Israel Is Going It Alone in Lebanon

Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep. It’s the last day of our UNGA coverage here at SitRep, but head over to the main site where we have events, op-eds, and lots more.

Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: Israel is unlikely to get much international support if it launches a ground operation in Lebanon, Norway’s foreign minister weighs in on the spiraling Middle East unrest, and Mr. Zelensky goes to Washington.

Israel Alone

On Wednesday evening, the White House issued a joint statement, endorsed by allies in Europe and Asia as well as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, calling for an immediate 21-day cease-fire across the Israel-Lebanon border, seeking to buy time for diplomacy to avert a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah.

“This has been an all-out effort by the administration to reach this moment,” a senior Biden administration official said on a call with reporters after, speaking on condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the White House. “We are grateful to both the Israelis and Lebanese government in working tirelessly to get to this moment.”

By the next morning, the deal seemed dead, with Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz posting on X, “There will be no cease-fire in the north.”

The threat of further war in the Middle East has loomed large over the United Nations General Assembly this week, as Israel dramatically expanded its strikes on Hezbollah targets on Monday, killing some 500 people, including dozens of children, according to the Lebanese health ministry.

When Israel went to war against Hamas in Gaza, it was largely seen by the country’s Western partners as a justified act of self-defense in response to the militant group’s bloody attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.

But although it was Hezbollah that began firing on Israel on Oct. 8, claiming solidarity with Hamas, there is a markedly different tone this time around, even among Israel’s close Western partners as they seek to prevent the country from entering into a war with Hezbollah that has the potential to be catastrophic for both Lebanon and Israel as well as the wider region.

Israel Defense Forces chief Herzi Halevi told troops on Wednesday that Israel plans to “destroy” Hezbollah and “decisively destroy their infrastructure” to enable at least 60,000 Israelis who have fled their homes in the northern border region since Oct. 7 to return. (Over the border, more than 102,000 Lebanese civilians have also fled the area, a count that continues to rise with Israeli airstrikes growing in intensity.)

Applying pressure. Even before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in New York on Thursday ahead of his expected address to the U.N. General Assembly on Friday, one thing was already clear from Western officials and U.N. delegates here: If Israel goes into Lebanon, it will be going at it alone, with limited international support.

At a Wednesday night U.N. Security Council meeting convened to discuss escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, there were widespread calls for both parties to immediately cease hostilities.

“The people of Lebanon, as well as the people of Israel and the people of the world, cannot afford Lebanon to become another Gaza,” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres told the council.

“We are on the brink, the precipice. At a few minutes to midnight,” British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said in a speech.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Defense Department said it was not providing Israel with any support—including intelligence help—in its operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon; however, at a press conference in London on Thursday, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the U.S. commitment to help Israel defend itself has not changed.

“We’ve been committed from the very beginning to help Israel, provide the things that are necessary for them to be able to protect their sovereign territory, and that hasn’t changed and won’t change in the future,” Austin said.

Israel also said on Thursday that it had secured an $8.7 billion aid package from the United States. The money will be used to “significantly strengthen critical [air defense] systems such as Iron Dome and David’s Sling while supporting the continued development of an advanced high-powered laser defense system currently in its later stages of development,” Israel’s Defense Ministry said in a statement.

But Israel is unlikely to see that kind of support from other Western countries.

Tanja Fajon, Slovenia’s deputy prime minister and foreign minister, said on Thursday that the small European country used the U.N. Security Council meeting to urge member states to “use your leverage, use our international presence on one hand on the Israel government to enhance [the] cease-fire, to withdraw from occupied Palestinian territories, respect our obligations as responsible member states of this organization to follow international law and the U.N. Charter.”

“One could ask the question what the objectives are of what Israel is doing today,” outgoing Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo told SitRep on Tuesday. “If the objective is to increase the security of the inhabitants of Israel, today, actually, you only see the opposite happening.”

The Security Council is set to meet on Friday to discuss the situation in the Middle East, including Lebanon and Gaza—the same day that Netanyahu is set to address the General Assembly.

