BCA Research

Thank you, CFA Society Liechtenstein, for hosting such an engaging and insightful event!

Donald #Trump is back at the White House; what now? That's a question BCA Research answers in one of our recent research notes on #Europe. And the answer might surprise you; Trump and his administration will actually create opportunities for Europe. Granted, #threats will come first. Not on Day 1, it seems; that was for Canada and Mexico. But make no mistake; Europe will be next. This is consistent with our "Trump #Tariffs Threat Index" which takes into account the visibility risk (i.e., the likelihood that a country has caught Trump's eye) and the economic vulnerability (i.e., how vulnerable an economy is to US tariffs). Without surprise, Mexico and Canada rank at the top of this index. Beyond the threats (and some pain, at first), Mathieu Savary, CFA argues that Europe and the US have enough common ground to reach a mutually beneficial deal. Europe would also benefit from an end to the conflict in #Ukraine, and may be spurred to embrace #deregulation, coming up with its own version of DOGE.

Great to catch up with our EMEA team in London this past week. 🌐 #BCAResearch

Is Donald Trump the "Human Steepener”? Our Chief GeoMacro Strategist, Marko Papic, thinks so.   He recently went on the record with Gregory McKenna at Fortune to discuss Trump's early impact on US bond yields.    But how would the President-elect react to a sell-off?   ➡️ For Marko, Trump's fiscal policies won't pan out as planned: "I think President Trump knows that borrowing rates need to come down.”   You can read the full piece here: https://lnkd.in/eS3ARz4C Want to hear more from Marko? Learn about our GeoMacro: https://lnkd.in/dW8fYKk7   #BCAResearch #Trump #FiscalPolicy

At the heart of our enduring dedication to clients at BCA Research is regular, in-person interaction with our senior strategists. As we launch our 2025 event schedule in Hong Kong, we’re excited to announce that Garry Evans, Chief Global Asset Allocation Strategist, will be joining us on Monday, February 10th. Invitations have now been sent to our valued clients. For qualified investors who are new to BCA or independent research, we’d love to connect and showcase our unique offerings- Don’t miss the chance to discover what sets us apart!

Chief EM/China Strategist, Arthur Budaghyan, recently discussed with Craig Mellow from Barron’s that “Once markets figure out that Trump is bearish for the dollar, there will be a great buying opportunity in EM currencies and by the end of Q1 2025, most of the Trump Trade will be gone.”   Want to hear more from Arthur? We’re hosting an exclusive breakfast in Frankfurt where Arthur will answer these questions:   ➡️ Why and how will the US try actively devaluing the US dollar and why will the latter make a major top in H1 2025? ➡️ Will US dollar depreciation benefit global risk assets and EM? Which asset classes will benefit the most? ➡️ Is the end of US exceptionalism at hand and what it means for EM? ➡️ What is the outlook for China and commodities? ➡️ What are country opportunities in EM equities, fixed income and currencies? ➡️ What is the way out for Brazil? 📅 Date: January 22, 2025 ⏰ Time: 08:00 AM – 09:30 AM 📍 Location: Frankfurt, Germany Seats are limited—register now to secure your spot here: https://lnkd.in/e2Ecq33w #Emergingmarkets #Commodities

📈 BCA's Chart Of The Week   Our Chart Of The Week comes from Chief EM/China Strategist, Arthur Budaghyan. Arthur highlights a crucial risk to US equities—rising corporate bond yields. Historically, when corporate yields climb, stocks struggle. Arthur expects US 10-year Treasury yields to push past 5%, with overstretched equity valuations and a depressed risk premium making stocks especially vulnerable. Low credit spreads today could widen, driving yields even higher. If equities hold up in the face of rising bond yields, it would be unprecedented. Stay tuned. #USEquities #Bonds #Chartoftheweek

Check out the latest insights from Matthew Gertken ⬇️

Join us for an exclusive lunch with Chief Strategist, Dhaval Joshi, in Vienna to gain insights into the key trends shaping the global economy and markets in 2025! 💡 Key Topics: ➡️ The real risk: Japan and the yen carry trade. ➡️ US recession vs. sticky inflation: What should we fear more? ➡️ Generative AI: Its true impact on the economy and markets. ➡️ Chinese stimulus and commodity demand: What's next? ➡️ Uncovering the biggest market mis-pricings. ➡️ Predicting market turning points with our proprietary price trend complexity analysis.   🗓 Date: Tuesday, January 21, 2025 ⏰ Time: 12:00 PM - 2:00 PM 📍 Location: Vienna, Austria   Seats are limited—secure yours today here: https://lnkd.in/ew5XhXEJ #MarketInsights #InvestmentStrategy #GenerativeAI #GlobalEconomy

I sat down with Mike Burke at the The Institute for Liberal Values to discuss China's policy trends from a geopolitical perspective. I greatly appreciate the work that Jennifer Richmond does over at the Institute and encourage everyone to take a look. The video is available at Spotify, Apple, and other podcast sources as well as at the link below. https://lnkd.in/gW22asFJ