Gatehouse

Listen to our Director, Sir David Manning, discuss the collapse of the Assad regime, prospects for the forthcoming Trump Administration and the future of the rules-based order on the DipTel podcast: https://lnkd.in/d557Tn-M

Jack Lambert continues our Key Questions for 2025 series here. What questions will define your business strategies? #Geostrategy #Geopolitics

The Geopolitics of Debt – How Growing Global Debt Is Interacting With Geopolitical Shifts To Shape Outcomes For Lenders, Borrowers And Businesses The IMF warned in October that total global government debt would exceed $100tn by the end of 2024 and that global debt-to-GDP would hit 100% by 2030, underlining already-growing concerns around debt sustainability and macroeconomic stability. But the threat of unmanageable debt burdens could be further deepened by geopolitical uncertainty, where underlying shifts are both exacerbating the impacts of debt dependency and making remedies harder to construct. Key Takeaways 1. Rising debt is challenging governments in both developed and developing markets at a time when public spending pressures are mounting, especially in the areas of defence, healthcare and energy policy. This is driving awkward trade-offs and threatening political instability, even in markets that have traditionally been considered stable. 2. Greater diversity of lenders and less clear rules of engagement are creating a wider range of debt relationships, including ‘debt for influence/preference’, or shifts from debt to equity investments. This will accelerate already shifting patterns of influence and alignment, as well as complicating debt resolution efforts in cases of distress or default. 3. This greater volatility of both politics and economics will require sensitive policy-making to avoid a global debt crisis. Businesses operating globally must prepare for distorted and intensified debt-linked impacts, including through changes to cost of capital, currency volatility and sovereign non-payment (of both debt interest and contracts). To receive a full copy of our Signal report or to discuss what these policy implications might mean for your organisation, please contact info@gatehouseadvisorypartners.com. #Gatehouse #NeedToKnow #Geopolitics

In our latest instalment, Gatehouse Director Sir David Manning lays out his three key questions for 2025. What questions will define your business strategies? #Geostrategy #Geopolitics

Terrorism – Back on the Agenda for 2025? Recent years have seen a shift away from the focus on terrorism (and counter-terrorism) that defined much of the previous two decades. At the same time, the extremist groups and agendas that topped risk registers for years are still there. Deaths caused by terrorism increased by 22% year-on-year in 2023 and whilst largely concentrated in conflict zones, there are notable exceptions: ISIS-K successfully targeted the Crocus City Hall in Moscow and conducted bombings in Iran, while attempted attacks by the same group were foiled in the US on the eve of the election and in Austria, Germany and France over the summer. Alongside these, a steady stream of individual attackers have targeted civilians both in the US and Europe. With increased polarisation, both within and between states, how concerned should we be about terrorism – the targeting of civilians and civilian assets by non-state actors – making a comeback in 2025? Key Takeaways 1. Whilst terrorism has received less attention in recent years, the threat remains significant and is increasingly likely to be woven into the wider geopolitical fabric, both as a tool and an outcome. 2. The blurring of lines between non-state actors targeting civilian assets and state-sponsored actors (including criminal networks) targeting strategic assets is complicating both the outlook and the response. 3. Technology is unlikely to be a ‘game changer’ for most terrorist actors, but encryption has become the key battleground for counter-terrorism. This leaves tech companies in a vulnerable position if they are seen as enablers of terrorist attacks. To receive a full copy of our Signal report or to discuss what these policy implications might mean for your organisation, please contact info@gatehouseadvisorypartners.com. #Gatehouse #NeedToKnow #Geopolitics #NationalSecurity

In October, we held the second in our 2024 series of Gatehouse Club discussions with a session on Tectonic Shifts. Our expert panel brought together Sir Jeremy Greenstock, Kamissa Camara and Nitin Prasad to look at how businesses can adapt strategy to drive performance in a more transactional geopolitical environment in which long-standing rules are no longer guaranteed to hold. Please get in touch for a copy of the full write-up of the discussion and the recommendations for an assess-adapt-align approach. #geopolitics

Gatehouse Chairman Sir Jeremy Greenstock highlights his key questions for 2025. What questions will define your business strategies? #Geostrategy #Geopolitics #2025

Critical Infrastructure Sabotage – How Are Risks Evolving? Critical infrastructure – digital and physical – faces serious threats in 2025. Technological and geopolitical factors are increasing the proliferation and the capabilities of potential malign actors, which have the potential to cause more frequent and more severe attacks. Non-state and state-aligned actors have been emboldened by greater access to state-level capabilities (e.g. via “Ransomware-as-a-Service”, state sponsorship). New technologies have lowered barriers, enhanced camouflage and amplified potential reach and impact. There is growing scope for highly sophisticated ‘false flag’ operations, with traditional attribution methods struggling against ‘grey-zone’ tactics that blur lines between state, non-state and proxy actions. Key Takeaways 1. Recent attacks on Western infrastructure have highlighted growing systemic vulnerabilities. Technological and geopolitical drivers point towards more frequent and serious threats in 2025 and beyond. 2. All businesses will be indirectly exposed, particularly the potential for cascading effects (e.g. energy grid failures that can trigger effects ranging from data centre outages to manufacturing disruption). Sectors deemed strategically (and symbolically) important may be directly attacked, with technology, defence, health and energy all potential targets. To receive a full copy of our Signal report or to discuss what these policy implications might mean for your organisation, please contact info@gatehouseadvisorypartners.com. #Gatehouse #NeedToKnow

As part of our ongoing Key Questions for 2025 series, Gatehouse Senior Director Vasuki Shastry highlights some of the geopolitical catalysts to monitor in the year ahead. What key questions will define your business strategies? #Geostrategy #Geopolitics #2025 

Location, location, location – the Geopolitics of the Atmosphere and Biosphere COP16, COP29 and the US elections have all unfolded against the backdrop of an escalating climate and nature crisis. The EU’s climate agency reports that global temperatures have breached the 1.5°C threshold the Paris Accord aimed to avoid, with IPCC projections pointing towards a dire trajectory of over 3°C of warming. To date the primary impact of climate change on business has been through regulatory requirements, making it mainly a compliance and reputational issue. However, as physical risks converge with intensifying geopolitical competition, it is rapidly evolving into a core strategic and performance issue. Three key issues will shape this: (1) How will the growing emphasis on nature and biodiversity affect companies' operational viability? (2) How will the increasing availability of granular data on climate and nature impacts influence asset values and economic outcomes? and (3) How will government responses be shaped by competing priorities and a shifting multilateral landscape? Key Takeaways 1. A unified pricing mechanism for biodiversity is unlikely to emerge in the short term, but nature-related risks will present location-specific operational and litigation challenges, which demand a strategic response. 2. Increasingly granular data on location-specific climate and nature risks will reshape asset valuations and access to capital/insurance. Companies should prepare for rising expectations around adaptation and mitigation strategies. 3. Governments face a complex balancing act between growth, climate, biodiversity, energy, and national security. Policy initiatives that are aligned with multiple imperatives (e.g. CBAMs) are most likely to gain traction. To receive a full copy of our Signal report or to discuss what these policy implications might mean for your organisation, please contact info@gatehouseadvisorypartners.com. #Gatehouse #NeedToKnow