Atlantic Initiative

Na Fakultetu za kriminalistiku, kriminologiju i sigurnosne studije Univerziteta u Sarajevu održan je okrugli sto povodom predstojećeg izdanja knjige prof. dr. Edina Becirevic pod nazivom Putinizam na Zapadnom Balkanu. Događaj je pružio jedinstvenu priliku za dublje sagledavanje utjecaja Putinovog režima na političke i sigurnosne procese u regiji, u okviru projekta "Prevencija radikalizacije, nasilnog ekstremizma i terorizma" kojeg finansira Ambasada Kraljevine Norveške u Sarajevu. U uvodnom dijelu prisutnima se obratio dekan Fakulteta, prof. dr. Jasmin Ahic koji je istakao: „Ova knjiga dolazi u pravom trenutku i predstavlja značajan doprinos našem razumijevanju složenih geopolitičkih pitanja,“ te da se autorica „nije ustručavala suočiti s osjetljivim, važnim pitanjima o utjecaju ideologije na stabilnost regiona.“ Na događaju su se obratili i recenzenti knjige – sonja biserko, Daliborka Uljarevic, Tanja Topic i dr. Adis Maksic – čiji su komentari dodatno osvijetlili različite perspektive i kontekstualizirali značaj knjige. Sonja Biserko, dugogodišnja zagovornica ljudskih prava i stručnjakinja za Balkan, posebno je istaknula važnost ovog djela kao jednog od rijetkih radova koji eksplicitno razotkriva način na koji se Putinova ideologija projektira na Balkanu. Prema Biserko, „uvidi iz ove knjige imaju globalni značaj, s obzirom na to da se zemlje širom svijeta suočavaju s porastom autoritarizma.“ Ona je naglasila da knjiga prof. Bećirević pruža neophodne uvide koji će pomoći akademskoj zajednici, ali i donosiocima odluka, da bolje shvate mrežu interesa koja prijeti stabilnosti Balkana. Recenzenti su također pohvalili temeljitost autoričinog istraživanja, kao i njen pristup proučavanju ideologije Putinizma u regionalnom kontekstu, uz isticanje kako ovo djelo nije samo teoretska analiza, već konkretan vodič za razumijevanje političkih dinamika na Zapadnom Balkanu. U svom obraćanju autorica Edina Bećirević naglasila je širi značaj knjige za sve zainteresirane za međunarodne odnose, sigurnosne studije i očuvanje demokratskih vrijednosti. „Putinizam je ideologija koja mitologizira Rusiju i Vladimira Putina,“ rekla je Bećirević, dodajući da se ova ideologija temelji na anti-liberalnim i anti-zapadnim vrijednostima. Knjiga počinje detaljnim prikazom Putinovog života, jer njegova lična putanja igra ključnu ulogu u oblikovanju Putinizma kao ideologije. Kroz analizu ključnih historijskih perioda Rusije, filozofa koji su utjecali na Putina, kao i njegovog biografskog razvoja, Bećirević gradi složen okvir koji otkriva kako se konzervativna autokratija učvrstila kroz ubistva političkih oponenata i dominaciju nad medijima. Osim toga, knjiga detaljno razrađuje strategije ruske vanjske politike, analizirajući koncepte kao što su evroazijstvo, „ruski svijet“ i doktrine Prikamokvljeva i Gerasimova.

The Atlantic Initiative is pleased to present its latest policy paper, "The Geopolitics of Emotion: Emotional Perceptions of NATO in Bosnia and Herzegovina", authored by Majda Halilović and Ron Roberts. The study explores the complex interplay between reason and emotion, a connection now widely acknowledged in neuroscience as a fundamental aspect of human cognition. Findings reveal that many participants hold strong opinions about NATO despite a lack of well-informed, knowledge-based arguments. Emotions, rather than facts, appear to be a driving force behind their perspectives. By drawing on contemporary theories from social psychology, the paper sheds light on the underlying emotional drivers that shape public attitudes toward NATO. You can read the policy paper on the link below https://lnkd.in/d4RJe7Dn

It was privilege to organize this event. Thanks Atlantic Initiative and OSCE Mission to 🇧🇦.

