Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – December 2nd, 2024

Justin Mason: Chat will begin shortly. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Shohei The Money: Been itching for some live Baseball Content! Couple of Dynasty Questions for you

Justin Mason: We are back! Send them to me! I don’t have a lot of questions queued up.

Lord Thunder: Is there still any chance of CJ Abrams being an impact SS?

Justin Mason: He is already. He went 20/30 last season and was a bit unlucky in the batting average department. The lineup around him should get better as well as the Nats continue their rebuild.

seth: any chance we can add the out-year ZIPS projections (2026, 2027) as an option in the auction calculator?

Justin Mason: I can definitely ask. I think that would be fantastic.

Honkus Wagner: is there one batter and one pitcher you’re targeting next year for a bounce back/break out that may be flying under the radar early in the off season?

Justin Mason: Still working through my projections, but I have targeted Semien and Eflin as potential guys that are too low in the ADP and could have a nice bounceback.

Guest: Where are you on Holliday in a keeper? He’s certainly in the “buy low” cost range, but I find myself doubting his actual fantasy juice (ok power, may not run much, liability against lefties). Sure he’ll almost certainly get better, but I feel that the breakout will be to Ok and not superstar

Justin Mason: He is still super young, so I am not ready to say that he has all those problems, but I also don’t know if he will be the superstar that we thought he could be. I think at worst he is a fantastic accumulator and there is still a high ceiling.

A.: Better final keeper Robbie Ray (rd 16) or Liam Hendrix (rd 16). 6×6 w/holds. Other keepers are Jarren Duran (rd6), Cole Ragans (Rd 10), Bryan Woo (rd 14). Thank you.

Justin Mason: If you are already keeping Woo and Ragans, I probably lean Hendriks here.

Carson: I play in a 12 team 40 man roster dynasty league with 5 minor league slots. Who are some (relatively) cheaper accumulator hitters (outside 300 ADP) that are good targets for 2025 and beyond?

Justin Mason: Candelario, Spencer Horwitz, Hunter Goodman (because of the catcher eligibility), David Hamilton.

Carson: Who is someone you can target in a FYPD outside of the top 20 that you think has a shorter path to contributing in the major leagues?

Justin Mason: To be quite honest, I haven’t dug enough into the FYPD players for this season. Definitely ask Eric this one

Pitching: dynasty, unlimited keepers, 260 budget. 6×6 (losses a cat). Would you trade two FYPD 2nd rounders for Jared Jones? One 2nd for Gil?

Justin Mason: I would either or both of those deals

Slowjamz: Thoughts on O’Neil Cruz this year? Worth a keeper slot at $20ish?

Justin Mason: how big is the league and what is the format?

Jake: Rooker or Ozuna in 2025? Same keeper price.

Justin Mason: Ozuna

Guest: you are a journeyman union mason.  Should I cement my 12 team OttoNeu H2H team to a $10 Jackson Holiday or a $18 Skenes?  Team has solid mortar Dynasty foundation.

Justin Mason: Skenes

Justin Mason: Also, point awarded

Colton: Any advice for someone doing an NFBC format for the first time? Thinking about joining a couple gladiators but I’ve always been in a daily points league and would love a bit of advice on how to structure for a categories a bit better, thanks! And glad the chats are back!

Justin Mason: Ok, stay away from riskier picks especially in the gladiator formats. There is no bench so taking a guy that may or will miss a long period of time because of injury or starting in the minors means you will be taking a lot of zeros.

Justin Mason: Pitching also goes faster than you would expect. Especially relief pitching. Make sure you lock down a closer early

Sensei: In a keep 4 H2H cats (with OPS instead of AVG and QS instead of W), all cost being equal and keep forever option, I’m going into next year with Corbin Carroll, Alonso and Seager. Wrestling with #4, waffling between two pitchers with notable concerns – Eury or Strider. I half jokingly say all pitchers die but having two that are coming back from the dead, which is the better option?

