Montel Analytics

Join us at the Montel Analytics stand #3D116 at E-world energy & water 2025. Meet all the familiar faces from our team, discuss market insights, and explore how our analytics tools and services can help you navigate the energy markets with confidence.   ✅ Book a meeting with our experts now ✅ Discover our latest analytics solutions ✅ Gain live market insights at exclusive on-stand webinars   📅 Book your meeting now and secure time with our team at stand #3D116. We look forward to connecting and showcasing how Montel Analytics can support your business!   https://lnkd.in/erer3rqr   #EWorld2025 #MontelAnalytics #EnergyMarkets #Stand3D116

What is Flow-Based Market Coupling (FBMC)? FBMC was introduced in the Nordic electricity market on 29 October 2024, marking a significant milestone in cross-border electricity trading. To help you understand this development, we’re hosting a free educational webinar today at 2 PM CET, led by our Nordic market expert Priyanka Shinde. Register now: https://lnkd.in/eijAyR3u Key topics include: ▪️Impact on Cross-Border Capacity Allocation: Learn how FBMC optimises transmission capacity use. ▪️Connecting Grid and Market: See how FBMC links physical grid structures to market operations. ▪️Key Market Metrics: Explore metrics like bidding zone net positions. ▪️Non-Intuitive Flows: What are they, and why do they matter? ▪️Flow-Based Domains: Understand FBMC parameters and their real-world applications. ▪️Intraday Updates: Discover changes in capacity calculations since FBMC's introduction. Have you signed up yet? Don’t miss this opportunity—register now! #energymarkets #nordics #energyprices #FBMC

2024 GB Annual Report is out now!   👉 Get the full FREE report here: https://lnkd.in/eSKXRFdT   Here are the key highlights from 2024:   1️⃣ Record Renewables Output:    ▪️Renewables hit 118 TWh, with wind leading the charge at 83 TWh (70% of total renewables).  ▪️Biomass added 19 TWh (16%) and solar contributed 13 TWh (11%). 2️⃣ Gas Generation Drops:    ▪️Gas-fired power fell to 73 TWh, its lowest level in 20 years, down 16% year-on-year. 3️⃣ Lower Prices Across the Board:    ▪️Gas prices averaged GBP 29/MWh, down from GBP 34/MWh in 2023.  ▪️Day-ahead power prices dropped nearly 23% to GBP 72.58/MWh. 4️⃣ More Negative Prices:    ▪️139 hours of negative prices were recorded, up from 86 hours in 2023. 5️⃣ Imports Surge:    ▪️Power imports via interconnectors rose 40% to an average of 3.8 GW.  ▪️France and Norway were the top exporters, supplying 2.2 GW and 1.1 GW, respectively. #EnergyTransition #RenewableEnergy #UKPowerMarket #SustainableFuture #GBAnnualReport

Spanish spot power prices are set to hit a near two-year high this week, potentially topping EUR 160/MWh, as plummeting temperatures drive demand higher and wind generation plummets. Prices could reach EUR 150-160/MWh by mid-week, with demand forecast to rise to 30.4-30.8 GW/day, up from 27.7 GW/day last week. Average temperatures are expected to drop by 5.5°C to below 6°C, according to TSO Red Electrica. Wind power output is projected to more than halve, falling to 5.1-5.3 GW/day from 13.3 GW/day last week. Analyst Milton Ceron noted that limited renewable generation and cold temperatures are expected to increase upward pressure on prices. Link to the full article by Belén Belmonte Azabal can be found in the comments section.

Join us for Montel's flow-based market coupling webinar series! The first webinar will take place on 16th January from 14:00 to 15:00 CET where I will introduce flow-based market coupling, explain how flow-based market coupling better integrates the physical grid with the electricity market, what are non-intuitive flows, how are flow-based domains calculated, and explain what flow-based market coupling means for the short-term markets including day-ahead, intraday and balancing markets. Link to the first webinar: https://lnkd.in/dgMNaTGE The second webinar will be held on 23rd January from 14:00 to 15:00 CET which will be moderated by Olav Vilnes where the speakers Ljubov Cherney, Mårten Bergman, and Mikko Peltonen will present their analysis on the results from Nordic flow-based implementation in the past few months. Link to the second webinar: https://lnkd.in/dPJ_5Ujk Montel Montel Analytics #Montelevents #webinarseries #flowbasedmarketcoupling

116€/MWh to 96€/MWh. 💣 French imbalance granularity switched to 15 minutes reducing imbalance price by 20€/MWh. ⚖️ A granularity closer to real time reality is important: imbalance volumes and prices are meant to reflect physical reality and send the appropriate signal to BRPs. 🧠 Intuitively we can expect less impact of extreme prices. Before they had an impact for 30 minutes now only 15. A price spike is only on a quarter of the whole hour. Several green example below. It's particularly true for periods balanced by aFRR spiking to 600€ or more. Extreme prices was activated for 4 seconds but was responsible for 30 minutes price settlement... 4 seconds, 30 minutes of impact. ⚠️ Getting closer to reality has an impact on imbalance volume per period and this can create strong spikes too. Several example in purple below. With the example, good impact win. 👊 From 1st of January, imbalance price average is 96€/MWh. It would have been 116€/MWh with the previous scheme. With a Day Ahead at 87€/MWh in average, I hope you were long. With a k currently at 6.76%, you would have sold at 88€/MWh. Tiny gain but still a gain. Looks like the asymmetry wasn't tied to the imbalance scheme. 👀 💰New scheme, consistent pattern👍 ^CB

UK Day-Ahead Price Hits 2.5-Year High of GBP 600/MWh   UK day-ahead prices soared to a 2.5-year high on Thursday morning for Friday delivery, with Nord Pool settling the 17:00-18:00 slot at GBP 600.01/MWh – the highest since August 2022. The daily average price reached GBP 228.54/MWh, the steepest since December 2022.   National Energy Systems Operator (Neso) projects UK wind output to fall to 2.2 GW on Friday, from a capacity of 30 GW, as renewables face low output amid freezing temperatures and interconnector restrictions. Neso issued a capacity market notice on Wednesday, signaling low system margins. The grid was stabilized through high-cost balancing actions, including sourcing gas-fired power at prices exceeding GBP 5,000/MWh.   For the full news article by Gabriel Power, see the comments section.

Yesterday was pretty nuts in both GB and I-SEM, but while today looks to be a little less critical in GB, the situation isn't much better in I-SEM today than it was yesterday. Where wind generation in GB is forecast to be ~14GW for this evening, forecasts for I-SEM indicate much lower levels of ~200MW, very similar levels to what was seen yesterday. Wholesale power prices are not much lower today than yesterday in I-SEM, with IDA1 and IDA2 trading at peaks of €400/MWh and €440/MWh for this evening, respectively. The corresponding prices in the coupled GB auctions for this evening are €137/MWh and €145/MWh. This indicates that while the interconnectors are scheduled to import at full capacity into I-SEM, there is still a high degree of pressure on domestic Irish power generation as interconnector capacity reaches its limits and demand forecasts climb. Yesterday Irish system level demand rose to almost 7.5GW and a system margin warning was issued in the afternoon. This was the highest demand ever seen in I-SEM. Almost everything that was available to generate was online yesterday during peak periods, including peat and oil assets, some of which were operating entirely in the balancing mechanism. Forecasts for today indicate a similar magnitude of demand as yesterday, although more volumes of imports from GB, potentially as much as ~700MW, would be expected to ease some of the pressure on conventional generating assets.

NESO has issued an Electricity Margin Notice (EMN), indicating that system margins are looking low for the evening. Loss of Load Probability is higher than usual at 29%. With lower temperatures forecast, the expected increase in heating load has resulted in high forecasts for demand. Wind generation forecasts are currently fairly low at ~4GW. As BritNed and ElecLink are offline and Viking Link has a reduced availability of just 700MW, there is a reduced volume of power imports available. As such, utilisation of thermal units is forecast to be very high, giving low derated margin levels of just ~500MW.   Latest intraday trades for the half-hourly product are at almost £600/MWh against day-ahead prices of £300/MWh in the EPEX auction and £345/MWh in Nordpool. All available interconnectors are scheduled to import at maximum availability into GB with the exception of the Moyle and EWIC cables to I-SEM. With similarly low wind and high demand forecasts in Ireland, interconnectors are currently scheduled to export from GB into I-SEM. However, following the IDA2 action in which prices in GB were higher than in I-SEM, some volume has shifted to flow back towards GB, though the net position is still one of export into I-SEM.   Three CCGT assets in GB are currently scheduled to turn down this afternoon, potentially transitioning from the wholesale market to the balancing market where they may be anticipating higher returns

Starting a year 2025 with a record! ⬆️ At least at the Polish Energy Market. ❎ The number of negative and zero priced hours in Poland on the 1st of January was substantial, mainly. due to very healthy levels of #RES generation and muted demand. ⤵️ However, this took its toll on #BalancingMarket creating incentives to ramp down power plants. ❎ In the latter part of the first week of January, the prices were the highest on Saturday (which is another odd thing) due to very low RES generation and without a significant drop in demand, usually seen on the weekends. ❎ Today, the demand exceeded 23 GW, however the #DayAhead prices did not follow due to healthy renewables output. ☀️💨 Would you like to know more? Contact and follow me & Montel Analytics 🔥 #energyanalytics #energytransition #polishenergymarket #rynekenergii