First Base 2025 Fantasy Rankings

After suffering a wOBA decline for two straight seasons, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reminded us why he was an uber prospect not too long ago. His wOBA juuuuust missed rebounding back to the .400 level, as his BABIP skyrocketed to a career best, while his strikeout rate and SwStk% improved to bests as well. He still hasn’t shown the home run power he did during his 2021 coming out party, but he’ll be just 26 during this upcoming season, so I would be shocked if he failed to post another 20% HR/FB rate again.

Bryce Harper’s highest PA total since 2019 boosted his counting stats, so the risk/reward at his expected cost after a healthy season might not be as lucrative as in years past. The skills remain strong, though his maxEV did finish at its lowest since 2016, while his Barrel% ended up his lowest since 2017. Perhaps he won’t be returning to the mid-20% HR/FB rate range, but he won’t need to in order to maintain his spot among the top of the position. He does need to stay relatively healthy though!

This wasn’t quite a vintage Freddie Freeman season, as his wOBA fell to its lowest since 2015, mostly due to a BABIP that dropped to its lowest since 2012. That’s a long time ago! Freeman has been a BABIP king for his entire career thanks to a pristine batted ball profile heavy on line drives and light on pop-ups. This year, his LD% declined to its lowest since…ever, though his IFFB% was normal. Is age harming his line drive stroke or was this just a one-season fluke? It’s anyone’s guess, but he’s still as close to a lock for all-category production in a loaded lineup.

We all wondered how Matt Olson would follow up his dream 2023 season, but I’m not sure anyone expected him to crash right back down to essentially his 2022 level, as if 2023 literally never happened. All of his Statcast power metrics took a nosedive, fueling a collapse of his HR/FB rate to a career low. That’s pretty shocking, as his Statcast metrics were still excellent, just not as excellent as in 2023. Everything else here looks normal, so you gotta figure at least some sort of rebound.

Pete Alonso’s value may change depending on which team he signs with, as he’s currently a free agent. He’s posted a higher HR/FB rate on the road than at home, so believe it or not, a more power friendly ballpark could actually boost his value. Alonso is coming off the lowest wOBA, ISO, and HR/FB rate of his career, so there’s a chance that a good landing spot could give him some profit potential. Essentially all his underlying metrics, whether standard or Statcast, suggest he’s the same hitter he’s always been, so I would expect better production next year, regardless of whose uniform he’s wearing.

I actually can’t believe that Christian Walker will already be entering his age 34 season, as he still feels like a younger guy making good on his former prospect status. Injury hampered his counting stats, but he’s been an extremely similar hitter for the last three seasons, though his strikeout rate did jump to its highest since 2019. Since it didn’t come with an increased SwStk%, I would expect a rebound there. It turned out that his 11 steal effort in 2023 was a fluke, which should surprise no one, which makes him a relatively boring power only contributor, but one who appears pretty safe.

I think I remain obsessed with Vinnie Pasquantino, even though he hasn’t exactly performed at the level I’ve considered his upside. Coming off shoulder surgery heading into 2024, I wasn’t gung-ho here, as I worried the injury could sap his power. It didn’t, but perhaps it ensured that his power remained stagnant and failed to grow. I love the skill set though. He combines elite contact ability with a fly-ball tendency, plus he has the HardHit% and maxEV to suggest there’s significantly more power in his bat than the results have suggested. I know you’re going to laugh at me, but the distribution of his skills does remind me of someone you may have heard of — Albert Pujols.

Injury limited Triston Casas to less than half a season, but he maintained the majority of his skills established during his first full season in 2023. He even upped his HR/FB rate and his Statcast metrics are strong enough to believe it wasn’t a total fluke. The one red flag here is a spike in his strikeout rate, but he’s never had such contact issues anywhere previously, so I’ll chalk it up to a small sample fluke.

Josh Naylor’s power was at its best ever during the first half, and then it took a vacation the rest of the way, as it returned to the levels we originally forecasted. His full season Statcast metrics do not support the increased home run power, as his maxEV was actually at its lowest since a tiny 2020 sample, while his Barrel% was right in line with the previous two seasons. If he does turn back into his pre-2024 version early on, he might fall back into a strong side platoon role, hampering his counting stats.

