Institutional-grade analytics, data and research platform delivering interactive analytical tools, advanced quantitative models, custom visualization capabilities, and original research to professional traders, retail market participants, and the public sector. Block Scholes is founded, led and backed by financial industry veterans since 2021, including a CEO who has been involved in derivatives structuring and trading for 15+ years and has held senior roles at investment banks, Credit Suisse, and Nomura, and a CTO with 25+ years experience as a developer, architect, and software engineering leader at Locus, Credit Suisse’s pre-trade analytics platform, PwC, E&Y, and Microsoft.
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Block Scholes reposted this
Bitcoin trades 5% lower on the day, pausing its relentless charge towards the key $100K figure at least for now. Derivatives markets have reacted at short tenors only as of yet, with increased put buying causing a strong bearish skew rather than a fall in the implied volatility of short-tenor calls.
More on out collaboration with Bybit -- very relevant to today's daily comment on likely timing of capital rotation away from BTC in the cycle.
With talk of Altcoin Season nearing, we take a deeper look at the patterns in crypto market cycles. Historical data suggests that after Bitcoin (BTC) halving events, dominance rises for roughly 200 days before correcting sharply as capital rotates into Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins. BTC’s dominance has grown steadily above 60%, following a familiar trend observed in previous cycles - could clearer regulations and a crypto-friendly administration accelerate this trend reversal? Explore these insights and more in our Bybit x Block Scholes report - https://lnkd.in/ew5TTDay Read now to stay ahead of the market!
Block Scholes reposted this
Bitcoin dominance is on watch as Ethereum sustains its sharp outperformance. Derivatives markets shift attention to ETH bullishness, strongly inverting its term structure while BTC's remains "just" flat. More in the daily comment 👇
Block Scholes reposted this
On Day One President-elect Trump's promise to rid crypto of the spectre of Gary Gensler appears to come true, as the current SEC chair announces his departure from the role on inauguration day. ETH legged up on the day, along with several other previous SEC targets, and derivatives markets price in a bullish skew towards OTM calls at both short and long tenors. However, the move does not move the cross-pair back beyond election-day levels and ETH Spot ETFs record a 6th consecutive trading day of outflows regardless -- in contrast to BTC's $1B inflows on Thursday.
Block Scholes reposted this
Bitcoin eyes $100K but expects volatility. Longer-dated volatility has finally followed the front-end of the term structure higher after two weeks of inversion -- as we highlighted in yesterday's comment. Short-dated ETH skews remain pinned while longer-dated stuff expresses increasing bullish sentiment, despite a pickup in onchain activity. Trump mulls a "crypto-czar" role for his incoming administration.
Block Scholes reposted this
The term structure of volatility has re-inverted once again – and again in tandem with a rally higher in spot, continuing the spot-volatility correlation that we’ve been repeatedly highlighting in previous daily comments. This time, however, the longer-dated stuff has started to rally too.
Bybit Learn x Block Scholes: Takeaways From the U.S. Election Don't miss it 👇 https://lnkd.in/edT5neaH
The election, a crypto congress, and is it altcoin season yet? A Republican-controlled U.S. Congress could lead to clearer and more favorable regulations for digital assets, fostering innovation and investment in the sector. As Bitcoin's dominance persists, emerging regulatory clarity may catalyze a resurgence in altcoins, particularly for platforms like Ethereum and Solana, which are poised to benefit from a pro-crypto environment.
#Derivatives markets continue to reflect the #bullish momentum of recent weeks. #Spot yields are approaching the positive highs observed last week, signalling robust demand as traders are willing to pay a premium for leveraged long exposure via the futures contracts. #Skew levels and #perpetual contracts funding rates remain firmly positive, reinforcing the optimistic sentiment and indicating that market participants are seeking exposure to upwards price action. Meanwhile, #implied volatility remains within a range-bound pattern, while the term structure remains inverted. Current levels of inversion have yet to surpass the heightened activity seen during the pre-election period but remain closely linked to spot movements. ♻️ Repost to the community 🔎 Subscribe for a deeper dive into our analysis https://lnkd.in/ezDWrRcw 🔔 Follow Block Scholes for regular insight into #digitalassetstrading 🫂 Comment, say Hi, lets connect
Block Scholes reposted this
Derivatives markets retain the post-election bullish trend. BTC Spot ETFs get options. Gold rallies following escalation of tensions in Ukraine.