Atlantic Initiative’s Post

New paper published by the Atlantic Initiative: The ICJ’s favorable Advisory Opinion on Kosovo’s declaration of independence did not buttress Kosovo’s aspirations for wider international recognition and entrance into the UN because the ICJ’s Advisory Opinion could not shift the political priorities of influential states that do not recognize Kosovo. Considering the aftermath of the ICJ’s Advisory Opinion, the consequences of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), and the stalemate in the implementation of the 2013 Kosovo-Serbia Brussels Agreement, this analysis evaluates the current political crisis in Kosovo and BiH and advances the following arguments.

The EP adopted a resolution proposing to consider the possibility of Armenia's application for EU membership and the need for a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. During the European Parliament session, a resolution calling for enhanced EU-Armenia relations and urging for a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia was presented for voting. The draft resolution, published by the European Parliament, was authored by the European People's Party group and was presented as a collaborative effort involving all parliamentary groups. In the resolution draft, Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) suggest exploring the option of granting Armenia candidate status for EU membership. "Should Armenia be interested in applying for candidate status and continuing on its path of sustained reforms consolidating its democracy, this could set the stage for a transformative phase in EU-Armenia relations," reads the draft joint resolution of the members of the EU's legislative body. The proposed resolution also refers to the ethnic cleansing of Artsakh in September 2023. "On September 19, 2023, after a nine-month illegal blockade of the Lachin Corridor, disregarding its commitments included in the November 2020 ceasefire agreement and International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling, Azerbaijan launched an offensive on the remaining parts of the Nagorno-Karabakh not already under its control; whereas more than 100 000 Armenians had to flee the territory, resulting in Nagorno-Karabakh being almost entirely deprived of its Armenian population, who had been living there for centuries," the draft reads. The resolution of the European Parliament also mentions the continuous threats of Azerbaijan against the territorial integrity of Armenia and highlights the existence of the occupied territories of Armenia. "The Azerbaijani army continues to occupy approximately 170 square kilometers of the sovereign territory of Armenia," says the resolution. In their proposed resolution, the MEPs urge the executive bodies of the European Union, including the Commission and the Council, to actively support Armenia in enhancing cooperation with the European Union.

The AU should not have picked up this wholly avoidable political dispute. I tend to agree with the AES’ arguments: 1. The African Union (AU) Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security declared that the withdrawal of three countries from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is unacceptable to the African Union, and they believe in one ECOWAS. 2. The Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Confederation of Sahel States (AES) disapprove and condemn this attitude, stating that it is contrary to the duty of reserve and the obligation of impartiality of an official of an intergovernmental organisation. 3. The withdrawal of Burkina, Mali, and Niger from ECOWAS is a sovereign decision. It complies with the provisions of the Revised ECOWAS Treaty of July 24, 1993, according to the Joint Statement dated January 28, 2024, and national notifications forwarded to the ECOWAS Commission. 4. The Confederation of Sahel States (AES) prioritises preserving its member states' territorial integrity and defending its populations' vital interests. 5. The Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Confederation of Sahel States (AES) request the AU Commission to indicate the decision or act of one of the AU’s political bodies on which the AU Commissioner's assertions are based.

CABINDA: The United Nations recommends negotiations for the transfer of powers. The colonial conflict between Cabinda, on the one hand, and Portugal and Angola, on the other, is a legal-political problem that falls within the jurisdiction of the United Nations. Negotiations are therefore mandatory. Negotiations have to be held, based on the recognition of the right of the people of Cabinda to self-determination and independence, with the authorized representatives of the Cabindan political parties inside and outside the country, with a view to transferring all powers to freely elected political institutions representative of the people concerned, in accordance with UNGA Resolutions 1514 (XV), 1807 (XVII) and 2144 (XXI), as well as UNSC Resolutions 180 (1963) of 31 July 1963 [S/5380] and 312 (1972) of 4 February 1972. For reasons of political security and stability in Cabinda and the rest of the region, it is essential that the gradual, orderly, and smooth transfer of all powers from the administering power (Angola) to the sovereign people of Cabinda be carried out within a transitional period of five years. Click the link below to read the “Booklet of Cabinda's Political and Diplomatic Gladiator”: https://lnkd.in/e4ayEsKM

As Britons head to the polls in July, what policy priorities should the next UK government set in the MENA region? In this piece, I argue that the UK will need to prioritize its role in multilateral efforts and narrow its strategic focus so that it can back words with actions. Amid a complex and volatile context, a strategic focus on conflict resolution and support for accountable governance offers the opportunity to do just that. https://lnkd.in/e-emWm_W

