Climate Action Tracker

📣 As reported by The Japan Times and other media outlets last week, the joint governmental panel of Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and Ministry of the Environment has proposed a new 2035 target of a 60% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, below 2013 levels. This assumes a linear trajectory between Japan’s 2030 NDC target and the 2050 #netzero target. While not yet officially endorsed or submitted by the Japanese government, we find this proposed 2035 target would fall significantly short of 1.5˚C compatibility. Our recent analysis finds a reduction of at least 81% by 2035 below 2013 would be compatible with 1.5°C-aligned domestic emission reduction pathways (see figure below). This finding has formed the basis of a recent expert statement by Japanese climate scientists, academics, and activists for an ambitious 2035 target. Our analysis, which models 1.5°C-aligned pathways from 2020, shows Japan will have drifted far away by 2030 from the 1.5°C-aligned pathways. For the 2035 NDC, the Japanese government must consider the way forward to make up for the delayed action, instead of using it as an excuse for continued lack of ambition and action in the future.  The Asahi Shimbun newspaper reported that the Environment Ministry prevented a member of the governmental 2035 NDC formulation committee from expressing his opinion for a more ambitious target. This highlights the issues around transparency and fairness of energy and climate policy deliberation processes in Japan. We will assess Japan’s 2035 target as part of our recently-launched 2035 Climate Target Update Tracker once officially communicated by the Japanese government. Further reading: Our recent analysis on 1.5-aligned 2035 targets for major emitters https://lnkd.in/gQ9hjY9b The Japan Times article https://lnkd.in/geVfvksJ The Joint Expert Statement by climate scientists, academics, and activists here https://lnkd.in/e77Kp4db Asahi Shimbun article (in Japanese) https://lnkd.in/gSk293Ap

"Most of these fossil-fuel-exporting countries can get to look good with their domestic climate action. Their exported emissions are someone else's problem" Bill Hare tells Valerie Volcovici in this deep dive into #fossilfuel exports, with a sad story of the pollution around Egyptian cement kilns burning US coal ... #COP29

BLOG: The top 10 fossil fuel exporting countries represent around 60% of the total exported #fossilfuel emissions (2022 data). Here at COP29, the influence of the fossil fuel industry is ever-present. In this blog, we take a look at the top ten countries responsible for about 60% of global emissions from exported fossil fuels. At COP28, govts agreed to “transition away” from fossil fuels in the energy sector, reconfirming this decision at the UNGA, Sept 2024. But the fossil fuel production industry isn't a party to intl agreements, nor are the exported emissions counted in the country they come from. In the #US, #Canada, #Norway, #Australia and the #UK, domestic emissions are dropping, in contrast to their exported emissions. Many of these countries claim to be taking strong climate action, but their exported emissions are larger than their domestic emissions: #Norway and #Australia are standouts, but this is also important for #Azerbaijan, #SaudiArabia, #Canada and the #UAE. Rather than the well-established “polluter pays principle”, the polluters profit from pollution. And while the buyers of these fuels need to reduce demand, the fossil fuel export business model is not in line with the goal of “transitioning away” from fossil fuels. Read the blog: https://lnkd.in/gW7MWmCz

It's #transport day at #COP29 so it's a great time to talk benchmarks for this sector. We've produced updated #1o5C compatible benchmarks for the transport sector - for the world as a whole, and with a specific focus on seven countries: the #US, #EU, #China, #India, #Brazil, #SouthAfrica and #Indonesia. As transport demand & associated emissions continue to grow, the most critical part of this sector in the global energy transition is road transport emissions. The global passenger fleet should be emissions free by 2050. * to align w 1.5ºC, the world shld reach 100% EV sales by 2035 * Globally, #EVs shld achieve 75-95% of the light-duty vehicle market by 2030; 97-100% by 2035 * Developed countries & China shld take the lead, phasing out the sale of ICE vehicles as early as 2030. While the pace of action could be slower in developing countries they should still aim to achieve 100% EV sales share by latest 2040. At current uptake rates, EV sales could be well on track to reach 90% by 2030. This requires continued and additional policy support to keep up this growth. Read our blog (and report): https://lnkd.in/gS7BXBAR

2035 NDC ANALYSIS: while the #UAE's new 2035 #NDC falls within our #1o5C pathways range, it would have to jump from a 7% emissions reduction by 2030 to 44% by 2035, which is simply not credible, given it's nowhere near reaching the 2030 target. https://lnkd.in/gejYUDAC Current policy projections show UAE emissions will be 22% above its 2030 target and a massive 53% above its new 2035 target. Without details as to how the UAE would achieve these cuts, it is hard to view the target as credible. The UAE plans to rely solely on expensive and unreliable CCS to tackle fossil fuel powered electricity sector emissions when it could simply switch to much cheaper renewables. This perfectly illustrates how important it is for countries to continue to increase action between now and 2030: without strong pre-2030 action, actually achieving a 1.5˚C-aligned 2035 target may not be possible.  Read about it on our new Climate Target Update Tracker, launched today. Check back here for our analysis of new targets announced at #COP29Baku.   https://lnkd.in/gVXmXhhn NOTE: BRAZIL: the lack of details from Brazil on role of LULUCF sector in defining their 2035 NDC target for 2035 complicates our assessments of Brazil's ambition UK: while we have a headline 2035 target, which appears 1.5˚C compatible, we are awaiting detailed numbers for full assessment.

