Macro Hive

Check out Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects! Read full list here: https://lnkd.in/eqDXHzJn

Check out Richard Jones's latest G10 FX Weekly: NFP Uncertainty Looms Over Dollar and US Rates Summary -Since peaking above 108 (intra-day) on 22 November, the US dollar Index (DXY) moved below 106 one week later and now trades just above 106, about 1.75% lower than that recent peak. -Moves in US yields have been similar, with the 2-year yield now about 25bp off its peak two weeks ago and the 10-year over 30bp lower than in mid-November. -High uncertainty surrounds tomorrow’s US nonfarm payrolls (NFP), leaving the rates and FX outlook unclear. Market Implications -We stand aside and await clearer signals in the FX and US rates spaces post-NFP. Read full article here: https://lnkd.in/eGUVFmYK

Check out Dominique Dwor-Frecaut's latest article - Opportunistic Disinflation Redux? Summary -Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signalled he intends to keep inflation within its current range. -He likely intends to implement opportunistic disinflation, a Fed strategy from the 1990s that relies on disinflationary shocks to lower inflation. -But today’s macro backdrop is less favourable compared with the 1990s, suggesting the desired disinflationary shocks may not materialize. Market Implications -I still expect no cuts in 2025 against markets pricing about three. -I still expect a December cut, in line with markets. Read full article here: https://lnkd.in/eKyr_4sa

Yesterday, Macro Hive and LMAX Group launched their new high-frequency data webinar series! Using historic millisecond order book data from LMAX Group, Macro Hive provides analysis and actionable insights for investors around key macro events. Watch the inaugural webinar here: https://bit.ly/49s7pRa

Ahead of the upcoming NFP, please join Macro Hive and LMAX Group as they launch their new high-frequency data webinar series! Using historic millisecond order book data from LMAX Group, Macro Hive will provide analysis and actionable insights for investors around key macro events. The inaugural live-stream webinar and Q&A series takes place tomorrow, 3 December, at 3:00pm GMT. Register for the webinar here: https://bit.ly/3ZvN7CW

Check out our latest Key Events: Disruption Ahead! G10 In the US, we have a data-light week ahead: -S&P PMIs – Friday. The week’s most important release will be the S&P PMIs. Like most soft data, they have decoupled from the hard data so tell us little about the economy. For a trading perspective on the PMIs, see our Event Monitor. In the Eurozone and UK, the main events will be: -UK October CPI – Wednesday. Consensus expects a rise to +2.2% YoY in headline, with a drop to +3.1% in core and to +4.8% in services. The BoE agrees on headline but expects services at +4.9%. Our bottom-up calculation sees upside risk to headline, core in line, and services at +4.7%. The month sees large non-core services re-pricings that could knock the number about, so we follow the detail. Market BoE pricing is too hawkish, and a miss vs BoE expectations could drive a move there. -EZ October CPI (final) – Tuesday. The details of the release will be important given the outturn beat expectation in the preliminary release. -UK October retail sales – Friday. The market expects a paring of the upside surprise in September. -Preliminary November PMIs – Friday. We will assess the detail but put limited weight on the survey outturns themselves given how much they have missed the hard data in recent years. Read full article here: https://lnkd.in/erEVDspM

The Week Ahead: Disruption Ahead! Welcome to The Week Ahead! In this episode, Andrew Simon and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut discuss Powell's speech, Trump's policies, Dominique's latest Fed view, and more! Watch full episode here: https://lnkd.in/eDUaxzXv

In his latest podcast, Bilal Hafeez talks to Alberto Gallo, CFA about Trump impact, geopolitics and favourite markets! Listen here: 🐝The Hive: https://lnkd.in/eptEXTwR 🎧Apple: https://lnkd.in/eRKny5w3 📽YouTube: https://lnkd.in/exG-PZ-j

Check out our latest Weekly Futures Momentum Model: Models Post Solid Gain as FX Leads, Equities Lag Summary -Momentum models were up +0.7% over the past week, with FX models gaining +1.4% WoW, rates models up 0.3% and equity models down -0.5% WoW. -Momentum models are up in aggregate over a three-month time frame, with FX and equity models the best performing (+0.3%). Market Implications -Momentum models are bullish USD across the FX majors – we expect slightly more USD upside this month but think it may be time to temper USD bullishness. Read full article here: https://lnkd.in/eJnxpgeG

Check out Richard Jones's latest G10 FX Weekly: Time to Fade UK Short-End Yields Summary -The UK 2-year yield hovers near last week’s six-month high. -The Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Review (MPR), following last week’s 25bps cut, broadly aligned with our expectations, without overly hawkish messaging. -However, hawkish Fed pricing is feeding into BoE pricing, which challenges fading elevated UK short-end yields. Market Implications -Despite the risks, we like cautiously fading elevated UK short-end yields, by scaling into a long position. -Currently, the market only prices two 25bps cuts over the next year, which we think underestimates what the BoE will deliver, especially given the November MPR Bank Rate projections. Read full article here: https://lnkd.in/eFaVZ7gG