should undergo criminal record checks due to their access to young and vulnerable people, Labour MP Jo White argued. More here from the Beeb.

HELP FOR HEROES: Veterans and their families will get priority access to social housing under guidance that waives rules requiring applicants to show a connection to the local area, the government announced.

UNLUCKY, LOSERS: Three late-stage terror plots were foiled in the past 12 months, Met Assistant Chief Constable Vicki Evans told reporters this afternoon.

YOOF OF TODAY: Scottish ministers will trial automatically enrolling young people on the electoral register in a bid to improve participation. The Guardian’s politics live blog had a good rundown.

Speaking of the Guardian: The Tortoise website confirmed the deal to buy the Observer has been signed. Acting Observer editor Lucy Rock will become editor (print) of the paper while Tortoise founder and editor James Harding will be editor-in-chief.

PEOPLE GIVING OUT GLASS FRAMES SHOULD NOT THROW STONES: The latest Private Eye reveals National Audit Office bosses paid the watchdog back for expensive gifts given to long-standing Public Accounts Committee members. The NAO — which polices value for public cash — gave framed pics of its own office block worth £882 each to Meg Hillier and Richard Bacon. But after the mag questioned whether the gifts were a good use of public cash, the NAO said boss Gareth Davies had “reflected” on the matter and alongside board members had paid the bill himself. It’s on page 13.

THE LADY IS FOR TURNING: Private Eye also reveals an email Kemi Badenoch sent to a constituent in 2022 in which she said she supported proposed football governance reforms and said they would “set a new and better strategic direction for football.” But last month she told the BBC the law to create a new football regulator was “burdensome legislation” and it would be better to have no new red tape. Her spokesperson couldn’t explain what changed her mind to reporters this afternoon.

GUNNING OUT PROFANITIES: The latest Eye also notes that Labour peer Toby Harris became, on Dec. 1, the first person ever to use the word “f*ck” in the House of Lords. See it in Hansard here.

SOCIAL (MEDIA) AFFAIRS

TOTAL BANGERS: Labour former staffer Martin Angus delivered a mic drop moment on social media, revealing he’s now in charge of the famous Regency Cafe in Westminster. Could we get table service, Martin?

I’M DREAMING OF A TECH-RELATED CHRISTMAS: The tech department tried its hand at some Xmas poem-writing to make the super dull (but important) sounding National Underground Asset Register seem … a little bit less dull.

AROUND THE WORLD

IN RUSSIA: The Investigative Committee of Russia said a 29-year-old Uzbek had confessed to killing Igor Kirillov, head of the Nuclear, Biological and Chemical defense troops of the Russian Armed Forces, by planting a bomb hidden in an electric scooter which exploded Tuesday. The unnamed man, who has been detained, told authorities he acted on the instruction of Ukraine’s intelligence services, which took responsibility for Kirillov’s death. My colleague Csongor Körömi has more.

On the battlefield: Ukraine showed off its cutting-edge “Trident” laser weapon, after the U.K. agreed to share prototypes with Kyiv. Colonel Vadym Sukharevsky, who commands the Unmanned Systems Forces, said the laser could down aircraft at distances of more than 2 kilometers. The Telegraph has a writeup. Defense Secretary John Healey is in Kyiv — keep a lookout for an interview he’s done with LBC’s Andrew Marr.

EYES IN THE SKY: Outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden attempted to reassure Americans about the large number of drones and other aerial objects spotted above New Jersey and along the north eastern seaboard of the United States. “Nothing nefarious, apparently, but they’re checking it all out,” he told reporters, adding that “so far, no sense of danger.” The Guardian carried his comments. The House Intelligence Committee was given a closed door briefing on the sightings earlier this week.

Down to Earth: President-elect Donald Trump suggested making Canada the 51st U.S. state would be a “a great idea” in his latest needling of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s embattled administration. Writing on his Truth Social platform, Trump claimed: “Many Canadians want Canada to become the 51st State. They would save massively on taxes and military protection.” My colleague Elena Giordano has further information.

**A message from Goldman Sachs: Global GDP growth is tracking at 2.7% in 2024, nearly matching its 2023 pace and reinforcing optimism about post-pandemic market normalization. Looking ahead to 2025, amidst a new U.S. administration and softening inflation, the biggest risk to growth is a large across-the-board U.S. tariff, which would likely drag on global growth significantly. Uncertainty alone about U.S. tariff policy could tighten financial conditions, potentially slowing business investment and consumer spending in 2025. However, in the base case, the impact of tariffs on GDP is minor. The effects of U.S. trade policy are larger outside of America. Already, trade policy uncertainty – as measured by mentions of “tariffs” or “trade policy” in corporate earnings reports – has risen more in the Euro area than the U.S., and a rise of uncertainty could drag GDP growth by almost 1%. Read the full 2025 Global Macro Outlook from Goldman Sachs Research.**

TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND

LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.) focuses on sentencing in a death by dangerous driving case … Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) has an extended report about a grooming gang in Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria.

Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): Former Reform UK Deputy Leader Ben Habib (5.05 p.m.).

Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Senior Fellow Aaron David Miller … Ukrainian MP Andrii Osadchuk … former Labour adviser Matthew Laza.

News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Economist Linda Yueh (5.30 p.m.) … Forward Thinking Director Oliver McTernan (5.45 p.m.) … Women Against State Pension Inequality Chair Angela Madden (6.30 p.m.) … Remembering Srebrenica U.K. Ambassador Robert McNeil (6.45 p.m.).

