GBP/USD Forecast and News
GBP/USD stays defensive below 1.2200, awaits Trump 2.0
GBP/USD struggles to gain traction and trades slightly below 1.2200 in the second half of the day on Monday. Markets' nervousness ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration drag the pair lower despite a broadly weaker US Dollar.
Latest Pound Sterling News
GBP/USD Technical Overview
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays slightly below 50 and GBP/USD struggles to stabilize above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), highlighting buyers' hesitancy.
On the upside, 1.2225 (50-period SMA) aligns as immediate resistance before 1.2270 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest downtrend) and 1.2300 (static level, round level). Looking south, first support could be spotted at 1.2160 (static level) before 1.2100 (end-point of the downtrend).
Fundamental Overview
After losing more than 0.5% on Friday, GBP/USD gains traction at the beginning of the week and trades in positive territory above 1.2200. In the absence of high-impact data releases, comments from Donald Trump at his inauguration ceremony will be watched closely by market participants.
The US Dollar remains under bearish pressure in the European session, helping GBP/USD stretch higher.
Investors remain optimistic about Trump refraining from introducing an aggressive trade policy later in the day. In a social media post over the weekend, Trump noted he had a call with Chairman Xi Jinping of China. "It is my expectation that we will solve many problems together, and starting immediately," Trump said.
It's worth mentioning that stock and bond markets in the US will be closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday on Monday. Hence, there could be a delayed market reaction to Trump's comments.
Early Tuesday, the UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the jobs report, which will feature ILO Unemployment Rate, Employment Change and wage inflation figures for November.
SPECIAL WEEKLY GBP/USD FORECAST
Interested in weekly GBP/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Pound-Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
GBP/USD: Pound Sterling not out of the woods yet ahead of Trump 2.0 Premium
The Pound Sterling recovered from 14-month lows of 1.2100 versus the US Dollar. GBP/USD braces for Trump 2.0, UK labor data and global preliminary PMI reports. Technically, the pair looks vulnerable as the daily RSI remains bearish.
GBP/USD Big Picture
GBP/USD Bullish Themes
GBP/USD BEARISH Themes
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Editors' picks
EUR/USD climbs to 1.0400 as USD weakens ahead of Trump speech
EUR/USD gathers bullish momentum and trades at a two-week high near 1.0400 on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) stays under pressure and fuels the pair's rally as markets react to news of US President Donald Trump refraining from imposing day-one tariffs.
GBP/USD stays defensive below 1.2200, awaits Trump 2.0
GBP/USD struggles to gain traction and trades slightly below 1.2200 in the second half of the day on Monday. Markets' nervousness ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration drag the pair lower despite a broadly weaker US Dollar.
Japanese Yen surrenders modest intraday gains against USD ahead of Trump's inaugural speech
The Japanese Yen strengthens in reaction to the upbeat Core Machinery Orders data. Firming expectations for an additional BoJ rate hike this week also underpin the JPY. A modest USD downtick further contributes to the USD/JPY pair's intraday decline. A positive risk tone caps the safe-haven JPY ahead of Trump's inaugural address.
Gold clings to gains above $2,700 ahead of Trump’s inauguration
Gold stays in positive territory above $2,700 on Monday as the improving risk mood makes it difficult for the US Dollar to find demand. Markets await US President Donald Trump's speech at the inauguration ceremony.
WTI remains subdued near $77.00 due to market caution ahead of Trump’s inauguration
West Texas Intermediate extends losses for the third successive session, trading near $77.20 per barrel during Monday's Asian session. Oil traders adopt a cautious stance ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration later in the day.
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Signatures
GBP/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could GBP/USD move this year? Our experts make a GBP/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the pound-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 GBP/USD forecast!
2025 GBP/USD FORECAST
In the GBP/USD Price Forecast 2025, our analyst, Dhwani Mehta, notes that the Pound Sterling (GBP) gears up for the global implications of US President-elect Donald Trump’s protectionist policies and the path of monetary policies adopted on both sides of the Atlantic as 2025 unfolds. Contrasting economic outlooks on both sides of the Atlantic will likely cause the Fed and BoE policy divergence to stand out in the year ahead. Read more details about the forecast.
GBP/USD’s topping out its gradual recovery at two-and-a-half-year highs of 1.3434, and the ensuing downtrend carved out a rising wedge formation on the monthly time frame.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2025 FOR GBP/USD
The US economy continued to show resilience, with the real GDP expanding at a solid 2.8% annualized rate in the third quarter of 2024. Meanwhile, the BoE staff downgraded their economic forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024, now predicting no growth, compared with the 0.3% expansion predicted in its November report.
The BoE stood pat on its policy rate in December but “the split vote decision and the dovish tone of the Minutes suggest that a February (2025) interest rate cut remains very much in play, if not yet a done deal,” Suren Thiru said.
The impact of Trump’s tariffs on the UK is expected to be minimal. However, mounting tensions over a global tariff war and its spillover on the Euro area growth could sag confidence, having a rub-off effect on the British economy.
Influential Institutions & People for the GBP/USD
The Pound VS Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The Bank of England (BoE)
The Bank of England is the central bank of the United Kingdom. Established in 1694 and privately owned in the beginning, the Bank was nationalised in 1946 so now is completely owned by the UK government. BOE's main reason to be is to maintain monetary and financial stability in the country. Some of its other tasks are producing secure bank notes, operating asset purchase facility and keeping the inflation low and stable. The bank is overseen by the Court, named used to reffer the board of directors, and is accountable to Parliament and the public.
BOE Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Andrew Bailey
Andrew Bailey is Governor of the Bank of England since 16 March 2020. He was announced as the new Governor of the BoE on 20 December 2019. Bailey was born in Leicester in 1959 and graduated from Queens' College with a BA in History and a PhD from the Faculty of History, University of Cambridge in 1985. Before becoming the Governor of the BOE, Andrew worked at the Bank in a number of areas, most recently as Executive Director for Banking Services and Chief Cashier, as well as Head of the Bank's Special Resolution Unit (SRU). Previous roles include Governor's Private Secretary, and Head of the International Economic Analysis Division in Monetary Analysis.
Bailey on BOE'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
BOE NEWS & ANALYSIS
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
About GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound / Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. The pair is also called 'The Cable', referring to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term originated in the mid-19th century, which makes it one of the oldest currency pairs.
Pound Sterling - US Dollar represents two economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a closely watched and widely traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. For that reason, all the macroeconomic data related to the US and the UK affects the price of this pair. One of the events which affected most the volatility of the pound vs. dollar was Brexit.
Related pairs
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity of Euro Dollar is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, the EUR/USD is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate and is normally used in carry trades. This is the reason why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when referred to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is due to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.