Here's Why PECOTA Projections Are Wrong About the Cincinnati Reds

The PECOTA projections for the 2024 Cincinnati Reds are wrong. They are running off of incomplete information.

If you are wagering on win totals based on the PECOTA projections, you'll take the under on the Reds 82.5. The reasoning behind the system’s unfavorable look at the Reds would seem to be explained by their expectation that Cincinnati will pitch poorly. This is a flaw in their projection system.

The Reds struggled mightily with starting pitching last year. It is reasonable to assume the algorithm gives far too much credence to this past performances. It is missing one key element: progress.

Related: Why Reds Are Favorites to Win National League Central Division

PECOTA draws it’s expectations of players from the depth charts on FanGraphs.com. This system has no Reds pitcher with an ERA projected to finish below 4.04. This system also projects the pitching staff to largely stay the same when it comes to strikeout ratios and walk ratios.

Last year the Reds only had four pitchers start 20 games or more with Graham Ashcraft leading the team with 26 starts. In these projections, no pitcher starts more than 28 games and only four pitchers make more than 20 starts. Nick Lodolo isn't one of those pitchers, as he is predicted to make almost as many relief appearances (13) as he makes starts (19).

Only Frankie Montas, and possibly Nick Martinez, are pitchers who have more than two years of Major League experience. It is reasonable to conclude that we haven't seen the ceiling for any of the Reds key pitchers. Projection systems don't account for that.

PECOTA projected the Reds to win around 67 games last season. We know how that went down. Do not allow PECOTA to discourage your enthusiasm for the Reds in 2024.

Make sure you bookmark Inside the Reds for the latest news, exclusive interviews, and daily coverage of the Cincinnati Reds!

You May Also Like:

Frankie Montas Signing Has Great Potential, But Questions Remain

Devin Mesoraco Gives Tyler Stephenson Advice Ahead of 2024 Season

Joey Votto Breaks Silence, Posts Hilarious Free Agency Update

Report: Blue Jays Interested in Signing Joey Votto

Reds Re-Sign Buck Farmer to Bolster Bullpen

Jonathan India Could be Odd Man Out After Candelario Signing

Early Look at Reds' Options With No. 2 Pick in 2024 MLB Draft

Former Reds Top Pick Nick Senzel Has New Home

Details Emerge About Trade Talks With White Sox for Dylan Cease

Reds Make It Official, Sign Nick Martinez

Reds Make It Official, Sign Reliever Emilio Pagan

Cincinnati Reds Have Plenty of Options Despite Missing Out on Sonny Gray

Cincinnati Reds Interested in Trade for Pricey Veteran Pitcher

Reds Were Reportedly "Close" to Signing Sonny Gray in Free Agency

Former Reds Starter Sonny Gray Expected to Sign With Cardinals

Elly De La Cruz Showed Signs of Breakthrough Late in 2023 Season

Two Jonathan India Trades That Could Make Sense For Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds Discussing Jonathan India Trade With Multiple Teams

Eugenio Suarez Back in National League Following Trade

Cincinnati Reds Non-Tender Three Players, Including Nick Senzel

Cincinnati Reds Single Game Tickets Officially on Sale for 2024 Season

Cincinnati Reds Add Top Prospect, Two Others to 40-Man Roster

-----

Be sure to keep it locked on Inside the Reds, all the time!

Follow Inside the Reds on Twitter/X: @InsideTheReds

Like Our Facebook Page

Subscribe and follow the ONLY Daily Reds Podcast

Follow on Instagram