Energy Modelling Lab

𝐒𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 – 𝐰𝐞𝐥𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝 𝐨𝐟 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐋𝐮𝐜𝐚𝐬 𝐌𝐨𝐬𝐡ø𝐣 Exploring the ”what if” is the centerpiece of energy systems modelling. Yet, since we don’t know the future, the “what if” comes with uncertainties that we want our models to handle. That's the focus of our master’s student Lucas Moshøj from DTU - Technical University of Denmark. Our senior consultant Kristoffer Steen Andersen supervises him. “Normally, you generate scenarios based on data, assumptions, and targets. If you want to allow for further uncertainty in your model runs, you must implement random variations in your variables, i.e. stochasticity,” Lucas Moshøj explains. Lucas Moshøj has created an energy systems model of a fictitious company located in the western region of Denmark. The company has a set energy demand and wishes to cover it by investing in green energy solutions. “I have generated scenarios of cost-optimal solutions and am now working on adding stochasticity like uncertainty about future electricity prices and the technologies' production capacity. When I use stochasticity systematically, we can narrow in on the margins of uncertainties,” Lucas Moshøj says. Indicating such margins of uncertainties is useful for the strategic planning of companies investing in green energy solutions and when making recommendations for technologies to this end. Lucas Moshøj spends one day a week at our office, sitting at a desk next to his supervisor, Kristoffer Steen Andersen. In this way, he can discuss problems and solutions with him and also listen to the conversations between the consultants at EML. “I’m gaining insights into the energy markets and energy systems modelling and planning challenges. I particularly enjoy learning of the hundreds of interrelations that govern these complex energy system models, and how to work with them,” Lucas Moshøj says. His master’s thesis should be finished by the beginning of February. “I’ve been inspired to continue working on energy systems modelling and analyses,” Lucas Moshøj adds. We are happy to know that and pleased to have Lucas at the office. #energytransition #climatechange #energysystemmodelling #renewableenergy #netzero

The 𝗗𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗵𝗶 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 and heating (I've done the CTRL-F for you): SHORT It calls for improved planning and accelerated deployment of district heating. And it has a lot on increasing the use of heat pumps. Quote: 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘴 𝘦𝘹𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘤𝘤𝘦𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘮𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘳𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘨𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘵 𝘯𝘦𝘵𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘬𝘴, 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘵 𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 [...]. EXTENDED (quotes) 1. [...] 𝘦𝘹𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘥 𝘢𝘤𝘤𝘦𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘮𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘦𝘴 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘙𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘸𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘌𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘨𝘺 𝘋𝘪𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 (𝘙𝘌𝘋) 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘳𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘨𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝙝𝙚𝙖𝙩 𝙣𝙚𝙩𝙬𝙤𝙧𝙠𝙨, 𝙝𝙚𝙖𝙩 𝙜𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙤𝙧𝙨 [...] Comment: Accelerated deployment through regulatory fast-tracking. 2. 𝘎𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘣𝘦𝘵𝘸𝘦𝘦𝘯 𝘱𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘳 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘨𝘺 𝘷𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 (𝘴𝘶𝘤𝘩 𝘢𝘴 𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘨𝘢𝘴, 𝘩𝘺𝘥𝘳𝘰𝘨𝘦𝘯, 𝙝𝙚𝙖𝙩 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘤𝘢𝘳𝘣𝘰𝘯), 𝘯𝘦𝘵𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘬 𝘥𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘭𝘰𝘱𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘯𝘦𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯 𝘢𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘨𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘯𝘦𝘳. 𝘈 𝙥𝙡𝙖𝙣𝙣𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙚𝙭𝙚𝙧𝙘𝙞𝙨𝙚 𝙘𝙤𝙪𝙡𝙙 𝙗𝙚 𝙙𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙡𝙤𝙥𝙚𝙙 𝙖𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙀𝙐 𝙡𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙡 𝘰𝘯 𝘨𝘳𝘪𝘥 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘧𝘭𝘦𝘹𝘪𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘯𝘦𝘦𝘥𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘦𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘯𝘦𝘦𝘥𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘣𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘵 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘯𝘦𝘹𝘵 20 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴, 𝘣𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘯 𝘌𝘕𝘛𝘚𝘖-𝘌 𝘵𝘦𝘯-𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘯. Comment: Energy planning - good. My alma mater Aalborg University will hopefully churn out a lot of good energy planners to support this. 3. 𝘎𝘦𝘰𝘨𝘳𝘢𝘱𝘩𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘹𝘪𝘮𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘸𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘭𝘰𝘱𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘴𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘳𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦, 𝘴𝘶𝘤𝘩 𝘢𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝙖𝙘𝙘𝙚𝙡𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙙 𝙗𝙪𝙞𝙡𝙙-𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙤𝙛 𝘳𝘦𝘨𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘦𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝙝𝙚𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙣𝙚𝙩𝙬𝙤𝙧𝙠𝙨. Comment: They consider excess heat. Someone has been taking notes on the last decade's European potential waste heat use Extended report: https://lnkd.in/dnaFJNg3

