Austin Lawrence Gidon

ALG Newsletter - Waiting for volumes to pick up. Recent updates from SA life assurers like Sanlam, Momentum Group Limited and Old Mutual have not shown the pick-up in new business volumes that we were hoping for earlier in the year. While 31 December 2024 results could still provide green shoots for this recovery, we believe that investors may have to wait for 2025 to see a healthy ramp-up. Reach out if you would like to find out more or would like to be included in our upcoming "IFRS 17 forecasts and valuations" roadshow that is about to kick off. #IFRS17 Discovery Limited

Welcome to the November edition of Edison Group’s Insight, monthly publication. It includes half-page profiles on approximately 100 of Edison’s clients, with current forecasts and a brief update on recent newsflow. All profit and earnings figures shown are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. Edison is a leading research and investor relations consultancy, connecting listed companies to the widest pool of global investors. #Research #Investment https://lnkd.in/d5QWuMSq

Primarily a steel-based beneficiation company, Argent Industrial Group is supported by export promotion and offshore investments in both new and existing businesses. By shifting its focus from South Africa (SA) to the US and the UK, it has created a strong, diversified base for long-term, sustainable growth, both domestically and globally. During the six-month review period (April to September 2024), Argent added another UK operation, as well as an investment in Xpanda Canada. Amid challenging global conditions, interim headline earnings per share improved to 231c versus 223c for the comparable period in the previous financial year. ZAR346m in net cash is equal to ZAR6.35/share, 23% of the company’s market value. Edison Group #Industrial #Steel   https://lnkd.in/dEJGx23j

dentsu posted Q324 organic net revenue growth of 0.3%, making a decline of 1.1% over the nine-month period. This is slightly below expectations at the half-year and, as the market for larger, transformational projects is still stagnant, management has trimmed full year organic revenue growth guidance to 0% (was 1%) and that for adjusted operating profit by 7%. There are positive elements to these figures, in particular continuing progress in Japan and good new business boosted by the ‘one dentsu’ initiative. The unveiling of the mid-term management plan has been delayed to February 2025, with the FY24 figures. Post the reaction to the Q3 figures, the shares now trade at a 10% discount to peers on EV/EBITDA. Edison Group #technology #management #network #advertising https://lnkd.in/dkXWfUbe

Melrose Industries PLC’ H224 trading has been in line with management’s expectations despite the volatility in the civil aerospace market, highlighting the strength of the business, in particular in the aftermarket. As 2024 draws to a close and investors look to focus increasingly on FY25, Melrose’s valuation becomes increasingly attractive. Edison Group #sustainability #growth #investment https://lnkd.in/dkV9wDCx

HELLENiQ ENERGY’s Q324 results were held back by a weak refining environment, as previously guided by the company, but showed an impressive operational performance. The company noted that the Q424 refining margin is likely to be $2/bbl to $3/bbl above the average for Q3. Q3 refining sales volumes of 4.163m tonnes were up 8% y-o-y, adjusted EBITDA of €183m was down 54% y o y and adjusted net income of €49m was down 77% y-o-y. HELLENiQ’s Q324 benchmark refining margin declined to $3.6/bbl, from $5.5/bbl in Q224, as anticipated by the company at the Q2 results, and at its lowest level since 2021. HELLENiQ announced a €0.2 per share dividend to be paid in January 2025, implying an interim yield of c 3.0%. Management was more confident on the Q424 outlook, expecting a better market and potentially some progress on its DEPA and ELPEDISON business associations that might continue the streamlining of the group. Edison Group #Oil #Mining #Energy https://lnkd.in/dbXQ9_Pq

Austin Lawrence Gidon welcomes Assura plc to the JSE. Read our latest Newsletter by our REITs analyst Thobelani Maphumulo discussing #Assura and UK REIT inwards-listings in the #JSE. https://lnkd.in/d35Y62DP Primary Health Properties PLC (PHP) Supermarket Income REIT Care REIT plc Edison Group Martyn King

ALG Newsletter - Inward REITs listings on the JSE. Tomorrow, Assura plc is listing on the JSE, making it the second UK #REIT to inward list on the bourse, following Primary Health Properties PLC (PHP) and soon to be joined by Supermarket Income REIT (both clients of our partner, Edison Group). In our Austin Lawrence Gidon Newsletter, Thobelani Maphumulo discusses Assura, the state of the SA REIT market and why the #JSE is attractive to international REITs. Reach out for introductions to #Assura and Edison REIT clients or if you would like to access our bespoke and issuer-paid research. Martyn King

Building on from its agreement to support local payment methods for Amazon Prime Video in South-East Asia, Boku has signed a separate contract with Amazon Japan to support e-commerce sales. The service has gone live and, while Edison Group expects minimal impact in FY24, they expect the contract to support their growth forecasts for FY25 and FY26. The contract represents a further strengthening of the relationship with Amazon and highlights Boku’s ability to support a wide range of transaction types over and above digital content. #digital #strategy https://lnkd.in/dtQysqMi

On 5 November, Pan African Resources PLC (PAF) announced that it is to acquire privately owned Tennant Consolidated Mining Group (TCMG) in Australia’s Northern Territory for a total consideration of US$54.2m in an all-share deal that involves it issuing an additional 125.4m shares (or 6.5% of its existing share capital). The acquisition price equates to an undemanding US$42.15 per resource ounce of gold or US$139.21 per reserve ounce. While Edison Group expects the acquisition to have little effect on PAF’s earnings in FY25 (apart from the increase in share capital), they estimate that it will increase FY26 earnings by US$24.6m (or 19.1%) and FY27 earnings by US$42.6m (or 29.6%) and, on this basis, will undoubtedly be accretive. #trading #miningindustry #africa https://lnkd.in/dPcSsPZm