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THE ANNUAL FORECAST 2025 REPORT IS NOW AVAILABLE! Our Global Intelligence Team (GIT) has released the Annual Forecast 2025, a comprehensive strategic report designed to help you navigate the global landscape in the year ahead. The report focuses on various strategic risks that may impact your staff, assets and business operations.   We also outline five Global Themes in the report: 🔹Impacts of a Changing Climate 🔹Rising Tides of Conflict and Extremism 🔹Political Polarisation and the Erosion of Trust 🔹Competing Geopolitical Orders 🔹Global Economic Uncertainty The report provides a forecast for each geographic region (as well as cyber-related risks) and includes a timely assessment of the US election's domestic and international implications. It is essential reading for those looking to stay ahead of emerging threats and to navigate the evolving global risk environment. Request your free copy here: https://lnkd.in/ey62ZG92 or email info@sibylline.co.uk.   #RefinedInsight #GlobalIntelligence #RiskIntelligence #StrategicForecast #2025

Understanding Trump's Tariffs on Mexico and Canada | Sibylline Insight EP. 32 In this episode, Gareth W., Head of Global Intelligence, is joined by two analysts from the Americas desk, Claire Brady and Alexander Marciniak, to discuss Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Together, they explain the reactions from both countries, the initial policy responses from both governments, and how the tariffs could impact the economies of the US, Canada, and Mexico. Watch on YouTube: https://lnkd.in/ezGbVNzD Listen on Spotify: https://lnkd.in/e38Q5dpe Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://lnkd.in/epCzhJVM #RefinedInsights #Trump #Tariffs #Trudeau #Podcast #Geopolitics

TURKEY-SYRIA-IRAQ: THREAT OF KURDISH ATTACKS, UNREST WILL PERSIST DESPITE PROSPECTIVE DISARMAMENT Abdullah Öcalan, the jailed leader of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), will likely call for the disarmament of the group on or around 15 February, signalling the end of over 40 years of insurgency. Despite the potential for an agreement, the Turkish government has escalated its anti-Kurdish rhetoric and activity in recent weeks, including through the arrest of pro-Kurdish and opposition mayors, as well as via threats of military intervention in Syria, sustaining heightened animosity among the Kurdish population. As such, there is a realistic possibility that splinter groups within the PKK will reject the deal and Öcalan’s authority, undermining the announcement through unauthorised operations and/or protests. This threat is particularly elevated among hardline elements based in northern Iraq, which will drive Turkish forces to increase operations targeting camps in the Qandil Mountains (Iraq). Kurdish discontent regarding the terms of the agreement between the PKK and the government will likely act as a flashpoint for domestic unrest; we assess that tensions will escalate if the government continues to repress Kurdish political participation in the coming months. These regional updates are part of Sibylline's World Risk Register (WRR) service, for which we are currently offering an extensive trial. If you would like to discuss a free trial, please get in touch with our team by emailing info@sibylline.co.uk. #RefinedInsight #MiddleEast #Turkey #Syria #Iraq

In an era when geopolitical dynamics increasingly determine corporate survival rather than merely influencing the bottom line, security leaders face an unprecedented transformation in their responsibilities. The traditional boundaries of corporate security are rapidly dissolving, requiring security management teams to evolve from tactical executors into strategic advisors capable of navigating complex geopolitical shifts. Drawing from our experience in helping clients adapt and thrive in this increasingly complex and volatile business environment, this article by Justin Crump and Jack N. offers ideas for how security managers can enhance their approach within three key areas—strategic alignment, early warning integration, and cross-domain response capabilities—as firms seek to adapt to the new reality. Continue reading on the ASIS Europe Blog: https://lnkd.in/ejgdJMPP Sibylline Ltd #asiseurope #geopoliticalrisk

The Political Crisis in South Korea | Sibylline Insight EP. 31   In this episode of The Insight Podcast, Aédán Mordecai, Lead Analyst (Asia-Pacific desk) is joined by Jonah Kaplan, Principal Analyst (Asia-Pacific) and Sophie Hanck, Intelligence Analyst (Asia-Pacific desk) to analyse the impeachment and arrest of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol following his short-lived declaration of martial law. They explore the key events that led to his downfall, the legal battles ahead and the broader geopolitical consequences for North Korea, the US and Japan. Tune in for expert analysis of one of the most significant political crises in recent South Korean history. Listen on Spotify: https://lnkd.in/eiwV5f2y Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://lnkd.in/eCUeYVUP Watch on YouTube: https://lnkd.in/eR5AUehh If you enjoyed the episode, please give us a like and subscribe for new episodes! You can also contact us with any questions or feedback: info@sibylline.co.uk #GeopoliticsPodcast #RefinedInsight #Podcast #Risk #RiskIntelligence #southkorea #southkoreapolitics

PAKISTAN: ICC CHAMPIONS TROPHY 2025 RISK ASSESSMENT Pakistan will host the ninth ICC Champions Trophy (a major international cricket tournament held every four years) from 19 February to 9 March. In Pakistan, matches will be held in Lahore, Rawalpindi (both Punjab province) and Karachi (Sindh province). Given bilateral political tensions and India’s unwillingness to travel to Pakistan, all of India’s matches will be played in Dubai (Dubai emirate, UAE). Eight international teams will participate in the tournament, involving 15 matches in total. The final will take place in Lahore unless India qualifies, in which case it will be held in Dubai. While Pakistan has successfully hosted multiple international cricket matches in recent years, this will be the first international cricket tournament held in the country since 1996. It also marks the first major international sporting tournament in Pakistan since the militant attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore in 2009. Amid an unstable security environment driven by militant activity in restive provinces, the event will serve as a litmus test for Pakistan’s security measures and its ability to host large international events. These regional updates are part of Sibylline's World Risk Register service, which we are currently offering an extensive trial. If you would like to discuss a free trial, please get in touch with our team by emailing info@sibylline.co.uk. Subscribe to our mailing list to get the latest events and updates from Sibylline: https://lnkd.in/gpVdNBF #RefinedInsight #ICC #ICCChampionsTrophy #Cricket #Pakistan