Today, former Finnish president #Niinistö will present the EU report on #preparedeness to the European Parliament. Find our #FIIA comment with Tuomas Iso-Markku below. The report presents a strong rationale for making preparedness a key theme across #EU policies. However, it‘s a long way from the Finnish security model to European implementation. More than just good arguments, it will require political ambition and momentum for the EU to beef up its role in security. #Niinistöreport Finnish Institute of International Affairs - FIIA

Minister for European Affairs Jessika Roswall represented Sweden at the EU Ministers’ meeting in Luxembourg today. Main points on the agenda: Preparation for the EU Summit on 27 and 28 June. This week, the leaders will set the EU’s direction for the coming five years through the Strategic Agenda. - The next EU Commission should prioritise key challenges such as the support for Ukraine, security and defence, enlargement, competitiveness, green and digital transition, migration and the fight against orgnanised crime. It will be a decisive year for the EU’s future, said Minister Roswall. It was a historic day with the opening of accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova. - The EU took a step towards an enlarged and united Europe, said Minister Roswall in the margins of the meeting. The ministers also discussed the directive on transparency of interest representation on behalf of third countries. Furthermore, the ministers had an Article 7 hearing concerning Hungary.

How should Africa approach the emergent trend of Military Coups that have a majority citizen support and endorsement? Who has the ultimate say on what is constitutional or not, the citizens or the constitution? These are important questions that we need to discuss. While citizens remain the ultimate sovereigns, the constitution is the formalized representation of the collective will of the citizens. But what happens when the constitution no longer serves the sovereigns? The public support of Military Coups represents a broken down system that hits the core socio-economic needs of the citizens, but it should not always justify unconstitutional changes. Is there any justifiable reason that should push us to meet the immediate needs of the citizens against the long-term constitutional design with temporal sways? Join me in this discussion as we explore the delicate balance between fulfilling the immediate needs of the sovereigns and upholding the constitution. Let's talk about how Africa can navigate this emergent trend of Military Coups while ensuring that constitutionalism is not compromised.

On Pashinyan's Statement Regarding Armenia's Withdrawal from the CSTO Many of you likely followed yesterday's intense media coverage regarding Armenia's potential withdrawal from the CSTO. The situation is peculiar for two main reasons: 1. The initial flurry of media reports about Armenia's withdrawal from the CSTO was soon followed by numerous clarifications. Initially, reports suggested that Prime Minister Pashinyan had stated Armenia would leave the CSTO. This was compounded by an additional quote attributed to him, implying that those who created the CSTO bloc are responsible for Armenia's potential withdrawal, accusing members of planning a war against Armenia with Azerbaijan. Later, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan clarified that Prime Minister Pashinyan did not announce the beginning of the withdrawal process but merely suggested it as a future possibility. Mirzoyan further explained that Pashinyan's remarks were misunderstood, indicating that Armenia would not rejoin the CSTO if it decided to leave. Currently, Pashinyan has accused President Lukashenko of supporting Azerbaijan, leading to Armenia summoning its ambassador to Belarus for consultations. 2. The withdrawal procedure from the CSTO is ambiguous. The CSTO Charter does not clearly define the withdrawal process. Article 19 of the Collective Security Treaty states that any member can withdraw by notifying the organization six months prior. However, the domestic procedure for such a withdrawal is unclear, including whether a parliamentary decision is required or if the President can decide unilaterally. There are no precedents for withdrawal from the CSTO. While it is popularly believed that Uzbekistan left the organization, it actually suspended its membership. Overall, the prospect of Armenia's actual withdrawal from the CSTO seems vague. Armenia hosts a Russian military base and lacks other security guarantees. Additionally, Armenia continues to cooperate with CSTO countries through the EAEU and CIS.

The all-but-halted integration of the Western Balkans into the European Union has led experts and citizens alike to wonder why the transformative power of the EU, at its peak in 2004 when it admitted ten countries from Central Europe and beyond, has proven ineffectual in this region. The answer is a combination of EU and region-specific factors. The EU failed to put democracy at the centre of its policy towards the Western Balkans as it was able to for the “Big Bang” countries. Twenty years later, poor democratic governance is the main obstacle to the region’s future membership. Read more in the article by Alexandra Karppi in our latest issue '20 years later. Is Europe still united?' https://lnkd.in/dimaQQMD