Justin Mason: I think Strider is the better option

Shohei The Money: Been itching for some live baseball talk! Couple of dynasty questions for you. Categories are R, HR, RBI, SB, K, AVG, OPS and W, L, SV, K, ERA, WHIP
1.      I recently traded Freddie Freeman for Bryce Miller. I am in dire need of arms, but I am frequently a top 3 team in our league who depends on offense. This locks me into Vinnie P as my long term 1b now. Do you think that is a fair trade off given FF is 35 (I know he was battling a lot last year) but he isn’t getting any younger. Miller seems like an ascending arm. What’s your thoughts on VP.

2.      My final keeper spot is between Maysn Winn and Buxton. Seager is my starting SS. Tucker, Yordan, Trout, Seiya, Doyle (and Jazz) are my other OF options. Smarter to keep Winn or bank on Bux and his always teasing upside.

Thanks for doing this Justin!

Justin Mason:

1. I don’t hate this deal. I do feel like you should have gotten another piece thrown in but I like Miller as an up and coming piece and Freeman’s age means he won’t be around for a lot longer.
2. I go Winn. I know Buxton is a tantalizing option, but at this point, I don’t know that he even has the ceiling he once did.

Montreal Rays?: Any idea what the Rays rotation will look like in 2025?  Where does Rasmussen fit?

Justin Mason: Right now, I think the rotation is Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot, Jeffrey Springs, Shane Baz and Zack Littell with Shane McClanahan coming back early in the season. I think Drew Rasmussen is the odd man out unless there is a trade.

Kate: What would you expect from Masyn Winn in terms of growth in power and speed this year?  It felt like he stopped running because of some minor injuries, do we expect that to tick back up again?  Is there power growth coming this year?  It seemed like he was able to get off his A swing more as the year went on.

Justin Mason: I dont see a ton of growth in power to be honest. I think his value comes in average and stolen bases. I could see a decent boost in average and if the Cardinals let him run. He is most likely an accumulator that plays a good SS.

Kate: Do you think Andy Pages is playing essentially everyday come opening day?  Or do the Dodgers add enough bats that he’s sent down / stuck in a part-time role?

Justin Mason: I think he will have the opportunity to, but will nee to produce because I would be surprised if the Dodgers don’t bring back Teoscar Hernandez. Pages and James Outman are two of the few players with options, so which ever doesn’t hit, will likely go to the minors.

Dodgers Blue: More enticing young pitching staff, Detroit Tigers or Minnesota Twins?

Justin Mason: Both are really enticing, but Jobe makes the Tigers a bit more.

Kate: Is the landing spot as important for Bregman as most people seem to think it is?  Crawford boxes yada yada yada, but his home / road splits have always been fine.

Justin Mason: I think landing spot is somewhat important, but for me as long is he is in a good lineup, I am not overly worried unless he is in a terrible park for power.

seth: would you keep any/all of Gerrit Cole ($15), Imanaga ($16), Bryce Miller ($19), or Ober ($18)? 16 team league, $260 auction budget

Justin Mason: I’d want to keep all if I could, but if you can’t I think Miller is the first to go because he is a bit more expensive.

Kate: My initial reaction to Brendan Rodgers getting non-tendered was that was the end of his usefulness (leaving Coors), however the underlying hard hit data seems good enough that I’m wondering if a better hitting org could coax a breakout out of him (by lifting and pulling more).  Does he get a shot at enough PT wherever he lands to see if that’s a possibility?

Justin Mason: I think his relevance is likely over for the most part. I just don’t know where he gets a shot at full time playing time.

Dodgers Blue: In a league that counts K/9, ERA and WHIP, do you prefer Schwellenbach or Jared Jones as a 5th starter?

Justin Mason: Schwellenbach for me but it is really close

Kate: How quick do you think we’ll figure out the Boston bullpen situation?  Assuming they don’t sign a clear closer, I guess we kind of need to see what Hendriks looks like in spring?

Justin Mason: Probably need to wait until Spring, but I think they give him a shot.

Kate: Is Miguel Vargas as bad as he looked after coming over to Chicago this year?  Or is there still some modest upside in there?

Justin Mason: I think he will be fine, but I don’t see the upside that others do. I think he will turn into a decent accumulator, but not a star.

Guest: Chourio, Langford, Merrill, PCA  and even though he’s not a CFer, Woods.  Who do you like most?

Justin Mason: Chourio

Kate: Assuming the Mets don’t go TOO crazy signing bats, does Starling Marte go back to being an everyday guy this year?  They were pretty conservative with his PT in the second half last year.

Justin Mason: I think it just depends on who they sign, but I would expect he plays close to full time when healthy.

Chuck: Are you buying into James Wood for ’25? Is the K rate too concerning, or is this just a young player adjusting to MLB pitching?

Justin Mason: I think he is pretty risky at the price, but I do believe in the skills and I think he will adjust. It just is a lot of risk to take on an unproven player going inside of the top 50 aready

Shohei The Money: Rookie at the MLB level you’re most excited to watch?

Justin Mason: Emmanuel Rodriguez. I don’t know when he is up, but there is a ton of upside there.

Dodgers Blue: Are you trusting ANY of the Guardian’s starting pitchers, beyond Bibee, this year?  This cannot be the staff they enter the regular season with, right?

Justin Mason: I feel like there has to be a lower level signing coming at some point. I agree that they cant enter the season like this. Maybe a reunion with Cal Quantrill or Shane Beiber?

Sensei: Now almost 12 months and a full season in the past, has NFBC re-established player confidence that it’s the high stakes platform of choice?

Justin Mason: I think so. I am still playing there and haven’t had any issues.

Brandon: How confident do you feel in Felix Bautista returning next year? Back to the top closer? Top 5?

Justin Mason: I don’t know that I feel confident that he is top five but I think top ten is a fair projection. That being said, you never really know and I haven’t targeted him in a draft yet.

Dodgers Blue: Was the Cubs’ signing of Boyd an indictment on Brown, Wicks and Horton, or simply protection in case of injury and/or the youth not being quite ready at this point?

Justin Mason: I think it is depth and an easily flipped contract if they aren’t competing.

tumtum: Wondering what I should be expecting from Parker Meadows. His hard hit and hard% weren’t where I expect someone with above average power. Do you believe in him for what steamer is projection?

Justin Mason: I don’t think Steamer is completely off, but I do struggle to see how he keeps his playing time of he is hitting .237. I don’t think there is league average power in the bat for the most part. His value in fantasy comes from making better contact, walking and stealing bases. I have a feeling he may be in a part time role or back in the minors midseason.

Dodgers Blue: After his solid showing, are the Padres convinced Jackson Merrill is their starting CF the next decade – or will they feel pressure to bring him back onto the dirt as Machado and Bogaerts continue to age and decline defensively?

Justin Mason: With how he plays, no reason to take him out of center imo

dodgerydoos: Gil using the auction calculator ’24 production the cost is high and his Steamer projections say he’s worth replacement level.  Is he really this much of a regression candidate?

Justin Mason: The walks will always be an issue in projections, but I don’t think he will regress as much as steamer does. I think the truth is somewhere in the middle of Steamer and his 2024 production.

dodgerydoos: Is soderstrom a sleeper to breakout this spring?

Justin Mason: I think he definitely could be because there is a ton of power in that bat and he has a full path to playing time right now.

Idiotic Failson: Am I overthinking keeping a $25 Skubal in Otto? I feel like every year I get burned with pitching injuries and could move him for a cheap impact hitter and not have constant anxiety about his arm falling off.

Justin Mason: Yeah, I am keeping Skubal at that price

Kevin: From a fantasy baseball perspective, what do you know or understand now that you didn’t three or five years ago?

Justin Mason: God, there are so many. I think the most important one is that roster construction is one of the most important parts of the game. The best fantasy players aren’t necessarily the ones that know the game baseball the best or stats the best. It’s the ones that can take their knowledge of the two and use them to construct the most cohesive balanced rosters that extract the most value

Lord Thunder: Will Tomoyuki Sugano have fantasy relevance this season?

Justin Mason: I think so

Sensei: After Sasaki, who are the best Japanese players to start targeting (even if a year or two away)?

Justin Mason: To be honest, I don’t know the Japanese leagues well enough to answer this.

Idiotic Failson: Is Jordan Walker a post hype guy that is worth acquiring from teams looking to sell low? I generally avoid his type of profile (bad contact guys with huge power), but if he can just make a little contact…

Justin Mason: I think he is. The tools are too loud to not take a gamble

Brandon: Evan Carter was a huge disappointment last year. Any optimism for him in 2025?

