Hallelujah, he's a MAGA H-1B believer!

Fault lines are appearing in the Republican Party over immigration, a signature promise in Donald Trump's return to the White House. Unsurprisingly, the pressure point is over high-skilled immigration through the H-1B visa programme, which mainly draws in tech professionals from India. On Tuesday, the incoming president said that he had not changed his mind over the contentious issue, adding that the US needs competent and smart people for the country.

Trump's core constituency has a strong nativist element that informed his approach to H-1B visas in his first term. He previously had stated that it was snatching away American jobs. Trump's re-election in November has widened his party's support base to the tech industry - most notably Elon Musk, of course - which champions the need for foreign workers. Musk has gone from 'can't do without' foreign tech workers to 'we need to fix' the H-1B programme, which was Trump's position in 2020. In 2024, Musk's boss is an H-1B believer. Not only is Trump back, but he is stronger in his second term when presidential thoughts turn to political legacies. Of course, the visa programme can be tightened administratively to avoid abuse by Silicon Valley. But that merely blurs the hard line over skilled legal immigration. Whether all this creates lasting friction with his base will depend on how well he communicates the economic benefits of H-1B to the base.

Illegal immigration is unlikely to be contested as vigorously within the party. Neither is inflation. The Republicans will do the maths on deportation and wage inflation to limit Trump's ambition. The same logic applies to promised tax cuts and tariff hikes. These are addressed to voters for whom jobs and prices matter. But a new tribe of Trump favourites are gaining a voice in the administration. This bunch has more skin in the game to keep inflation at bay. There's more than a sliver of probability that Trump 2.0 will not be rockier than the first.