Locally Sourced Fall League Notes: Andrew Painter, Ethan Salas, Zyhir Hope

This past Saturday, the Arizona Fall League played host to a tripleheader, with start times staggered enough to see at least most of all three contests at the various ballparks in the eastern part of the Phoenix metro area. My notes and thoughts on the standouts from that day, as well as Monday’s solo game in Peoria, are below. You can find the end-of-year reports and grades on the 2024 Fall Leaguers on the Fall League tab of The Board.

Andrew Painter, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies

This was the 21-year-old Painter’s first competitive action since undergoing Tommy John surgery in late July of 2023. He had become among the best pitching prospects in baseball in the year prior to his surgery, and was a threat to break 2023 camp as part of the Phillies’ big league rotation less than two years after he was drafted out of high school. Instead, the timing of his injury and the Phillies’ approach to treating it (they took a chance he’d heal enough with a plasma-rich platelet injection to pitch late in 2023) led to him missing the entirety of the last two seasons.

Like most Tommy John rehabbers, the first thing to return for Painter has been his velocity. He sat 98-100 mph across his two innings of work, in line with the peak velocities he showed as a first-year pro in 2022. Painter’s fastball runs downhill because of his height and high arm slot, which narrows its ability to miss bats to the area at very top of the zone and above. He was living there consistently before he blew out, and it’s not unusual or concerning that his feel for dotting this location wasn’t as precise on Saturday. Here is his entire outing, with muted video during his warmup to accommodate a copyright claim on “Don’t Stop ‘Til You Get Enough”:

On Saturday, Painter’s secondary stuff (a slider in the 86-90 mph range and a curveball in the 83-85 mph range) wasn’t as crisp and deadly as it was before his surgery, but it’s simply too early to worry about that. Command and secondary pitch quality tend to arrive later for TJ rehabbers. At its best, Painter’s stuff plays similar to the way Justin Verlander’s does, operating at three vertical levels and with varying speeds via a fastball/slider/curveball troika. If Painter goes all six weeks of Fall League without showing nasty breaking stuff, there might be something more concrete to take away from his performance. For now, let’s see how he looks as he goes deeper into games and reclaims feel for his breaking pitches.

Ethan Salas, C, San Diego Padres

Salas had two doubles Monday and popped sub 1.9 seconds on throws to second base several times, including some 1.84-1.89 times that hosed two runners. He’s receiving well around the edge of the zone and doesn’t seem overwhelmed by the pace or level of stuff he’s catching, or by any other aspect of the Fall League so far.

Salas slashed a mediocre .206/.288/.311 at High-A this year, which naturally inspires one to ponder how much his age should inform the way we interpret his poor offensive performance in 2024. I’m inclined to be patient here. Salas will be 18 years old until next June. His stats are slightly better than Adley Rutschman’s were during his freshman year at Oregon State.

Catchers also typically aren’t great to evaluate during Fall League. They’ve played all year and tend to be gassed, and they have to learn how to work with an entirely new staff of pitchers for six weeks while sharing time with several other catchers. Getting into any kind of rhythm out here can be challenging, and I don’t necessarily think Salas has to light the league on fire with his bat to remain a top 10 overall prospect or “bounce back,” so to speak.

Zyhir Hope, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

Hope was traded to the Dodgers as part of the Michael Busch deal in January, just six months after he was selected as the Cubs’ 2023 11th-round pick. He then missed most of the first half of the 2024 season with a shoulder injury and was limited to just over 60 games. He is among the most important players for me to evaluate this fall, as the timing of his trade and injury caused him to slip through the cracks of The Board during the regular season.

Skepticism is important when it comes to digesting Cal League offensive output, but Hope’s tools are for real. He has become tremendously strong since turning pro and generates ridiculous power for a hitter his age, and in a short mechanical distance. Hope hit a 470-foot homer last week and homered again yesterday (both were off of Padres relief prospect David Morgan, whose fastball can touch 100 mph), this time to the opposite field on a pitch that he mostly fought off. His swing is relatively grooved but there is going to be so much power here that it might not matter very much. Hope can also really run, but he spent most of 2024 in left field due to poor ball skills. He has very little pro experience and should be given a chance to develop in center. This is a very exciting, high-variance prospect.

Josue Briceño, 1B/C, Detroit Tigers

Briceño, a Pick to Click entering the season, homered three times on Saturday. The wind was blowing out to right field (Thomas Saggese hit an oppo homer on a ball that left the bat at just 95 mph), which aided two of Briceño’s bombs, but it’s still a special thing to see a guy go deep three times in one game. Here they are: