Como você pode ter certeza de que seus cenários são realistas e plausíveis?

A scenario plan is only as good as the people that helped create it. Start first by collectively defining the possible changes to your external environment, ranking their possible impact, and then hone in on a set of focal questions. And do this collectively, inviting as many different and relevant perspectives.

Actually, scenario setting is more of iterative not step by step process, you start by defining the why, set the guiding principles (just to limit imagination and outliers) then define the key variables (key attributes) and the drivers that affect each of them. You can use what it analysis and some brain storming to cover most of the corners, yet, keeping it simple and utilizing the 80/20 rule is fundamental to gain reasonable outcomes. Finally, it is very common to move back and forth within these steps, as mentioned, it is literary not linear play.

Engaging the appropriate individuals who possess the necessary skills, expertise, and attitudes that align with the company's culture and contribute positively to the organization's objectives and growth.

A scenario plan is the result of the data, insights, expertise and pragmatism applied to a specific focal area. I find that testing in a range of severe but plausible scenarios helps identify areas where further resilience needs to be built. In carrying out testing and remediating vulnerabilities you, will be better prepared for any real-life disruptions. This in turn reduces the number of disruptions that could cause harm to the business. As a preceding starter, I consider: Context - What is the key question you are trying to answer? Resources - Who is best placed to help you research and gather insights and data? Time frame - What time period do we have to collate information? Have we considered both Internal / External factors?

Remote work, automation, the gig economy, health and safety measures and changing skills are trends that will shape the future of work in 2030. This new landscape presents both opportunities and challenges, highlighting the need for adaptability and resilience. By embracing these changes and leveraging technology, people and organizations can thrive in the post-pandemic world.

Understanding scenario drivers is crucial. They dictate the direction and key events shaping the future. Prioritize and simplify your driver list to ensure clarity. Research potential trajectories to grasp uncertainties and their future impacts. This analysis helps build believable and relevant scenarios.

To ensure your scenarios are believable, do your homework. Research real-life situations, consult experts, and weave in diverse characters for depth. Keep it smooth and consistent, and always get feedback for fine-tuning. Realness and a few surprises can spice it up!

In times of uncertainty, adaptability, resilience and a forward-thinking mindset will be critical to shaping a successful future of work that benefits individuals, organizations and society as a whole.

Think about the key factors that have influenced your work environment during the pandemic. Consider aspects like the role of technology, changes in regulations affecting your work, and shifts in social values impacting your professional life. Reflect on how health considerations, education, or even climate change have played a role in your work experiences. Personalizing the identification of drivers and uncertainties will bring a more authentic and relevant perspective to your scenario planning process.

Einfache Frage, die ein Szenario beantworten sollte, ist die Frage der Liquiditätssubstanz. Die die Leitfrage lautet dabei wie folgt: was passiert, wenn nichts passiert und wie lange reicht meine Liquidität in diesem Szenario aus?

Using technology and regulation as complementary forces can shape a prosperous and ethical future. Finding the right balance between the two is essential to harness the potential of technology while protecting individuals and society at large.

# 1 Establish Core Assumptions is the key .Start with Identifying the fundamental assumptions that underpin your scenarios, ensuring they are consistent and internally logical. # 2 Group scenarios based on common themes or narrative threads to make them manageable and interconnected based on that create Scenario Clusters # 3 Construct a narrative for each scenario, outlining the sequence of events, key decisions, and potential outcomes thereby develop Scenario Logics

I have always begun with history and ended with desired state. In other words, this is what we have done, and this is what we want it to look like. Then preform modeling and technology to stress the strategy and observe where it lands. Too many times I have been in companies that created scenarios for the express purpose of proving their strategy, manipulating factors and drivers as if to say, "well if we do this we win." Better to model out all potential outcomes since that process is where you will find holes in the tactic and in the strategy. Final note, it you model it 25 times and one of those scenarios matches the desired outcome, you still have a bad concept -IMHO.

As we walk through the history of our setting, we realize the interconnections, motivations and dynamics that bring this fascinating story to life. By delving into the situation, the events, the actors, the challenges, the opportunities and the implications, we gain a deep appreciation for the complexities of our chosen scenario.

One thing I've found helpful is draw from your experience. I once had a leader pull me aside and say, "this is me isn't it." It wasn't but that was a testament that it was a job well done!

Any effective story needs to be human. The more personal and relatable you make the scenario stories the more they will connect with other stakeholders, allowing them to develop the thinking further adding their own lens and insights.

A systems thinking approach can help to tell the story. What are the dependencies and associated factors? When we apply a systems-thinking lens, we are compelled to identify the trends, patterns, structures, and beliefs that lay beneath the visible portion of the iceberg. Systems thinking is a holistic problem-solving strategy that allows us to understand complex systems by learning how their components are interrelated and could contribute to or affect a possible outcome.

The desire is to create compensation programs designed to drive behavior. I learned at a Fortune 50 company how not to do it. My boss skewed the assumptions based on where in the grid the products would be sold, assuming the lower producers would sell all the product and the margin would be higher. This was false and in fact most of that product was sold by the top producers where the margin was thin. At another Fortune 500 company I created a compensation structure whereby all producers earned more by selling another more lucrative product at an affiliate. This cross company compensation structure drove behavior at the company I ran as in order the get a higher payout the producer had to perform at the larger affiliate first.

A few of the ways to test scenarios include: 1) Assess relevance: are the parameters pertinent and do the outcomes make sense and more importantly do they address the critical issues for stakeholders. 2) Solicit Feedback: Seek inputs and reviews from both functional experts and business stakeholders to improve the scenarios and build ownership / engagement within the organization 3) Check for consistency: Each scenario should exhibit coherent internal logic and a consistent storyline. This means that the events, trends, and outcomes within a scenario should logically follow from one another and be free of contradictions. And where this doesn't exist it may require updating the inputs and scenarios.

Were we to rank the importance of all the cited steps here, many would argue this unique point, would rank #1. To borrow from Inferential Statistics - prior to even collating and processing your sample data, one should have already put in place the parameters that would either absolutely reject or fail to disprove the hypothesis (scenario in our analogy) in question. Today, we see this 'philosophy' expressing itself in engineering as Test Driven Development. It is true that scenarios and business cases are often more complex than controlled academic explorations however, it is also true that your ability to continuously abstract and divide your scenarios into "bite-sized" problems, will further improve testability and quality of testing.

By incorporating scenarios into your decision-making process, you can improve strategic planning, increase flexibility, improve risk management, and ultimately make higher quality decisions. Harness the power of scenarios and unlock new possibilities for success in an ever-changing world.

When the COVID-19 pandemic started, the range of uncertainty was enormous. Try using more than one dimension when the range of uncertainty is that large. We used two dimensions to address different aspects of uncertainty: 1. Virus Spread and Public-Health Response (including the effectiveness of physical distancing and the path to vaccine availability) 2. Knock-on Effects and Public-Policy Response (including the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy responses). The 3 x 3 matrix that resulted spanned the range of both likely and remote outcomes. “Safeguarding our lives and our livelihoods” was published on March 23, 2020, laying out those scenarios and providing a common framework that proved useful throughout the pandemic.

Remember to create a safe environment, ask specific questions, actively listen, and appreciate and implement the feedback received. By incorporating these strategies into your interactions, you will be able to continue learning, innovating, and improving in various aspects of your life.

Nothing compares to your experience. Hence, when you base your scenarios on existing facts and maintain consistency within the context of your narrative, it is authentic.

We can employ the PDCA method to ensure pragmatism and adaptability in scenario building. Additionally, tapping into the perceptions and expectations of stakeholders involved in the process, engaging them throughout the construction and validation journey, enhances the robustness of our scenarios. Once planning and execution commence, staying open to adjustments, considering new variables, or even revising the entire plan becomes crucial. In the BANI world we currently inhabit, seeking solid foundations while acknowledging the impossibility of absolute certainty is a golden skill.

Make sure to test assumptions early. Creating a strategy without contact or traction with stakeholders can impact ROI / results negatively. So keep stakeholders in the loop at all times to optimize your spending of cash and / or capital while creating your strategy.