The View From Norway

SitRep caught up with Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide on Thursday morning to discuss the situation in the Middle East. Norway joined Spain and Ireland in recognizing a Palestinian state this year and is co-hosting a meeting Thrusday evening with Saudi Arabia and European Union foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell to discuss Palestinian statehood.

Eide said he wants Norway to be the “group leader” of Palestine’s Western friends, but he added that it was vital to work with other states in the region to forge the path to a two-state solution. “The idea that a Western angel flies in to fix the problem here is gone,” he said.

Eide walked us through the intricacies of trying to find an off-ramp to avert an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah. The Iran-backed militant group says it won’t stop attacking Israel until there is a cease-fire in Gaza, directly linking the two conflicts. In a mirror image, Eide said, Israel might be more likely to accept a cease-fire on its northern border with Lebanon than in Gaza, but it would not do so if it was tied to a cessation of hostilities in Gaza. “You see the circle,” Eide said.

“What I think would be most likely to work would be a combined solution, which is a cease-fire in Gaza, which then leads to a day-after process for Palestine and a cease-fire in Lebanon,” said Eide, who was not optimistic that an immediate off-ramp to avert a war could be secured in the coming days. “Let’s not lose hope, but I think the odds are low.”

On the Button

What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.

More arms. The Biden administration announced a whopping $8 billion in U.S. military aid for Ukraine ahead of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s White House visit Thursday afternoon. The package includes $5.5 billion in weapons off the shelf from Pentagon stockpiles, money that was set to expire at the end of the month.

The Pentagon will also give Ukraine $2.4 billion in assistance from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, a fund that pays for weapons systems that are yet to be built, and will include air defense, drones, and air-to-ground munitions and support to Ukraine’s defense industrial base. As Politico reported, the United States will send the joint standoff weapon—a medium-range missile—for F-16 fighter jets and will add 18 more Ukrainian pilots to the training program. Also on the way is one more Patriot air defense battery.

Let’s get capable. The AUKUS defense partnership comprising Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States is looking to co-develop more high-tech weapons to deal with China, officials told DefenseScoop. The news comes as Austin is in London for a ministerial meeting with his Australian and British counterparts. Details to come on what emerging technologies could be added.

Crisis averted. Well, just barely. Congress reached a deal to fund the U.S. government with another continuing resolution late Wednesday night, after House Republicans abandoned a proposal demanded by former U.S. President Donald Trump that would have required U.S. voters in every state to provide proof of citizenship as part of the voter registration process. However, the approved package will provide $231 million more in funding for the U.S. Secret Service after two assassination attempts against Trump in as many months. The bill now goes to U.S. President Joe Biden for signature.

Snapshot

United Nations workers prepare to escort Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to the podium during the United Nations General Assembly at the U.N. headquarters in New York City on Sept. 26. Stephanie Keith/Getty Images

Coming Up at UNGA

If you’ve been reading this far, you’ll already know that Netanyahu arrived in New York on Thursday and speaks to the General Assembly on Friday, where he will be greeted by protests likely to further snarl Midtown traffic.

Also speaking on Friday: Barbadian Prime Minister Mia Mottley, a possible future contender for U.N. secretary-general, and Bangladesh’s caretaker leader, Muhammad Yunus.

Put On Your Radar

Monday, Sept. 30: U.N. General Assembly general debate ends.

Tuesday, Oct. 1: Vice presidential candidates Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are set to debate in New York. Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter turns 100. Claudia Sheinbaum is inaugurated as Mexico’s president in Mexico City. Former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte becomes NATO secretary-general.

Quote of the Day

“The passions that naturally arise during an election campaign should never serve as a pretext for xenophobia or racism in a country such as the United States—a country forged by immigrants from all countries.”

—Haiti’s caretaker leader, Edgard Leblanc Fils, in his speech to the United Nations, addresses false claims made by Vance and Trump that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, have eaten dogs and cats.

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Whiskey Tango Foxtrot

Bad timing. New York City Mayor Eric Adams was spotted at the Metropolitan Museum of Art for a reception with Biden and top world leaders, just as news broke that he had been indicted on corruption charges.