WiredUp

Is the Euphoria for Real ? From almost a USD 15-16 Billion net short USD positioning of the market a few weeks back, estimates are overall market is approx USD 20 billion long Dollars. This is on what? Bets on Trump coming to power and yes he did ! so now what ? Will he really halt the rate cuts ? Will he induce inflation ? Will he create trade wars? These are the questions affecting the sentiments but I'd say are very hypothetical , to say the least. Is the market not reading too much here ? Have we forgotten the inherent issues of Debt ceiling, rating challenges, unemployment, lowered inflation etc.. Let’s do a quick recap of what transpired over the last 36 hours with my personal read and projections… Key Event: US Elections Outcome: Trump wins with a strong majority, securing control of the Senate and nearing control of the House. Policy Implications: With full control, Trump gains independence on policies related to tariffs, lower taxes, and more. Market Reaction 1. Dollar Surge: Investors have flocked to the dollar: 2. EURUSD: Dropped from 1.0930 to 1.0675 yesterday, currently rebounding to 1.0824. 3. USDJPY: Rose to 154.50 from 151.50, currently around 152.95. 4. GBPUSD: Fell to 1.28 yesterday, now back to 1.30. 5. USDINR: Moved from 84.13 to 84.35, currently trading at 84.29. My analysis & Core View 1. The dollar surge is fueled by weak fundamentals and is likely short-lived. 2. Trump has a longstanding policy stance favoring a weaker dollar 3. Economic cycles, rather than political shifts, will be the main drivers and we have already entered a dollar bear cycle ( timing may play the spoiler ) Core Projections 1. Dollar reaction: Short-lived 2. Dollar index: Expected to fall to 93 over the next 12 months 3. EURUSD: Likely to reach 1.15 4. GBPUSD: Expected to rise to 1.37 5. USDINR: Likely to base out around 83.30 Will this mean I will not cut my long EUR, GBP and AUD ? absolutely I will ! refer to my previous note pre US NFP. This is FX markets and the only constant is Volatility ! We will see 2-way moves but at the core, I see dollar dipping over the period. Recommended Strategy- 1. Buy dips aggressively in cross-currency pairs as EUR, GBP, AUD 2. Sell USDINR in a measured manner, preferring options 3. Use options again for buying USDINR at current levels 4. Prefer USD borrowings and hedge with Options 5. Buy US bonds for diversified exposure Manage your Fx risks seamlessly with our fully automated and one of its kind -Integration free-FX tool "WiredUp". WiredUp's motto : You could be right, You could be wrong no matter whether you are short , or you are long (sorry for my weak creative skills here) but WiredUp will always keep you on the right side of "Prudence" with Real-Time Monitoring of your very own exposures. Give us a shout WiredUp Stay Wired, Sonali