Our project webinar on #finance for #districtheating is now open for registration. Looking forward to see many of you. And if you have particular issues to address, let me know here or directly. Perhaps we can squeeze in requests 😊 Together with some of these good folks Kristina Lygnerud Urban Persson Prof. Dr. Tobias Popovic Gabriele Pesce Luis Sánchez García Kenneth Karlsson Euroheat & Power Dansk Fjernvarme Energy Modelling Lab

𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐆𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐧𝐛𝐮𝐫𝐠 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐧𝐞𝐰 𝐦𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥 How does changing demographics impact the energy plan of the Swedish city of Gothenburg? What if prices of biomass increase and the amount of waste for incineration dwindles? How could the city prepare for the Preemraff Lysekil oil refinery's eventual winding down and stopping supplying waste heat for the district heating networks? Under the supervision of our director, Kenneth Karlsson, and Professor Erik O. Ahlgren, the Chalmers University of Technology, PhD student Kushagra Gupta has built the TIMES_NE city model to answer such questions. The TIMES_NE city model represents a Northern European city with high heating demands and Kushagra has made a tailored version for Gothenburg, spanning 2018-2050. In the newly published article “City energy planning: Modelling long-term strategies under system uncertainties”, they explain the results of analyzing different scenarios. Based on the most solid, available data, the TIMES_NE city model has run scenarios to explore the impact of the City Energy Plan that the City Council has adopted. What are the possible pathways to meeting the emission reduction targets? The model has generated projections of future electricity and energy demand in the heating and transportation sector under different assumptions and constraints. It has also generated projections on the most cost-efficient technologies and which kind of energy resources will be needed. Among the results concerning the transportation sector are: ✺ While electric vehicles (EVs) already started becoming economically competitive, further EV deployments depend on investments in charging infrastructure. ✺ The need for additional infrastructure for gas-filling stations makes the deployment of biogas vehicles uneconomical from a systems perspective. ✺To reach the targets of the City Energy Plan, cost-competitive biofuels are essential in the short term to mitigate transport sector emissions rapidly. When it comes to the heating sector, the scenarios indicate that ✺ The heat from waste incineration and refineries as energy resources for district heating could be reduced by 50 pct. by 2050 and replaced by heat pumps and biomass combined heat and power plants. ✺ Individual heating pumps could cover more than 50 pct. of heating demand by 2050, with district heating covering the rest, depending on the prices of electricity and biomass.   The article "City Energy Planning: Modelling Long-term Strategies under System Uncertainties" is published in Energy Strategy Reviews Volume 56, November 2024 (link in the comment below). #energytransition #renewableenergy #climatechange #netzero

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐛𝐞 𝐦𝐮𝐜𝐡 𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 This article in The Economist is interesting and has an optimistic perspective that we gladly share. We get the same results in the scenarios we run in our energy system models: If you make sure to transition reasonably, it won't be much more expensive than if you stuck to fossil fuels - a country like Vietnam could even save money and benefit from energy self-sufficiency. “The Economist has looked at estimates of the global cost of an “energy transition” to a zero-emissions world from a range of economists, consultants, and other researchers—the sort of estimates that routinely form the basis for policymaking. They range from around $3trn a year to almost $12trn a year, which is indeed a lot. But these figures are overblown in four important ways.” ☛“First, the scenarios being costed tend to involve absurdly speedy (and therefore expensive) emissions cuts.” ☛“Second, they assume that the population and economy of the world, and especially of developing countries, will grow implausibly rapidly, spurring pell-mell energy consumption.” ☛“Third, such models also have a record of severely underestimating how quickly the cost of crucial low-carbon technologies such as solar power will fall.” ☛“Fourth and finally, the estimates disgorged by such modelling tend not to account for the fact that, no matter what, the world will need to invest heavily to expand energy production, be it clean or sooty. Thus, the capital expenditure needed to meet the main goal set by the Paris Agreement—to keep global warming “well below” 2°C—should not be considered in isolation but compared with alternative scenarios in which rising demand for energy is met by dirtier fuels. “The incremental bill to cut emissions is likely to be less than $1trn a year, which is to say less than one percent of global GDP—not peanuts, but not an unaffordable pipe dream, either. That may sound optimistic, but it is probably still an overestimate since it corrects only for the fourth flaw in most estimates: the failure to account for the cost of business as usual.”   https://lnkd.in/dvXNg63C   #energytransition #climatechange #energysystemmodelling #enewableenergy #netzero