With Milorad #Dodik’s another visit to 🇷🇺, it is high time to take a closer look at his relationship with 🇭🇺’s Viktor #Orbán & their joint links with Vladimir #Putin. My policy paper “#Hungary in #BiH: Orbán’s dance on the edge” with Atlantic Initiative is now available in English. https://lnkd.in/dxuYFUqX

Atlantska inicijativa predstavlja novi policy paper, autora Adnan Ćerimagić čiji fokus je uloga Mađarske u Bosni i Hercegovini, koja je od 2019. personificirana u odnosu dvojice političkih veterana, Orbana i Dodika. Analiza je podjeljena u četiri poglavlja: Prvo poglavlje, pod naslovom “Orban uz Dodikovu opoziciju“, obrađuje dešavanja prije Dodikovog izbora za člana Predsjedništva BiH 2018. kada su odnosi dvojice političara krenuli uzlaznom putanjom. Drugo poglavlje, pod naslovom “Orbanov pivot prema Dodiku“, obrađuje period od od jula 2019. do sredine 2020. kada se Orban aktivno okrenuo Dodiku. Treće poglavlje, pod naslovom “prijelomna točka“, obrađuje period s kraja 2021. do sredine 2022. i Orbanovo pozicioniranje tokom Dodikovog nasrtaja na ustavnu i institucionalnu arhitekturu BiH. Četvrto poglavlje, pod naslovom “Orban i Putin protiv Dejtona“, na primjeru Dodikovog odlikovanja Orbana u januaru 2024. i poruka koje je Orban poslao tokom preuzimanja istog, bavi se pitanjem da li su Orban i Mađarska prešle liniju poštovanja Dejtonskog mirovnog sporazuma. Analizu možete pročitati na linku ispod: https://lnkd.in/dUQE74zV

Thrilled to share that our - Vlado Azinovic and myself - study on Criminal prosecutions of foreign #terrorist fighters in Bosnia and Herzegovina has been highlighted by Deutsche Welle! This recognition is not just a personal milestone, but a testament to the vital work being carried out at the Atlantic Initiative. Our research delves into the intricate judicial responses and nuances surrounding #FTFs, offering insights and actionable recommendations aimed at enhancing policy and institutional responses in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Read the DW article here: https://lnkd.in/eDpDuCsa Access our full study here: https://lnkd.in/dSTm6zpK #PoliticalViolence #Criminology #Security #Bosnia #Judiciary #Terrorism

The ICJ’s favorable Advisory Opinion on Kosovo’s declaration of independence did not buttress Kosovo’s aspirations for wider international recognition and entrance into the UN because the ICJ’s Advisory Opinion could not shift the political priorities of influential states that do not recognize Kosovo. Considering the aftermath of the ICJ’s Advisory Opinion, the consequences of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), and the stalemate in the implementation of the 2013 Kosovo-Serbia Brussels Agreement, this analysis evaluates the current political crisis in Kosovo and BiH and advances the following arguments. Firstly, although the ICJ explicitly rejected any resemblance between Kosovo’s independence and the potential independence of the Republika Srpska (RS) entity in BiH, the RS became a bargaining chip for Serbia. Secondly, implementing the Brussels Agreement and creating the Community of Serb Municipalities (CSM) will not improve Kosovo’s full international recognition and inclusion in international organizations. Finally, given the experience of the constitutional recognition of the RS entity in the DPA, the potential establishment of CSM in Kosovo will further limit Kosovo’s institutional functioning. In effect, the CSM would be an additional limitation of Kosovo’s sovereignty because the CSM cannot improve Kosovo’s recognition by other states, but it can limit its internal governance, ultimately protracting the conflict in Kosovo.