We wake up post the US NFP.... What a rocky ride it’s been since the last US NFP report flipped the script on market expectations. Here’s a quick recap and some insights into what the markets are hinting at beneath the surface: Dollar Index Tumbles: Prior to the last fed meeting , we saw the dollar index hit hard, as if everything was moving into US treasuries. US Yields were in a freefall. Jackson Hole & Job Protection Narrative: Powell’s Jackson Hole statements spurred market optimism with a “jobs protection at all costs” stance, leading to anticipation of aggressive Fed rate cuts. Data Rebound Post-Jackson: Mixed data after Jackson Hole led markets to anticipate only a 25 bps cut in the September meeting. Fed Blackout & Timiraos Leak: During the Fed blackout, insider Timiraos hinted at a 50 bps cut, setting up a market expectation bombshell. September Meeting - 50 bps Cut: The Fed delivered the 50 bps cut but paired it with a surprisingly optimistic economic outlook. NFP Surprise Surge: The biggest shift came when the September NFP print shot up over 250k from sub-100k levels. The dollar index has been on a roar since, with data supporting strong growth and solid consumer confidence. Trump’s Trades & Polls: Meanwhile, the probability of a Trump victory is inching up as polling shifts, adding an additional layer to the market’s theme. The Next NFP Tomorrow and India Holiday: With India markets closed tomorrow, we’ll wake up to the NFP’s aftermath, and it could be volatile to say the least. My 2-bits of these last 2 months is - This is FX markets. It needs a theme to play on and there is abolsutely no constant except for Volatility and if that's not there then I, for sure is a fish out of water :) ..Whether US cut rates, stays with status-quo in 1-2 meetings , we will see new normals in very short periods of time. Markets are nervous, attention spans are limited ,many have burnt hands this year with a sudden BOJ shift , year end is approaching and volatility will only increase. In my view, the next NFP tomorrow will have a lower headline number ( it could be < 100) with a balancing act coming from average hourly earnings. Market will see moves but they wont be as large as they were the last NFP. You know why ? coz someone will reserve that for tuesday, the US results day. Disclaimer: As much as I may want to live with the fact " I'm the smart one" someone somewhere is always there to pull the challenge ! So, for now stay cautious and enjoy the festive days. Happy Diwali ! Stay Wired, Sonali WiredUp

Hello Everyone, Exciting news from WiredUp, the India Born 1st Global Forex Enterprise Platform! The complete FX system has undergone significant upgrades this year, making it universally accessible on both web and mobile platforms. Explore WiredUp today! WiredUp is actively seeking global partners for distributorship in key regions like the US, UK, Singapore, and more. Companies and Banks of all sizes can benefit from this non-integration led, easy-to-use system. It's your one-stop solution for all activities associated with Forex ! Interested in partnering with us? Reach out via LinkedIn message to discuss attractive terms for collaboration. Let's embark on this journey together and shape the future of Global Forex Risk Management. Stay Wired, WiredUp

It was a pleasure to conduct FX Risk Management training session on behalf of FEDAI for fellow bankers. These are some of the most enriching experiences, interacting with my own fraternity and relating to day-to - day applications of the concepts we covered in the discussion . FX is a field , where learning just never stops and as one goes deeper into it , it comes out it’s still only the tip . Any opportunity to contribute to my very own FX space and be a part of a process to bridge knowledge gaps , is priceless . Thank you FEDAI for the opportunity. Stay Wired , Sonali

To all FX users , Gentle reminder to register for the webinar tomorrow at 11 am, PS: This is not a usual " gyani ji ke nuske " session with never ending slides but more like a helpline to clear any query anyone may have with new FX regime "gone and going " live in both OTC and Exchange. Idea is to clear gaps in understanding of new rules and "how and what " should and can be done in this scenario. Registration link: 👉 https://lnkd.in/gEr3dbYv Alternatively, you can register on our website at https://www.bidask.in with your details. Webinar Details: 👉 Date: 6th April 2024 👉 Time: 11:00 AM 👉 Webinar link: To be shared over registered email and WhatsApp We look forward to your active participation in this insightful session. Stay Wired, Team WiredUp

[Announcement: Webinar on New Forex Regime in OTC & NSE Apr '24] Dear FX Community, With the new Forex regime in OTC & NSE, we've noticed a significant influx of inquiries and responses, highlighting widespread concerns and uncertainties. Unfortunately, there's also misinformation circulating, adding to the confusion. To provide clarity and dispel misconceptions, our founder and CEO, Sonali Puri is hosting a FREE webinar to discuss the current state of FX markets and chart a path forward. Your participation would result in better understanding and informed decision-making. Registration link: 👉 https://lnkd.in/gEr3dbYv Alternatively, you can register on our website at https://www.bidask.in with your details. Webinar Details: 👉 Date: Saturday, 6th April 2024 👉 Time: 11:00 AM 👉 Webinar link: To be shared over registered email and WhatsApp We look forward to your active participation in this insightful session. Best, Team WiredUp #forex #forextrading #nse #fxmarkets #fx