New study on the link between circular economy and GHG in the global building sector:
Residential and non-residential buildings are a major contributor to human well-being. At the same time, buildings cause 30% of final energy use, 18% of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), and about 65% of material accumulation globally. With electrification and higher energy efficiency of buildings, material-related emissions gain relevance. The circular economy (CE) strategies, narrow, slow, and close, together with wooden buildings, can reduce material-related emissions. We provide a comprehensive set of building stock transformation scenarios for 10 world regions until 2060, including the full CE spectrum plus wood-intensive buildings.
The 2020–2050 global cumulative new construction ranges from 150 to 280 billion m² for residential and 70-120 billion m² for non-residential buildings. Ambitious CE reduces cumulative 2020–2050 primary material demand from 80 to 30 gigatons (Gt) for cement and from 35 to 15 Gt for steel.
We report elasticities: Lowering floor space demand by 1 m² per capita leads
to global savings of 800-2500 megatons (Mt) of cement, 300-1000 Mt of steel, and 3-10 Gt CO2 -eq, depending on industry decarbonization and CE roll-out. Each additional Mt of structural timber leads to savings of 0.4-0.55 Mt of cement, 0.6-0.85 Mt of steel, and 0.8-1.8 Mt CO2 -eq of system-wide GHGE. CE reduces 2020–2050 cumulative GHGE by up to 44%, where the highest contribution comes from the narrow CE strategies, that is, lower floorspace and lightweight buildings. Very low carbon emission trajectories are possible only when combining supply- and demand-side strategies.
Link to paper: https://lnkd.in/eu8KGwne
Contributors: Edgar Hertwich Niko Heeren , and Fabio Carrer