Jake Burger couldn’t repeat the power output he enjoyed during his breakout 2023, but his Statcast metrics remained excellent, solidifying that power as legit. His SwStk% improved dramatically, as his strikeout rates has improved for several seasons straight now. Yet, he’s batted exactly .250 in each of the last three years! You know what you’re getting here — power and replacement level or a bit better on the RBI and runs scored totals, depending on his supporting lineup cast.

I’m always hesitant to rank a hitter so reliant on batting average where he belongs based on the forecast. There’s just so little margin for error when you sport a career 3.8% HR/FB rate. And sort of poor BABIP luck and you’re going to find yourself swimming in the free agent pool. Luis Arraez did steal a career high nine bases in 2024, which matched his combined total from the past three seasons. Does he do it again? It’ll certainly add a couple bucks to his value if he could. Otherwise, he’s just a batting average ans slightly above average runs scored guy, meaning you’ll need your power from somewhere else if he’s your starting first baseman.

Paul Goldschmidt is coming off the worst offensive season of his career, but a 20/10 season meant he was still delivering value for his fantasy owners, albeit probably less than his owners paid. The free agent could see his ranking here change dramatically depending on where he signs and whether he’ll even remain an everyday guy. The skills still remain pretty good, though his strikeout rate trend is alarming, as it has risen for four straight years since the short 2020 season. At age 37, I don’t know how much of a rebound, if any, we can expect.

We all keep waiting for Alec Bohm to experience a power spike, right?! His ISO did inch up to another career best, but his HR/FB rate actually fell back into single digits. It’s bizarre, because his HardHit% and maxEV are well above the league average and suggest significantly better power output. However, he simply doesn’t barrel the ball frequently enough, but that could change, of course. The other skills all remain stable and are solid, so it just comes down to betting on a power surge coming at some point.

Injury limited Christian Encarnacion-Strand to just 123 PAs and he was awful before his season was cut short. The upside remains, though. He has posted a 20%+ HR/FB rate at every professional stop, and a consistently high BABIP should help offset some of the sting of his potentially high strikeout rate. That should result in an acceptable batting average, rather than a killer mark. The potential is there for him to earn significantly more value than this rank, but it’s best to stay cautiously optimistic.

It would be nice if Yandy Díaz’s power remained consistent. Instead, his HR/FB rate has yo-yo’d up and down, despite strong Statcast metrics. There’s no doubt that he hits the ball hard — he ranked 19th in HardHit% and sixth in maxEV among qualified hitters in 2024. He just hits a relatively low rate of fly balls, and when he does, they sometimes just haven’t gone out at the same rate as in other seasons. There’s no reason to think he couldn’t reach the 20-homer plateau again.

Yeah, you’re probably playing Yainer Diaz at catcher, especially given the price you’ll end up paying for him. However, his combination of batting average and power make him valuable even as a first baseman. He couldn’t sustain his 2023 power output, as his ISO and HR/FB rate both plunged. It was entirely due to a drop in Barrel%, as both his HardHit% and maxEV were actually higher. That’s a good sign that his power will at least partially rebound.

Yes, it’s odd that the two catcher-eligible names on these rankings are back-to-back, but that’s just how the cookie crumbled. Salvador Perez refuses to experience any sort of age-related decline, as his strikeout rate actually finished at its best since 2017, while his Barrel% was third highest of his career. Even his walk rate notched a new high! Everything looks good here, but do remember that he’ll be 35 for most of the 2025 season.

Just as his xwOBA screamed, Cody Bellinger’s performance collapsed in 2024, as his BABIP regressed to his career average and his HR/FB rate couldn’t stay in double digits paired with mediocre Statcast metrics. On the positive side, he’ll still on the right side of 30, continues to steal bases, and sustained his strikeout rate improvement, exactly matching his 2023 mark, which was a career best. This is still a solid all-around fantasy profile and obviously there’s upside for better.

Do you remember that Andrew Vaughn was last ranked as our 13th best prospect?! He’s been ho hum since his 2021 debut, posting stable skills, with limited improvements. It’s actually pretty crazy how consistent he has been, which would be great if he was consistently a high performer. There is a sliver of hope though — his HardHit% and maxEV are both strong, and his Barrel% has risen for two straight years, inching closer to the only double digit mark he posted during his rookie season. One of these years we’ll get a major breakout, and I’d love to speculate cheaply.

