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The country's deadliest aviation disaster since 1997 comes at a politically volatile time.
Is Musk Trump’s muse – or his manipulator?
Is Elon Musk a 21st-century Svengali? Two weeks after being accused of acting like the president – instead of a presidential advisor – when he attempted to sway Congress to torpedo a spending bill, the tech magnate is wielding political influence once again – and enraging some supporters of President-elect Donald Trump.
Remembering Jimmy Carter's foreign policy legacy: Ian Bremmer looks back
Jimmy Carter, the 39th President of the United States, has died at the age of 100. A one-term president whose administration was marred by inflation, a gas crisis, and the Iranian hostage standoff, Carter went on to have one of the most illustrious post-presidencies in American history. Here's a remembrance from Ian Bremmer on President Carter’s foreign policy legacy.
A Georgian reflects on the life of Jimmy Carter
We Georgians have always had mixed feelings about the 39th president, who died today, Dec. 29, 2024, at age 100.
Georgia’s new president sworn in amid protests
On Sunday, Georgia inaugurated President Mikheil Kavelashvili amid growing demonstrations and accusations of election fraud perpetrated by Moscow. Kavelashvili, a former soccer player, was selected by a 300-member electoral college controlled by the ruling Georgian Dream party, which now dominates every major government institution.
Russia ends missile deployment ban
Russia no longer considers itself bound by its unilateral moratorium on the deployment of intermediate and shorter-range nuclear-capable missiles, clearing the way for Moscow to deploy the weapons across Europe and Asia.
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Is Musk Trump’s muse – or his manipulator?
Is Elon Musk a 21st-century Svengali? Two weeks after being accused of acting like the president – instead of a presidential advisor – when he attempted to sway Congress to torpedo a spending bill, the tech magnate is wielding political influence once again – and enraging some supporters of President-elect Donald Trump.
At issue: the H-1B Visa program, which Musk says is crucial to attracting foreign tech talent, but which many Republicans claim takes jobs away from Americans. Last Friday, Musk and fellow Department of Government Efficiency head Vivek Ramaswamyfeuded publicly with GOP firebrand Laura Loomer, who posted to X Thursday, “Donald Trump promised to remove the H1B visa program and I support his policy.”
On Friday, Musk posted that “hateful unrepentant racists” – a swipe at MAGA anti-immigrant Republicans – must be removed from the Republican Party “root and stem.” The next day, Trump seemed to toe Musk’s line: Despite having previously criticized the H-1B program as “very bad” and “unfair” for US workers, Trump told the New York Post, “I’ve always liked the visas. I have always been in favor of the visas.” Hmm.
But it’s not clear just whose team Musk is playing for. While telling racists to leave the GOP and praising the contribution of foreign workers in the US, Musk declared his support for Germany’s far-right anti-immigrant party, Alternative for Germany, aka AfD, ahead of Deutchland’s February elections. Three state chapters of the AfD in the former communist East are classified as extremist – and are under surveillance by Germany’s domestic intelligence service.
But the contradictions don’t seem to bother Trump. “Where are you?” Trump posted on his Truth Social account Friday morning, entreating Musk to visit him and Bill Gates at Mar-a-Lago, aka “the center of the universe.”
For more on MAGA, the American dream, and immigration, check out Ian Bremmer’s latest Quick Take here.
MAGA, the American Dream and immigration
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take in this holiday season on the back of the biggest fight in the United States that we have seen among Trump supporters since his election win.
Started off when Vivek Ramaswamy, the billionaire, the co-director of this new Department of Government Efficiency, DOGE as they're calling it, writing that we have to bring in lots of high-talent immigrants, complaining that American culture isn't getting it right for the people that they need to hire in order to make the United States win and more competitive. We hear it all the time. You need to staple a green card to every STEM PhD that's being awarded to non-Americans in the US so they can stay. You need to keep those students here. You need to bring in far more talented legal immigrants in larger numbers to address the talent gap in the United States, and if Americans want to win, that's what you need to do.
The average American has heard this before, and they've heard it for a long time. To be clear, it is not like the US economy isn't winning right now. You look at the stock market, you look at corporate profits, you look at Elon Musk, the dude is worth nearly half a trillion dollars, and that's with a very strong dollar. Look at how the United States' economy has performed since the pandemic, while Europe, and Japan, and South Korea, and Canada, and others just are not, and they're not innovating, and they don't have the big companies. I've heard this about other issues. I've heard about tariffs. I've heard about even free trade. You hear it about investments and capital flows around the world and need to make things work more effectively for the big money in the United States. And working-class and middle-class Americans know that when elites in the US say that the US is going to win, that it doesn't mean 'em. The United States, for so many Americans, is a country of second-class healthcare, and second-class education, and second-class opportunities. And if the American dream doesn't work for the average American citizen, then you're telling them we should be bringing in really much more talented Indians? Good luck with that argument for them.
And those of you that know me, know that that's not my personal perspective. I grew up in the projects with a mother though that did absolutely everything for her kids. And I had opportunities. We had opportunities. I feel very lucky to have been born in America, not better than anyone else, not having any more intrinsic worth, just super, super fortunate. So the American Dream absolutely worked for me. Capitalism in the US and the ability to be an entrepreneur absolutely worked for me. But most of the kids that grew up in my neighborhood don't feel that way today, along with far too many working and middle-class Americans.
