¿Cómo utilizar la previsión estratégica para tomar mejores decisiones?

Once the purpose is established, it will serve as a guide of values in your decision-making process, however, it is necessary to go beyond the purpose and establish an ambition. Ambition will serve as a goal to be achieved, having an intrinsic challenge in itself.

Actions and instances of decision making without foresight is high risk that can ruin everything and cause irreparable damage in the future.

Los líderes deben predicar con el ejemplo, demostrar que el enfoque no es una limitación (innovación frugal), sino una oportunidad en un mundo mundo donde la innovación a menudo se asocia con la creación de algo completamente nuevo y la adopción de tecnologías de vanguardia. Deben comunicar claramente la importancia de la sostenibilidad y eficiencia. Se debe recompensar las soluciones innovadoras que maximizan el valor con recursos mínimos.

Siento que este enfoque centrado en predicción y planificación lineal, puede resultar insuficiente en el contexto actual de cambio acelerado y disrupción constante. La idea de que podemos "escanear el entorno" así como si fuera un código de barra en un almacén y predecir el futuro con certeza, es una visión anticuada de la planificación estratégica. Debemos abrazar la incertidumbre del futuro y centrarnos en explorar un abanico de posibilidades, en lugar de intentar predecir un único resultado. No se trata solo de identificar trends y predecir la evolución, si no entender las fuerzas subyacentes que impulsan ese cambio y como podemos influir en ellas.

Depending on the sector the company belongs to, development or disruption cycles can be shorter or longer, mapping the environment and trends must take into account the evolution of industry cycles. Companies with longer cycles must especially take into account mega-trends, disruptions usually resulting from accumulated changes in Technology, Globalization, demography and the environment, which can generate major impacts on companies. Not limited to these factors, it is necessary to identify what are critical factors for your business, the replacement factors of your products, understanding the root cause of changes in these factors will help to understand trends and identify potential disruptors in the industry

It is not unusual to companies for the scenario exercise to be summarized as "budget +10% -10%". This is a common over-simplification of predictive scenario development. Budgets are certainly fundamental and necessary tools for companies, however, the development of scenarios has the purpose of going further. The proposal is to bring a wide range of perspectives to each of the factors studied and to identify potential business opportunities and risks.

Entender que la única constante hoy en día es la incertidumbre es ya tener el 50% del trabajo hecho, todo lo que nazca desde esa perspectiva te acercará a generar escenarios que te permitan moldear el futuro, Jamás predecirlo, entendiendo que ese enfoque está anticuado. La habilidad para generar escenarios solo te dará iluminación en un futuro, con eso podrás tomar decisiones más informadas y resilientes. Agregar creatividad en este paso te dará un activo valioso a la hora de prosperar en este mundo cada vez más complejo.

It is impossible for a company to prepare for all possible scenarios and remain competitive in the market. Therefore, it will be necessary to establish what the most likely scenarios will be, it is important to emphasize that it is not the desirable scenario that most favors the company, but rather the one that is strengthened or reinforced by market trends. It is worth mentioning that the critical factors must be identified, eg. potential legislation, environmental risk, substitute product etc.

Although the market intelligence area has a fundamental role in monitoring the market, in identifying marketing and competitive trends, monitoring scenarios is an activity where each department must assume its role in monitoring critical issues. This can take the form of indicators, discussions or periodic reports, although this monitoring is important, a group of professionals must be alert to unexpected changes.

The most correct or most common statement is that none of the projected scenarios will occur exactly as predicted, but this is not the purpose of the exercise either. The purpose is to prepare the company to face unforeseen situations, organize itself to take advantage of emerging opportunities and protect itself against risks, ensuring the perpetuity of the organization.