Outside of his best season in 2022, Nathaniel Lowe has essentially been replacement level in standard 12-team leagues. But like many others on the list, the HardHit% and maxEV are there for better power output. For whatever reason, his Barrel% has slid off a cliff the pst two seasons. He does still take a walk and consistently posts high BABIP marks so at least his batting average should be neutral at worst. It would be nice if his power returned though.

Once again, Statcast’s xwOBA called Spencer Steer’s 2024 decline, as he simply couldn’t maintain an inflated BABIP. It fueled a plunge in batting average, which really took a bite out of his value. However, he did his best to offset some of the decline by stealing 10 more bases, and since he stole those 25 bases at a high success rate, perhaps he could come closer to a repeat than the projections assume. On the other hand, I’m not too excited about his power given mediocre maxEV and Barrel% marks.

Michael Toglia, where’d you come from?! He was ranked just 34th among Rockies prospects, but found himself a regular for much of the year and delivered lots of power and even some surprise steals. He wasn’t even just a product of Coors Field, as his wOBA splits were nearly identical. Heck, he even posted a significantly higher HR/FB rate on the road! His xwOBA is also dramatically higher than his actual wOBA, so does he have additional upside? I have no faith that the Rockies will stick with a young player all season long, but it’s hard to ignore a 17.2% Barrel%, the sixth highest mark among those with at least 450 PAs.

With the Orioles overflowing with exciting youngsters, it’s hard to feel comfortable rostering Ryan Mountcastle. His power collapsed this year as his Barrel% declined, but his HardHit% and maxEV remained strong. The reasonable strikeout rate and .300+ BABIP means he’s been a batting average contributor the last two seasons. If his power stroke returns, his playing time should be more secure…but will it?

I totally forgot that Isaac Paredes will only be 26 years old for this upcoming season, which means he still has time to improve the weaker parts of his offensive profile. He continued to pull a high rate of his fly balls, which helped him post mid-teen HR/FB rates in 2022 and 2023, despite weak Statcast metrics. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen in 2024, as his HR/FB rate plunged into single digits. That’s the risk of relying on such a pull-heavy approach without true raw power. The good news is he’s got excellent plate discipline metrics and a fly ball tendency, so there’s a strong foundation of skills here.

Josh Bell is coming off a typical season and now enters free agency which could affect his ranking. After three straight seasons over a 20% HR/FB rate, he’s been down in the low-to-mid double digit range, though his Statcast metrics aren’t significantly worse. Essentially the definition of replacement level and stopgap solution when injury strikes.

It wasn’t obvious, but Jeimer Candelario’s xwOBA just hit a career low. Many of his underlying skills are trending in the wrong direction, and now he’ll have to contend with Christian Encarnacion-Strand again for first base/DH at-bats. However, his fly ball tendency and conistently respectable strikeout rate, along with a handful of steals, does give him fantasy upside.

After missing all of the 2023 season to injury, Rhys Hoskins endured the worst offensive season of his career in 2024. Although his HR/FB rate was in line with history, both his ISO and walk rate fell to career lows, while his strikeout rate spiked to a career worst. That’s not a great combination! The good news is he maintained a single digit SwStk%, so the strikeout rate surge appears to be a bit of a fluke. That said, he has never contributed in batting average and won’t steal more than a couple of bases. So it’s homers and RBI you’re paying for here.

Just once has Brandon Lowe reached even 450 PAs. Amazingly, he recorded an almost identical season between 2023 and 2024, from both a counting stat and wOBA perspective. The Statcast power metrics remain pretty good here, though he hasn’t posted a 20%+ HR/FB rate since 2021. Aside from injury risk, there’s always the chance he falls into a strong side platoon and loses PAs against southpaws.

The batting average is really boosting Jose Miranda’s ranking, as he combines above average BABIP and strikeout rate marks. The real issue here has been his lack of power. His HR/FB rate has been in freefall and his Barrel% doesn’t provide much glimmer of hope. However, both his HardHit% and maxEV are above average, suggesting at least a league average and double digit HR/FB rate. Plus, he showed breakout power back in 2021 at both Double-A and Triple-A, providing hope he could recapture that at some point.

Alec Burleson enjoyed a nice little breakout fantasy season, just missing that elusive 20/10 club. I think the power output will be easy to repeat, with upside for some more if he could boost his Barrel%. However, I don’t see him reaching double digit steals, as he ranked in the bottom 100 in the league in Sprint Speed. I love the strikeout rate though, which should help his counting stats as he’s able to put lots of balls into play.