The News Agents (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski.

Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): Defense Secretary John Healey (6 p.m.) … economist Howard Davies (6.30 p.m.) … the Economist’s Duncan Robinson and Playbook’s own Bethany Dawson (both 6.45 p.m.).

Dewbs and Co (GB News, 6 p.m.): Former Labour MP Bill Rammell.

Farage (GB News, 7 p.m.): Former Labour MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle … former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng.

Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge (Sky News, 7 p.m.): Shadow `Financial Secretary to the Treasury Gareth Davies … former Green MP Caroline Lucas … commentator Tim Montgomerie.

Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC, 8 p.m.): Linda Yueh.

Jacob Rees-Mogg’s State of the Nation (GB News, 8 p.m.): Former Tory MP John Redwood … Civitas Senior Researcher Daniel Lilley.

Patrick Christys Tonight (GB News, 9 p.m.): Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick … Popular Conservatism Director Mark Littlewood.

Newsnight (BBC 2, 10.30 p.m.): Labour MP Diane Abbott … Tim Montgomerie.

TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: Neil Henderson.

REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): Talk’s Peter Cardwell and journo Julia Langdon … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): The Mirror’s Kevin Maguire and former Tory SpAd Salma Shah.

WHERE TO FIND BOOZE IN WESTMINSTER TONIGHT

MAKING A SPLASH: It’s the Express political team Christmas drinks in their parliament office on Burma Road.

BOOZING WITH BLAIR: Tony Blair hosts Christmas drinks for the think tank he named after himself. Only Blair could throw a party which will see Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner interview … Tony Blair.

10 PINTS: It’s the No. 10 Christmas drinks for political hacks … while lobby journos’ kids are being let loose in No. 11 for festive fun.

TOMORROW’S WORLD

WATER UNDER THE BRIDGE? Regulator Ofwat will deliver a final decision over water firm investment plans, at 7 a.m.

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Ministers are expected to launch a review into fuels regulator Ofgem.

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT DOESN’T WANT TO TALK ABOUT: All the new Labour peers the Sun reckons it could announce tomorrow — despite pledging to abolish the Lords.

NADHIM NEIDLED: The hearing about legal efforts to intimidate critics of former Cabinet minister Nadhim Zahawi continues. Details here.

GOOD TV: Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin holds his annual press conference at 9 a.m. U.K. time.

IN THE COMMONS: Environment questions kicks the action off at 9.30 a.m. before solicitor general questions and the business statement.

DRAGGED OVER THE RAILS: Bosses at the transport department and HS2 face a grilling from the Public Accounts Committee at 10 a.m.

WATCHING WITH INTEREST: The final Bank of England interest rate decision of 2024 is set to land at noon.

MISSIONS, MILESTONES ETC: PM Keir Starmer appears at the Liaison Committee from 2.30 p.m.

ANY OTHER BUSINESS

PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: Subject to change, here are the lunch menus on the estate tomorrow: Bellamy’s: Jerk chicken with rice and peas; vegan sausage roll with red onion marmalade and rocket salad; sesame pork in black bean sauce with green pepper, bean shoots and noodles … The Debate: Jerk chicken with rice and peas; sea bream on lentil and chickpea dhal with cherry tomato and red onion salad and coriander yoghurt; portobello shakshuka with halloumi … Terrace Cafeteria: Five spice tempeh with rice noodles, maple glazed pak choi, and toasted cashews; lasagne; jerk chicken with rice and peas … River Restaurant: Paneer, spinach and cauliflower curry with rice and chutney; gochujang chili pulled pork bao buns with Chinese-spiced fries and Asian coleslaw; lemon salmon with mustard celeriac and new potato salad and a dill cream sauce.

GET WELL SOON: Long-suffering Labour press chief Sophie Nazemi, who no doubt had this conversation with a colleague ahead of the post-PMQs briefing for reporters this afternoon.

SPOTTED: Former Conservative MP Sarah Wollaston in the Commons VIP galleries watching PMQs.

NEW GIG I: New Statesman executive editor Tom Gatti has been appointed acting editor of the title following Jason Cowley’s departure after 16 years.

NEW GIG II: Departing BBC political producer and “SW1 legend” Paul Twinn is off to Sky News.

NEW GIG III: The government named John-Paul Marks as the new boss of HM Revenue and Customs.

THEY CERTAINLY KNOW IT’S CHRISTMAS TIME: The Tories are having a ball with the bid for a Christmas number one attacking Keir Starmer for cutting back winter fuel support. Backbencher Luke Evans mentioned it at PMQs — while ribbing Lib Dem boss Ed Davey and his own efforts to clinch a Christmas number one for good measure.

WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: International relations academic Lawrence Freedman on the Comment is Freed substack, about how the Iranian revolution of 1979 feeds through to Syrian revolution of 2024, and whether the Iranian regime should be worried for its own future.

Oh and … the Private Eye piece detailing the career of new Reform Treasurer Nick Candy (including his relationship with the taxman) is worth a read. It’s on page 8.

ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On Dec. 18 1852 George Hamilton-Gordon became PM following the downfall of Edward Smith-Stanley and his Conservative administration. On the same date in 1902 parliament passed the Education Act, standardizing elementary schooling in England and Wales.

WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Dan Bloom.

THANKS TO: My editor Rosa Prince, reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.