Climate Analytics

Designing bankable NDCs 3.0: At the #COP29 NDC Partnership Pavilion, our Africa office head Benjamin Djabare shared lessons from the last round of NDCs: - engage finance and development ministries early - align with GCF portfolios - coordinate technical support - mainstream targets into policies and budgets - break targets into policies and actions - include sector targets, costs, activities, and lead agencies - make it public for funders - bottom-up modelling of sector emissions can ensure actionable targets - consider different sources of funding, (i.e. private capital, grants, and loans) - track progress with a measurement, reporting and verification system - broad stakeholder input: ongoing private sector engagement, deep coordination with sectoral ministries, and alignment with local governments Barriers to NDCs: - many countries lack investment ratings, driving up perceived risk. - high capital costs block viable projects in developing countries - smaller economies like SIDS struggle to attract clean energy investments. 🔗 For all the details, rewatch the event: https://lnkd.in/ei_JA43z

Small islands and the least developed countries have been sidelined. There is no mention of minimum allocations for them — a key ask — and no explicit acknowledgement of their special circumstances. Read Bill Hare's analysis of latest COP29 text: https://lnkd.in/ghYWcD5V

🇪🇺 New NDC factsheet shows 1.5°C-aligned 2030 and 2035 greenhouse gas emissions milestones for the EU. Our analysis, using 1.5°C compatible global and regional emission pathways from the IPCC’s AR6 downscaled to the EU27, finds the EU 2030 target not yet in line with 1.5°C. Using 1990 as the reference year, emissions reductions are shown both including and excluding land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). Given the recent reassertion of the EU’s commitment to deliver 1.5°C aligned NDCs, next year we hope to see ambitious 2035 targets AND a stronger 2030 target to bring it in line with 1.5°C. 🔗 Download the factsheet 👇 https://lnkd.in/gFufBpu2

“I wish our political leaders knew the urgency of acting.” Bill Hare, founder of our partner Climate Analytics in conversation with our programme manager Francesca Rappocciolo. As #COP29 draws to a close, the urgency to act couldn't be clearer. Discover more about Climate Analytics here ➡ https://lnkd.in/eqHD4pEg #ClimateAction #COP #IKEAFoundation #ClimateAnalytics #ClimateSolutions #ClimateCrisis

It's #transport day at #COP29 so it's a great time to talk benchmarks for this sector. We've produced updated #1o5C compatible benchmarks for the transport sector - for the world as a whole, and with a specific focus on seven countries: the #US, #EU, #China, #India, #Brazil, #SouthAfrica and #Indonesia. As transport demand & associated emissions continue to grow, the most critical part of this sector in the global energy transition is road transport emissions. The global passenger fleet should be emissions free by 2050. * to align w 1.5ºC, the world shld reach 100% EV sales by 2035 * Globally, #EVs shld achieve 75-95% of the light-duty vehicle market by 2030; 97-100% by 2035 * Developed countries & China shld take the lead, phasing out the sale of ICE vehicles as early as 2030. While the pace of action could be slower in developing countries they should still aim to achieve 100% EV sales share by latest 2040. At current uptake rates, EV sales could be well on track to reach 90% by 2030. This requires continued and additional policy support to keep up this growth. Read our blog (and report): https://lnkd.in/gS7BXBAR

BLOG: The top 10 fossil fuel exporting countries represent around 60% of the total exported #fossilfuel emissions (2022 data). Here at COP29, the influence of the fossil fuel industry is ever-present. In this blog, we take a look at the top ten countries responsible for about 60% of global emissions from exported fossil fuels. At COP28, govts agreed to “transition away” from fossil fuels in the energy sector, reconfirming this decision at the UNGA, Sept 2024. But the fossil fuel production industry isn't a party to intl agreements, nor are the exported emissions counted in the country they come from. In the #US, #Canada, #Norway, #Australia and the #UK, domestic emissions are dropping, in contrast to their exported emissions. Many of these countries claim to be taking strong climate action, but their exported emissions are larger than their domestic emissions: #Norway and #Australia are standouts, but this is also important for #Azerbaijan, #SaudiArabia, #Canada and the #UAE. Rather than the well-established “polluter pays principle”, the polluters profit from pollution. And while the buyers of these fuels need to reduce demand, the fossil fuel export business model is not in line with the goal of “transitioning away” from fossil fuels. Read the blog: https://lnkd.in/gW7MWmCz

⌛️TODAY! Follow the side-event at the #COP29 Cryosphere pavilion: ➡️The Need for Preventive CDR to Limit Long-term Cryosphere Risks ⏰At 18:00 Bakú time // 15:00 CET 🔗https://lnkd.in/dZDmae-K Learn about CDR deployment and the cryosphere in this joint event with PROVIDE: In addition to drastic emissions reductions, some level of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is required to achieve net zero greenhouse emissions and potentially long-term temperature decline. Emerging research highlights the need for such a warming reversal to limit cryosphere risks for centuries to come. However, CDR strategies come with varying degrees of side-effects affecting multiple sectors. This panel discussion will highlight the various CDR methods and explore their potential and drawbacks. It will also establish the need for a preventive CDR capacity. Imperial College London Barcelona Supercomputing Center Climate Analytics International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

📢Event Recap from our COP29 Event at the Caricom Pavillion!! 𝗖𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗯𝗯𝗲𝗮𝗻 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴: 𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗰𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗦𝗜𝗗𝗦-𝗟𝗲𝗱 𝗦𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗘𝗻𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗟𝗼𝘀𝘀 & 𝗗𝗮𝗺𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗲 At our COP29 event, speakers spotlighted urgent conversations on addressing loss and damage (L&D) challenges for SIDS. 💡𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝗽𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘀👇 𝙄𝙣𝙨𝙪𝙧𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚 𝙖𝙨 𝙍𝙞𝙨𝙠 𝙈𝙖𝙣𝙖𝙜𝙚𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 CCRIF’s payouts, like Grenada’s $40M, that was delivered in a record 14 days to the Grenadian government, highlights the importance of embedding risk instruments in local strategies as a method of recovering from loss and damage impacts, DESPITE, fiscal restraints. 𝙁𝙞𝙣𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙁𝙪𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙚 With an estimated $1.3T in needs, SIDS at COP29 are calling for a $39B annual baseline to drive resilience, education, and climate readiness. Please note, these figures refer to the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG). 𝙇𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙜𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙋𝙖𝙧𝙩𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙨𝙝𝙞𝙥𝙨 Collaboration with funds like GCF (Green Climate Fund) is essential to amplify impact and build regional climate support. 𝙇𝙤𝙣𝙜-𝙏𝙚𝙧𝙢 𝙎𝙤𝙡𝙪𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨 The many impacts of the climate crisis includes rising seas , hurricanes,droughts etc and these climate challenges demand sustained action and acknowledgment of island vulnerabilities in order to build LONG-TERM SOLUTIONS rather than short term. 𝙄𝙣𝙣𝙤𝙫𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨 𝙞𝙣 𝘿𝙚𝙗𝙩 & 𝙍𝙚𝙨𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙚 Innovations like natural disaster debt clauses and debt for climate swaps are being used and showcase Caribbean leadership in planning for climate events. 🙏🙏🙏🙏 A heartfelt thanks to our speakers and attendees for pushing the needle on collective action and for allowing us to create a space of knowledge building on Loss and Damage & Debt. #COP29 #Lossanddamage #DebtSustainability #climatecrisis #sids #climatechange #eventrecap #lossanddamagefund

NEW: paper in Nature from a leading group of scientists, including Bill Hare cautions that relying on forests and oceans to offset current and future fossil fuel emissions will not put a stop to warming.