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐅𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐀𝐳𝐞𝐫𝐛𝐚𝐢𝐣𝐚𝐧 Long-term, strategic energy planning is high on the agenda at COP29 in Baku. We are supporting the government of Azerbaijan in this very endeavor: We have built a tailored energy systems model, the TIMES-AZ model, representing the full energy system of all sectors of the Azeri economy. Our director, Kenneth Karlsson, visited Baku earlier this year to participate in launching the project. The TIMES-AZ model has allowed us to generate different scenarios of possible pathways to reach the target of Net Zero by 2050. Based on the most solid data available, we have made projections of electricity and energy demand, emissions, needed production capacities, needed investments, and more. The model is an optimization model and has a technology catalog built-in. It is thus able to designate the cheapest and most efficient technologies that could be used for a green transition. The TIMES-AZ model can be used to test the impact of policies such as CO2 taxes, reduced electricity subsidies, a set ban on combustion engine vehicles, or a target of increased electricity export. As the overall trend is that wind and sun are outperforming fossil fuels, oil states like Azerbaijan face a tremendous challenge: While the demand for oil- and gas and the prices will be progressively dwindling, Azerbaijan must simultaneously decarbonize and develop alternative sources of income. At present, gas and oil make up 90% of Azerbaijan's export revenues and 60% of its finances. Luckily, Azerbaijan is also gifted with enough wind and solar energy resources potential to support a green transition. With the TIMES-AZ at hand and different scenarios showing potential pathways, the government of Azerbaijan will be able to make informed decisions on the most appropriate pathway, given economic and political priorities. The project is entitled “Developing a Pathway to Reach Net Zero for the power sector of Azerbaijan”. It’s an initial step within a broader cooperation between the Ministry of Energy and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), aiming to provide holistic support to clean energy transition to the country. TETRA Tech is in the lead. #Energytransition #Climatechange #renewableenergy #netzero #energy  

👏𝐅𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬 𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐰𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐮𝐩👏 Today we cannot help but celebrate the five-year birthday of our company and our accomplishments all along 👏👏👏. The two people working from home have now proliferated into 10 people working at our office, sharing the passion for energy modelling: ☛ It’s all about the “what if?”. ☛ It’s all about exploring possibilities. ☛ It’s all about generating scenarios showing the results of the “what if?”. Down the road we have been answering a lot of questions, supported strategic planning, and designated pathways to reach targets of energy efficiency and emission reductions: What if a country increases the carbon taxes? How much would investments in clean energy technologies and energy efficiency increase? How much faster would the green transition move ahead? What would be the cheapest and most efficient technology solutions, if a factory wants to be net zero? What if Denmark cut back the number of cows? How big an area used for growing cow fodder could be converted to other crops? How much would the GHG emissions be reduced? Our back catalog spans modelling the energy systems of Viet Nam, Jordan, Kuwait, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and the Nordic countries, the district heating networks of Copenhagen, the Talagh district of Dublin, Trollhättan, and Mölndal, the bio-resources of Denmark, and the energy systems of a factory and a campus. And more. Simultaneously, we have conducted research and contributed to substantial improvements of our preferred modelling framework, the TIMES energy systems modelling framework, developed by a working group under the IEA. Likewise, we have supervised PhD and master’s students. We want to thank all our partners and clients for cooperating with us. It’s been a great pleasure. “What if” we collaborate on driving innovation and promoting the green transition? This is what Energy Modelling Lab will do in the next five years. We look forward to continuing modelling, exploring, and supporting strategic energy planning to reach net zero. #ClimateAction #ClimateChange #EnergyTransition #EnergyModelling #NetZero

𝐂𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐄𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲 𝐏𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐟 𝐆𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐧𝐛𝐮𝐫𝐠 The green transition of city energy systems is key to reaching climate targets – at present, cities account for about 66 pct. of the total final energy consumption and more than 75pct. of global CO2 emissions. This is why Kushagra Gupta has chosen to focus on city energy planning in his PhD and our director Kenneth Karlsson is very pleased to supervise his study. Kushagra Gupta is doing his PhD at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden under Professor Erik Ahlgren. Kushagra Gupta is modelling the Gothenburg city energy system as a case study. The model is built by using the TIMES energy systems modelling framework. The model allows for investigating the impact of the city energy plan on the long-term development of energy systems. It also enables us to explore how the city energy plans align with the national climate targets from a long-term perspective. The novelty of the study lies in adopting an integrated model approach. This approach allows for exploring intra and inter-sectorial linkages. Furthermore, the study explores the supply and demand side interactions, whereas most studies focus on either the supply or demand side. We are already getting interesting results from the modelling. One is identifying and accounting for a competition of resources among sectors that could occur during the green transition. Kushagra Gupta began working on his PhD in 2021 and plans to finish in 2026. We look forward to sharing the results and hope city energy planners benefit from the new insights and planning tools. Read more in our article "City Energy Planning: Modeling Long-term Strategies under System Uncertainties" in the latest issue of Energy Strategy Reviews - https://lnkd.in/dJbuXstJ #cityplanning #Energytransition #Netzero #Climatechange #Energy #Energymodelling

Thank you very much for your feedback. It was our pleasure to conduct the training and have you on board.

𝐖𝐞𝐥𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐭 𝐇𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 Welcome to Marion Lois Tan, who has started as a student assistant.   Marion came to Denmark from the Philippines a month ago to pursue her master's at DTU - Technical University of Denmark.   She is an experienced data analyst and has gained valuable expertise from working at the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities in Manila.   Marion will support Daniel Møller Sneum, the coordinator of the research project “Financial Frameworks’ Impact on District Heating.” Marion will focus on data collection and processing.   We look forward to working with Marion and hope she will enjoy working with us.   #energytransition #energy #climatechange #netzero #districtheating #districtenergy