BMI Country Risk & Industry Analysis

Navigating Climate and Social Risks in 2025 As we look ahead to 2025, significant shifts in climate and nature risk are on the horizon, particularly impacting parts of Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, rising anti-immigration sentiment and persistent social issues are set to shape the global landscape. Join us for this webinar where we'll delve into the data driving these forecasts and explore their implications for key economies and industries Register here: https://ow.ly/rZ5G50V0nO9 #ConntectedThinking #ESG #EconomicGrowth #ClimateChange #Governance

Bolt's entry into Kenya's Qcommerce grocery market signals a promising shift in consumer convenience and e-commerce growth. Read the full article: https://ow.ly/jNcR50UYcHK #ConnectedThinking #ECommerce #Kenya

India's FY2025/26 budget aims for fiscal consolidation amidst a cautious growth outlook. Read the full article: https://ow.ly/Llqv50UYcE0 #ConnectedThinking #India #2025Budget

The geopolitical landscape faces a shake-up with US President Trump's Gaza plan, proposing relocation of 1.8 million residents and US administrative control. Despite the ambitious vision, international criticism mounts, especially from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkiye. Read the full article: https://ow.ly/bLE650UYcxh #ConnectedThinking #PoliticalRisk #Gaza

Join us for our upcoming webinar on February 20, marking the anniversary of the Ukraine war. We'll delve into the recent attempts at peace talks between US President Donald #Trump and Russian President Vladimir #Putin, exploring whether these discussions could be the geopolitical icebreaker needed to ease tensions in #Europe. Despite the initiation of talks, numerous challenges and uncertainties persist, from the exclusion of key stakeholders like Ukraine and European nations to concerns about potential concessions. In this discussion between our Head of Europe, Anwita Basu and our Russia-Ukraine Analyst, Cassia Scott-Jones we will explore the prospects, however tentative, of how the war might end. Register here: https://ow.ly/byQN50UZaPw #ConnectedThinking #Russia #Ukraine #Tensions #Geopolitics

The US Federal Reserve is maintaining a cautious approach, with the Fed funds rate held at 4.50% and a revised forecast for a gradual reduction to 4.00% by year-end. This reflects a strategy of careful observation amid policy uncertainties. Read the full article: https://ow.ly/CrTQ50UTL0z #ConnectedThinking #USEconomy

BMI anticipates a direct conflict between the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda in the short term due to rising military tensions, with potential for a peace deal favoring Rwanda in the medium term. M23 rebels, supported by Rwanda, have captured Goma, escalating tensions and leading to direct confrontations. In the medium term, a lopsided peace deal is likely, allowing Rwanda to maintain influence in eastern DRC, although it could continue occupying border regions. Economically, Rwanda's growth is projected at 6.1% for 2025, while the DRC's growth is revised down to 5.4% due to the conflict's impact on the region. Key View: • Following rising military tensions between the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda, our core scenario is that the two markets will engage in direct conflict in the short term. • In the medium term, our core view is that a lopsided (in Rwanda’s favour) and shaky peace deal will be agreed, but we also note that Rwanda could continue to occupy a substantial portion of Congolese territory. • In this scenario, Rwandan growth would be largely unaffected, but Congolese growth would come in slightly lower. Read the full article here: https://ow.ly/PCyI50UTpiS #ConnectedThinking #SubSaharanAfrica #PoliticalRisk 

The European #AI landscape is set for a pivotal shift, with AI adoption poised to transform 60% of jobs while addressing low productivity and demographic challenges. Despite the continent's readiness, regulatory and security hurdles may impede progress. Read the full article: https://ow.ly/oHlj50UTKUI #ConnectedThinking #ArtificialIntelligence #Europe

Explore our in-depth analysis on Europe's macro key themes for 2025, where elevated geopolitical risks exacerbate existing structural deficiencies. Discover how political uncertainty in Germany and France, coupled with a challenging transatlantic relationship, shapes the region's economic outlook. Despite these challenges, opportunities for EU solidarity emerge, particularly in defense policy. Read more: https://lnkd.in/dQ2CFyN6 #ConnectedThinking #Europe #KeyThemes

Join us as we delve into the implications of the latest trade tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on Canada, Mexico, and China. We'll explore the economic impact on these countries and selected industries, along with the broader market implications. Key topics include: • US Economic Impact on Growth • US Economic Impact on Inflation & the Federal Reserve • Economic Impact on China • Economic Impact on Mexico • Economic Impact on Canada • Impact on Selected Industries • Global Economic Impact (Summary) • Scenarios for Escalation/De-escalation of Trade Tariffs Register here: https://ow.ly/Nn6I50USqvq #ConnectedThinking #Trade #Tariffs #TradeTariffs #Trump