Justin Mason: I worry that injuries and platoon issues may continue to be a problem for him.

Rickey: Does Chas McCormick have any chance of a rebound season?

Justin Mason: Really depends on what the Astros do in their outfield

Chucky: What are you expecting from the ballpark in Sacramento as far as the bats and pitching? Heard the park doesn’t play as much off as most PCL parks. *Thisclose* to keeping Butker

Justin Mason: I am waiting for smarter people than me to do the modeling on it. I would guess it will be a boost from Oakland, but not as big as one might think

Dodgers Blue: I’ve seen some pretty outrageous power predictions on Junior Caminero.  Are you buying into this?

Justin Mason: I think the power projections aren’t terrible, but I do question if the hit tool is fully developed. I think there are also launch angle concerns that could  tamper that how many homers he actually hits.

Idiotic Failson: In an auction league what is the highest % of your budget you spend on an ‘ace’?

Justin Mason: I have spent $40 of a $260 budget on a pitcher before, but it is pretty rare. For me it always comes down to value. If I am in an auction and I value a pitcher at $45 and I can get him at $40, then I am stoked, but usually I end up filling my rotation with more $10-20 arms.

Rickey: In a 12 team keeper, do you think Camineiro or vientos is a better keeper, at similar cost? And How would you rank Ragens (7th), Ober (11th) and Woo ((15th).

Justin Mason: Caminero especially if I can keep for multiple years. Ragans for the pitcher.

Mike: Thoughts on Lawrence Butler? Is 30/20 with a .250 a reasonable high end projection?

Justin Mason: I do

Dodgers Blue: Does Jordan Lawlar exist?  : (

Justin Mason: He does, but coming off of an injury plagued year and I don’t know what the upside is.

dodgerydoos: How many innings do you think McClanahan is going to reach this season? And how do you think the Rays’ new park will influence them now that they don’t have the Trop supressing things?

Justin Mason: I haven’t started pitching projections, but I would guess I am going to have him at about 140 innings. No idea on the park yet tbh

dodgerydoos: Wondering what I should do with my shares of Munoz, do you think he’ll beat his ’24 saves total and really assume the closer role?

Justin Mason: I think he will beat his 2024 saves total, but I don’t know if he will ever be the top 5 closer many thought he would

Idiotic Failson: Christopher Sanchez – good year or great pitcher?

Justin Mason: Good year

Sneaky: Think Luis Rengifo gets more consistent run next year?  And will he put up the .335 wOBA he’s had over his past 750 PAs?

Justin Mason: I really hope so, but can we ever really trust the Angels?

South Sider: 16 team H2H league with 2 UTIL spots, I can keep 6 players. I have Gunnar, Lindor, Abrams, all of which will only have SS eligibility in 2025. Is it dumb to keep all three? Who would you trade?

Justin Mason: I would try and trade Abrams or Lindor if I could. I think it is hard to roster all three but I would do it if I couldn’t find a trade partner.

Colton: Am I crazy for thinking there’s something with Toglia? Crazy 180 babip in the first half completely destroyed his end of the season counting numbers. But 25 home runs in 450 plate appearances is tough to ignore

Justin Mason: I think there is something there, but there is also risk with the lack of contact skills. He should play in Colorado, so I would take the gamble because the price is good and there is a ton of upside.

Sneaky: Gimme a projected slash line plus bombs for 2025 Oneil Cruz.  Please…

Justin Mason: .260/.325/.455 with 28 home runs

Justin Mason: Don’t hold me to that, I will be doing his projection later this wee

Sneaky: Thoughts on a couple back-end keepers: L. Butler and M. Wallner?

Justin Mason: Love Bulter. Must keep. Wallner is a fine deep league guy but nothing I am super excited by

Oneear: 15 team, stratomatic keeper, 56 games a year.  Chuck full of old men. Is Spencer Schwellenbach in the same tier as Skenes and Jones? We get 5 draft picks. Is Spencer Schwellenbach a top 10 guy?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he is a top 10 guy yet, but I do think it is in the range of outcomes.

Justin Mason: I have to wrap up. But thank you for chatting with me!

Justin Mason: Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Justin Mason: Here is my new linktree with all my social links and article links: linktr.ee/justinmasonfwfb