Wie gehen Sie mit Unsicherheit und Mehrdeutigkeit um, wenn Sie Szenarien in der strategischen Planung einsetzen?

To cope with uncertainty and ambiguity in strategic planning using scenarios, apply analytic tools to identify strategic options based on the uncertainty level. For a few alternative futures, use option valuation models and game theory. For a wide range of futures, develop multiple scenarios using technology forecasting and scenario planning. Select a strategic posture: shaping, adapting, or reserving the right to play. Build a portfolio of strategic moves: big bets, options, and no-regrets moves.

I believe scenarios are build to help you make a decision, so I can't agree with the statement "scenarios are not meant to tell you what to do". We do scenarios to find a best possible path/way to achieve our goal. Of course it might have a different form depending on the scenario you decide to follow.

Embrace flexibility and stakeholder involvement to cope with uncertainty in strategic planning scenarios. Prioritize resilience and adaptability for effective response to unexpected changes.

Coping with uncertainty and ambiguity is inherent to the process of scenario planning in strategy planning. To manage uncertainty and ambiguity for example trying Using Iterative Approach: Scenario planning is an iterative process that evolves over time. Start with initial scenarios based on available information, but remain flexible to adjust and refine scenarios as new data becomes available or circumstances change. Engaging Diverse Perspectives is another way to manage uncertainty i.e Involve a diverse range of stakeholders in the scenario planning process to bring different perspectives and insights. This helps in challenging assumptions, identifying blind spots, and fostering a more comprehensive understanding of potential futures.

At CIMx, we handle strategic planning a little differently. You never know what's going to happen next, but you can plan to be nimble and pivot. The best way we know to do that is to break our cycle into smaller pieces. We do scenario management on a 90-day rotation and those 90 days don't usually coincide with a traditional quarter-end. We find that we're more focused on getting the work done rather than reporting on a standard period and it lets us be a little freer to talk about scenarios and creatively respond. When your strategy is not tied directly to the calendar, you're focused on the work rather than the period.

This is my best way to dealing with uncertainty and ambiguity... i call it "FIOSS". Fear: whats the worst that could happen? Inaction: what negatives might happen if I don't do anything? Opportunity: what positives might happen if I do something? Support: what resources, talents, people had supported me to overcome it? Steps: what are the 3 smallest actions I could take now? This 5 question is lined up in a way that can help to remove most fear (to a point that it's illogical to feel uncertain). Don't need to trust me, try it for yourself. Good luck!

Choosing an appropriate method and scope involves evaluating project requirements, constraints, and resources to select the most suitable approach that aligns with project objectives and stakeholder expectations.

APPLY THE STRATEGIC 3 HORIZONS MODEL for innovation As innovation facilitator of 100+ projects, I recommend you to use the 3 HORIZONS of McKinsey to guide you. In Horizon 1, focus on optimizing your current products and processes for incremental improvements, cost reduction, and efficiency. In Horizon 2, allocate resources towards developing new products that build on your existing strengths but address emerging customer needs. In Horizon 3, explore disruptive and breakthrough innovations that may have non-traditional markets and business models. Balance your investments across these three horizons to ensure a steady flow of incremental improvements, growth opportunities, and breakthrough innovations.

You are not a fortune teller. Neither is anyone you work with. Accordingly, avoid any method that feels like you're reading Tarot cards. Scenarios should be vetted against specific criteria. And should only guide the ultimate conversation if they are high in potential probability and impact.

Selecting the right method and scope for scenario planning is essential. Consider factors such as the complexity of your organization, the level of uncertainty in your industry, and the time and resources available. Choose a method that aligns with your strategic objectives and allows for flexibility and creativity in scenario development.

Involving diverse and relevant stakeholders ensures comprehensive input, buy-in, and alignment with project goals, leading to better decision-making and successful project outcomes.

Ensure that a diverse range of stakeholders, including internal and external experts, are involved in the scenario planning process. Their diverse perspectives and expertise will enrich the scenarios and increase buy-in from key decision-makers. Engage stakeholders from different departments, levels, and functions to capture a comprehensive understanding of potential future scenarios.

While designing scenarios, involving diverse stakeholders helps you to maintain realism in scenarios which further helps you to understand and plan better /customized solutions.

Scenarios are the best tools to envision and prepare for different potential futures. They involve creating narratives for various circumstances, helping organizations analyze, adapt, and make informed decisions. By discussing these scenarios with stakeholders, exploring their implications, and using them to inform strategies, organizations can become more resilient and agile in the face of uncertainty. Scenario-based thinking enhances preparedness for an array of possibilities, enabling better responses to changing conditions and the dynamic nature of business and external environments.

Effective communication is essential for leveraging scenarios in strategic planning. Clearly communicate the purpose, methodology, and findings of the scenario planning process to all stakeholders. Use scenarios to inform strategic decisions, identify early warning signals, and develop robust contingency plans. Ensure that scenarios are integrated into the strategic planning process and regularly revisited to inform decision-making.

The business environment is constantly evolving, and scenarios must be reviewed and updated regularly to remain relevant. Monitor key external trends and developments that may impact your organization's future. Periodically reassess the assumptions and drivers underpinning your scenarios and adjust them accordingly. Incorporate new data, insights, and feedback from stakeholders to ensure that your scenarios remain useful and actionable.

1) Consider using the 2x2 scenario planning matrix. Identify 2 key driving forces and list 3-5 possible outcomes in each section. Depending on the driving forces used, it is possible that 1 of the 4 scenarios will be similar to the status quo. 2) Use Agile Project Management iterative strategy. Since the actual outcome is going to be a mixture of scenarios, it is useful to use the iterative process to make tweaks to the scenarios and driving forces over a time period. 3) Develop our own resilience by trying novel, and sometimes uncomfortable, experiences. Taking into account the risk management and resource availability, examples can be going on a solo trip to a new place, and taking up a course with zero background knowledge.

To cope with uncertainty and ambiguity in strategic planning using scenarios: 1. Develop Multiple Scenarios: Create various plausible future scenarios. 2. Identify Key Drivers and Assumptions: Determine crucial factors and underlying assumptions. 3. Use Sensitivity Analysis: Test how changes in assumptions impact outcomes. 4. Regular Review and Adaptation: Continuously update scenarios and strategies with new information. 5. Engage in Strategic Conversations: Discuss scenarios with stakeholders for diverse insights. 6. Focus on Robust Strategies: Develop adaptable strategies that work across different scenarios. 7. Monitor Indicators: Use early warning indicators to detect shifts and adjust strategies accordingly.

Strategic planning is the most used mechanism, but companies might want to think about strategic agility and how tho anticipate and adapt to changes in the market. While scenarios help in strategic planning, for some fast-changing industries these might not be very useful. Companies embracing strategic agility combine both good strategic sensitivity (which might be supported by scenarios), but also leadership unity and resource fluidity.

Embrace uncertainty as an opportunity for innovation and adaptation. Scenario planning is not about predicting the future with certainty but rather preparing for a range of possible futures. Stay agile and flexible in your approach, and continuously iterate and refine your scenarios as new information emerges.