EXPLORE THE TRENDS SHAPING THE CYBER LANDSCAPE IN 2025 Our Global Intelligence Team (GIT) has released the Annual Forecast 2025, a comprehensive strategic report designed to help you navigate the global landscape in the year ahead. Kailyn Johnson, Lead Analyst (Cyber desk), outlines three strategic risks to monitor in the coming year: 🔹 Technology being Used and Abused in Cyber Operations 🔹 Cyber Operations Facilitating Geopolitical Strategic Objectives 🔹 The Increasing Accessibility of Malicious Tools on the Dark Web Widening the Threat Landscape From global political shifts to cyber-related risks, our comprehensive Annual Forecast delivers strategic insights and data-backed analysis to help you navigate uncertainty and identify opportunities worldwide. The report also outlines five key global themes for the coming year and provides a practical assessment of the US election's domestic and international implications. This strategic analysis is essential for organisations looking to stay ahead of emerging risks. Download your free copy at https://lnkd.in/ey62ZG92 or email info@sibylline.co.uk. #RefinedInsight #AnnualForecast2025 #RiskIntelligence #Cyber #DarkWeb #CyberSecurity

BRIEFING: GERMAN FEDERAL ELECTION - FORECAST, IMPLICATIONS AND SECURITY RISKS Germany will hold an early federal election on 23 February. The election was triggered by the collapse of the so-called ‘traffic light’ coalition comprised of the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens and the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP). The election will take place against a backdrop of a two-year economic contraction and record levels of support for the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. The centre-right Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party (CDU/CSU) will highly likely win the election and lead the next government. A grand coalition alongside the SPD is likely, though other options are possible depending on the result. In our Sibylline Special Report, we will assess the prospects of election interference, upcoming changes to the business environment, the labour market, security and defence as well as the outlook on far-left activism. Register here: https://lnkd.in/eHsAP2sv When registering for the event, please be aware that we do not accept personal email addresses. When registering, please use a corporate email address. If you are unable to register with a corporate email address, please email events@sibylline.co.uk. #RefinedInsight #Germany #GermanyElections #SecurityRisks

UP & OUT: A PLAYBOOK FOR ELEVATING INTELLIGENCE TEAMS Private sector intelligence teams could be on the brink of a major expansion in their roles. Moving beyond traditional security functions, analysts are realising their potential to offer insights into geopolitical risks that influence corporate strategy decisions at the most senior levels. But the journey to gaining this broader influence - what we call getting “Up and Out” - isn’t a straightforward one. 🔹 At groups like OSAC, ASIS, AIRIP, and ISMA, the debate is shifting towards how intelligence teams can guide strategic approaches to managing geopolitical risk. 🔹 Intelligence teams are among the most qualified to provide perspectives on dynamic and multi-faceted risks, with many analysts having a professional grounding in the subject. 🔹 The impacts of geopolitical volatility for firms are generally more wide-ranging—a firm’s most important exposures may not lie in security but be felt elsewhere. 🔹 Intelligence teams now have a receptive audience at senior levels and gateways to engaging other business units dealing with geopolitical uncertainty. 🔹 This question is gaining mainstream focus as the corporate impacts of geopolitical volatility become more apparent and fundamental to business strategy. 🔹 This exposes firms to systemic risks and cascading impacts, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to illustrate. 🔹 CSOs need to tailor internal engagement approaches to different stakeholders and overcome the barriers to enterprise-wide communication. 🔹 The lack of a systemic approach to overcoming barriers to communication on both sides causes frustration, with some pointing to cooperation in areas like cyber resilience as a model. 🔹 The best intelligence teams support both short- and long-term decision-making with geopolitical insights, collaborate with key functions, and integrate their outputs into executive and board-level decision-making processes. We’re passionate about helping CSOs and their intelligence teams bridge the gap. Read the article here: https://lnkd.in/eVhWqk4d #RefinedInsight #CSO #Security #GeopoliticalInsights #GeopoliticalRisks #UpandOut

What Just Happened? Violence in Catatumbo, Colombia In this episode, Ignacio A. speaks with Latin America Intelligence Analyst Alexander Marciniak about the escalating conflict in Colombia’s Catatumbo region (Norte de Santander department). Alex explains the significance of Catatumbo as a major coca-producing region and a hotspot for drug smuggling across the Venezuela-Colombia border. He also describes how the National Liberation Army (ELN) has intensified attacks against rival guerrilla factions, local leaders and demobilised guerrillas, displacing 47,000 people and prompting the Colombian government to declare a state of emergency and deploy additional military forces. If you enjoyed the episode, please leave a review and subscribe! Listen on Spotify: https://lnkd.in/eCYpZRzr Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://lnkd.in/eiRZUnfn Please note that this episode was recorded on 28 January 2025. #Colombia #Geopolitics #RefinedInsight #Podcast