I expected better Statcast power metrics from Michael Busch, who posted a sub-110 MPH maxEV and HardHit% just below 40%. He did get the most of those marks though with a double digit Barrel%, driving a mid-teen HR/FB rate. I think it’ll be hard for him to repeat his above average BABIP given a fly ball tendency and double digit IFFB%, which could lead to a pretty weak batting average.

I was actually quite excited to see how Nolan Schanuel would perform this year given his unique profile. What I didn’t expect is incredibly weak Statcast power metrics pairing with a 10.1% HR/FB rate! It’s hard to imagine that happening again, though it would be silly to think a 23-year-old couldn’t improve those power metrics to actually justify a double digit HR/FB rate. His 10 steals were also a surprise given his 433rd ranking in Sprint Speed. I like the plate discipline and think he’s got BABIP upside given a strong batted ball profile, but I’m skeptical of his power and speed, making him another wait-and-see.

You gotta love Tyler Soderstrom’s home run potential, but a weak supporting cast capping his RBI and runs scored totals, and a weak batting average with no speed, really hampers his fantasy value. It’s too bad he lost his catcher eligibility, as he could have been a near Cal Raleigh clone.

If Spencer Torkelson’s face doesn’t accompany the definition of enigma in the dictionary, then I’ll make a request to get it added. Just when we thought he had turned the corner in June of 2023, en route to 31 homers on the season, he reverts right back to his 2022 performance and his power disappears. There’s nothing good happening in the Statcast metrics, all of which were the worst of his short career. At this point, you can only close your eyes and cross your fingers, hoping he rediscovers the swing that made him an elite college hitter and then one of the top prospects in the game.

Pavin Smith…with power? It was only a 158 PA sample, but his HardHit% increased, his maxEV reached the highest of his career, and his Barrel% skyrocketed. All those metrics fueled a career best 22% HR/FB rate and .277 ISO. We’ve seen this story before, where a hitter comes out of nowhere to show big power, and then turns into a pumpkin the following season. But Smith doesn’t own some pretty good skills, including double digit walk rates, sub-20% strikeout rates, and significantly better BABIP marks during his last two Triple-A stints. A specuative buy, if the Diamondbacks don’t resign Walker.

In parts of three seasons, Juan Yepez has accumulated about one full season’s worth of PAs and has essentially posted replacement level totals. He’s posted an odd combination of Statcast power metrics, including mediocre HardHit% and Barrel% marks, but strong maxEVs. That’s weird and perhaps tells the story of a hitter who has excellent raw power, but simply can’t get to it often, for whatever reason. Perhaps it provides some upside, but he’ll need to hit a higher rate of fly balls to even matter.

Man has Jake Cronenworth’s skills been all over the place. Both his FB% and HR/FB rate have been up and down, but somehow he’s still remained relatively consistent on the home run front, outside of his down 2023. Most of his value is driven by his playing time and slot in the middle of the Padres order. As a result, I would probably opt to roster someone younger with more upside, even if his projections value him higher.

Gosh, what a weird season for Ryan O’Hearn, who followed up his mini 2023 breakout by recording a career high PAs and only suffering slight wOBA regression. The oddity stems from a decline in power, paired with an incredible improvement in both SwStk% and strikeout rate. Some players have to choose between contact and power, so it does make sense to see one improve, while the other falls. But then you also see a career high FB%, which would only make sense with increased power, and you lose your understanding of what exactly happened. Like Mountcastle, his playing time outlook is murky, but he’s been good enough recently to be deserving of starting most games.

If you’re hoping to roster a hitter who qualifies at every non-catcher position, then Dylan Moore is your man! It’s anyone’s guess at this point if he’ll amass 400+ PAs again after notching a new career high in 2024. But his speed makes him worth monitoring, along with being a non-zero in home runs. The downside, of course, is the ugly batting average, as he strikes out often and frequently posts well below average BABIP marks.

Spencer Horwitz posted solid results in his first extended action. With just middling power and limited speed, his strong plate discipline is his best asset. As such, he should deliver a batting average that’s neutral at worst, along with reasonable counting stats while hitting in the middle of the Blue Jays order.