[en] Highlights: • Land degradation and wealth were analysed at various planning scales in Italy. • Land sensitivity to degradation increases more rapidly in economically advanced contexts. • Linear models are the best fit at all planning scales. • Developmental policies have less impact on land degradation in specific local contexts. • Multi-scale regressions provided insights into complex ecological-economic processes. This study examines the intrinsic relationship between land degradation and the accumulation of wealth at various planning scales in Italy, a desertification hotspot in Southern Europe. Local development was scrutinized at four planning scales (administrative regions, provinces, economic districts, and municipalities) to verify if land sensitivity to degradation increases over time more rapidly in economically advanced contexts. Land sensitivity to degradation increased between the early 1990s and the early 2010s contrary to the level of income per-capita based on linear, squared, cubic, and fourth-grade polynomial specifications. Spatially implicit and explicit statistical approaches indicate linear models are the best fit at all planning scales. The income-land degradation relationship was negative, showing the role of both centralized and decentralized planning scales, and suggesting that developmental policies may have less impact on land degradation in specific territorial contexts. More suited local models displayed a negative socio-economic development impact in more affected Southern districts. Checking for spatial heterogeneity, multi-scale regressions provided insights into complex ecological-economic processes whilst also evaluating the impact of regional development at different planning levels contributing to design scalable mitigation policies against desertification.

[en] Experiencing climate changes and increased human pressure, Mediterranean regions are considered representative hotspots of desertification. However, relatively few studies have been devoted to quantify the individual impact of different factors shaping land sensitivity to desertification in these contexts. Our study contributes to this deserving (positive and normative) issue with a diachronic analysis of the impact of multiple drivers of desertification risk on six indicators of land sensitivity based on the Environmentally Sensitive Area (ESA) approach. Indicators (average and maximum ESA score, coefficient of variation and normalized range in the ESA scores, share of ‘fragile’ and ‘critical’ areas in total landscape) were calculated in 777 rural districts of Italy at three time points (early-1960s, early-1990s, and early-2010s). Multivariate models were used to determine the impact of 12 predictors (climate, soil, vegetation, and land management quality) on each indicator of land sensitivity. Results of the analysis identified two non-redundant dimensions respectively associated with the average level of land sensitivity and its intrinsic variability across space. Impacts of climate and vegetation qualities on the level of land sensitivity were high, decreasing over time, and more intense respectively in Northern and Southern Italy. Impacts of soil and land management qualities were moderate, increasing over time, and involving almost all the country's area. Our study emphasizes the role of context-based measures promoting sustainable land management. The ‘local’ dimension proved to be crucial in any strategy of risk mitigation undertaken at disaggregated spatial scales.