New publication by the Atlantic Initiative. This report presents the results of research conducted by the Atlantic Initiative, in partnership with the Prizma Public Opinion Research Agency, to understand public sentiment in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) on the topics of NATO and foreign influence. One key finding is that there is considerable support for NATO accession, which was favoured by 69.1% of respondents in our survey. This was most pronounced in the Federation of BiH (FBiH), where an overwhelming 90.1% of respondents expressed support for integration; though, a majority (56.0%) of respondents in the Brčko District (BD) and one-third (32.6%) of respondents in the Republika Srpska (RS) also took this position. These figures reflect the nuance of public opinion in BiH, which is shaped by a complex mixture of domestic sociopolitical dynamics and external geopolitical factors. Thus, this research touched on that broader geopolitical context as well, exploring the role of Russia in facilitating the secessionist activities of political elites in the RS and ascertaining how the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has impacted political discourse in BiH.

The paper presents a thorough examination of the digital proliferation of far-right extremism, a phenomenon that gained global attention following the tragic Christchurch attack in March 2019. The attack underscored the role of social media in broadcasting violent extremist content, prompting international responses such as the Christchurch Call to eliminate terrorist and violent extremist content online. Despite these efforts, the paper argues that far-right content remains resilient, often migrating and re-emerging across various platforms, including mainstream social media. The paper’s methodology involves a comprehensive mapping of the far-right digital ecosystem in the South-eastern Europe, with an emphasis on seven mainstream social media platforms. The analysis identifies prominent themes and narratives used by far-right groups to recruit and radicalize individuals, noting the regional specificity of these movements which often leverage historical grievances and ethno-nationalism to mobilize support. Significant in the findings is the adaptability of far-right groups, which strategically shape discourse to serve their aims. These groups engage in historical revisionism, promote ethno- nationalism, and invoke victimization narratives to resonate with individuals’ sense of injustice or grievance. Moreover, the paper reveals a concerning trend: some of these online communities are not just isolated echo chambers but are linked to real-world violence, demonstrating the tangible impact of online radicalization.

Policy paper by Charlie Winter from ExTrac for the Atlantic Initiative This policy paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the Islamic State’s persistence and evolution in the digital arena following its territorial decline in Syria in 2019. Despite the significant reduction in controlled territory, the Islamic State has demonstrated a tenacious and innovative presence online, which has been critical in maintaining its operational activities across the globe, particularly in the Lake Chad Basin and the Sahel, as well as in its former Syrian and Iraqi strongholds. This adaptability was starkly evident in its January 2024 “Kill them wherever you find them” campaign, a surge in violence that underscored the group’s enduring capability to orchestrate high-profile attacks. The report is structured into three key sections: an update on global operations, an in-depth exploration of the Islamic State’s online activities, and an analysis of potential areas of innovation within counter-terrorism practices. Utilizing the ExTrac open-source intelligence platform, the study employs both conflict and communications analytics to provide a detailed outline of the Islamic State’s capabilities and strategic communications post-territorial collapse. The findings highlight a strategic shift characterized by a decline in kinetic operations and an increase in geographically diverse activities, especially across Africa. The data reveals an operational pivot towards a complex mix of traditional violence and modern disinformation tactics. This dynamic points to a crucial need for counter-terrorism strategies to evolve, incorporating both cutting-edge technology and refined human expertise to effectively anticipate and counter the Islamic State’s online and offline maneuvers. Given the Islamic State’s adeptness at leveraging technological advancements for communication, recruitment, and logistics, the paper argues for a continual re-evaluation of counter-terrorism frameworks to address the multifaceted challenges posed by the group’s digital resilience. As the Islamic State continues to adapt, so too must the global security community’s approaches to combating its influence and reach. Read the full policy paper on the link 🔗 https://lnkd.in/dCeqK9m4