CAT GLOBAL UPDATE: the combined global effect of govt #climateAction has flat-lined over the last 3 years: a critical disconnect between the reality of the climate emergency & the lack of urgency on policies to deal with it. bit.ly/CAT_2024_global Key points: * 2024 has been marked by minimal overall progress, almost no new national climate targets or #netzero pledges as #fossilfuel emissions have continued rising, despite govt promises to align action with #1o5C goal. In some cases, our projections see warming rising. * If countries fail to substantially increase the ambition of their current 2030 targets & action in 2025, the long-term average human induced-global warming increase will breach 1.5°C in the early 2030s. The world is warming at a rate of ~0.3°C per decade. * The election of Donald Trump as US President could add 0.04 °C of warming by 2100 to our current policy estimate of 2.7°C (assuming the rollback of policies is limited to the United States) - to a few tenths of a degree to our optimistic scenario of 1.9°C. * The record-breaking progress in #renewables, #EVs & clean energy investments, now double those for fossil fuels (particularly oil and gas), have been cancelled out by both record levels of fossil fuel subsidies & funding for fossil fuel projects, which quadrupled in a single year * Governments, need to recognise the seriousness of this situation. As part of this year's update we've calculated the 2030 & 2035, 1.5˚C-aligned targets needed to get seven of biggest emitters on track, along with the COP Presidencies "Troika".

COUNTRY ANALYSIS: while the IRA is mobilising historic investments in clean energy, activating climate action across the country, the #US will still be far from meeting its climate target, let alone one that's 1.5˚C compatible. Overall rating "Insufficient". Despite Pres. Biden's climate progress, the US must make more drastic emissions cuts & bolster sectoral-level policies to address rising electricity demand. The govt also needs to stop increasing fossil fuel extraction & intl support for fossil fuels. Summary: https://bit.ly/CAT_US Policies & Action https://lnkd.in/gsWXxRie

COUNTRY ANALYSIS: #Türkiye’s climate policy: the good, the bad & the ugly. 120GW Wind & solar target by 2035 good, but 150GW shld align w #1o5C Overall rating still ‘Critically insufficient’, current policies improved to current ‘Highly insufficient" Efforts to increase fossil gas prodn & continued coal use undermine Türkiye’s #NetZero commitment. Türkiye's NDC shows little to no ambition to align w 1.5°C, allows emissions to continue rising & will be easily overachieved. If Türkiye is serious about its net zero by 2053 commitment it will need a much stronger 2030 target, a coal phase-out plan, and to stop investing in fossil fuels. Summary: https://bit.ly/CAT_TUR Policies & Action: https://lnkd.in/gAWjDKGb  

COUNTRY ANALYSIS: if the #UK wants to rebuild its #climate leadership reputation, its new #NDC must be ambitious, 1.5˚C-aligned, and paired with action. Credible policies cover only 1/3 of its current 2030 target. Overall rating (not updated): Insufficient (we will update next year). What's essential is significant increase in climate finance; this would send a positive signal to #COP29 The UK could be the first country to have an NDC aligned w 1.5˚C least cost pathways: its 2030 NDC is only 2% short. The 81% by 2035 target proposed by @theCCCuk wld be within the cost-effective 1.5C range. Summary page: https://bit.ly/CAT_UK See Policies section: https://lnkd.in/gP6VNYHX

To get the world on track to limit warming to 1.5°C, countries must:  ✅ Strengthen their economy-wide GHG emissions reductions targets for 2030 ✅ Set new and ambitious targets for 2035 Going one step further by nesting sector-specific targets under topline, economy-wide targets – such as those expressed in more concrete terms, like sales of electric vehicles or hectares of mangroves restored – can help make climate commitments, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), more actionable. While many countries haven’t comprehensively included sector-specific targets in previous NDCs, doing so this time around can set clear benchmarks for both the public and private sectors. These targets can not only guide implementation across government, but also signal to companies and investors a country’s future direction. To help inform this next round of NDCs, new research from our #SystemsChangeLab partners and CAT translates the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal into global, sector-specific targets for 2035, complementing previously published targets for 2030 and 2050. 🔗 https://lnkd.in/eQ64XDzB WRI Climate World Resources Institute Climate Analytics Bezos Earth Fund NewClimate Institute