And if the United States felt like the land of opportunity instead of a two-tier system where you buy your way into privilege, and you buy your way into opportunity, and then you make sure you do that for your kids, and the best indicator of how well an American is going to do is how fortunate your parents are compared to other advanced industrial democracies, rich democracies around the world, well, that is not a country that's going to say, "Yeah, we need to do more to help the wealthiest win." Because the wealthiest have already figured out how to win for themselves, and there are lobbying dollars, and their access to the best that the world has to offer for them in the United States. If the average American felt that way and felt that applied to them, then Trump wouldn't be president today. You wouldn't have "America First" resonating for so many people that want to undermine globalism because globalism wasn't about the globe and it wasn't about all Americans. It was about just getting it done for that small, small group of people with access to capital.
This is the failure of globalism, and this is why the United States doesn't want to take the lead on global security, or global trade, or even global democracy anymore. You have to be a leader at home before you can effectively lead anybody, nevermind everybody else. This is what we're facing come January 20th. I think it's a useful fight to see play out publicly because there's a very big difference between those that have access to decision-making, power and authority in the United States and those that turned out and actually voted, the masses that voted against the establishment. And to the extent that they continue to be hard done by and every expectation for the last 40 years in the US is that that will be the case, whether it's a Democrat or Republican running the country, this situation is only going to get more toxic.
That's it for me. I wish everyone Happy holidays. Hope you had a merry Christmas. Looking forward to the new Year. I'll talk to you all real soon.
What would it mean for the US to leave the World Health Organization?
President-elect Donald Trump’s advisors are reportedly urging him to pull the United States out of the World Health Organization on his first day in office, according to a report published Sunday in the Financial Times.
The US currently provides approximately 16% of the WHO’s funding, giving it outsized influence on the institution. Experts say a withdrawal would severely hamper the world’s ability to respond to public health crises like pandemics.
"Politically, Trump’s lack of support could open the door to lowered support from other countries, in an environment of increased skepticism towards international engagement and foreign aid in general—especially among many ascendant right-wing parties in Europe—amid fiscal constraints and pressures to increase defense spending," says Eurasia Group's Laura Yasaitis. "Ongoing pandemic preparedness efforts, such as the pandemic treaty, would be majorly set back, as would other efforts like the polio eradication campaign."
It’s not an empty threat. Trump actually initiated the process of leaving the WHO in 2020, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, accusing the organization of being controlled by China. He never followed through on the actual withdrawal, however, and Joe Biden re-established ties in 2021.
This time around, Trump has aligned himself with figures whose views on healthcare are well outside the scientific consensus. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., a vociferous opponent of vaccination, is tapped to lead Health and Human Services, while David Weldon, another anti-vaxxer from the fringe, is set to lead the Centers for Disease Control. Incoming Food and Drug Administration commissioner Martin Makary has also questioned the benefits of certain vaccines, like hepatitis B and COVID boosters. With advisers like these, the WHO would be smart to start planning for a pullout, even if it doesn’t happen on Jan. 20.
Beijing won’t butt in on this one, of course, since they stand to gain the most from US healthcare isolationism. If Trump was worried about Chinese control of the WHO back in 2020, pulling out in 2025 would all but guarantee that Beijing steps into the void.
Trump hurls Congress headlong toward a government shutdown
Representatives on Capitol Hill spent all day Thursday scrambling to cobble together a deal to keep the government open, after pressure from President-elect Donald Trump and his billionaire ally Elon Musk sank must-pass legislation on Wednesday.
If lawmakers can’t agree and pass a continuing resolution — legalese for kicking the financial can down the road — by the end of the day on Friday, the government will shut down. Late on Thursday, Republicans presented a deal that Trump called a “SUCCESS,” while House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) called it “laughable” and insisted the caucus would not support anything but the originally negotiated plan.
While the new plan would fund federal agencies through March 14, and preserve provisions for disaster relief and farm aid, it also gives Trump a major concession. The bill would suspend America’s debt ceiling from Jan. 1, 2025, to Jan. 30, 2027, giving the president a break through his first round of midterm elections. Without Democratic votes, Republicans don’t have the numbers to pass the bill.
If the deal falls through, millions of Americans will see their government benefits halted, the military will work without pay, and much of the federal government will be furloughed just ahead of the Christmas and Hanukkah holidays.
We’re watching how Congress hammers its way out of this dilemma, but longer term, we have our eye on the influence of Musk, whose social media rampage — over 150 posts starting before dawn on Wednesday — kicked off this maelstrom.
Hard Numbers: Air Canada to answer for sky-high baggage fees, Biden sets clemency record, Ottawa sanctions Chinese officials over Xinjiang abuses, Most Americans want feds to guarantee health care, Trump promises to “To ROCK” for a billion dollars
25 and 36: Think those additional carry-on baggage fees on airlines are getting out of hand? You’re not alone. Canadian lawmakers are set to grill Air Canada CEO Mike Rousseau about it on Friday after the nation’s flagship carrier hit low-fare travelers with new fees of $25 on their first carry-on, and $36 on their second. The CEOs of WestJet, Porter, and Air Transat Airlines will also be questioned. Airlines say that extra fees like this have become an indispensable source of revenue as cutthroat competition drives down profit margins.
1,500: US President Joe Biden on Thursday commuted the sentences of nearly 1,500 people in the largest act of clemency ever by a modern US president. The commutations applied to people who were placed in home confinement during the COVID pandemic when authorities sought to thin out crowded prison populations to slow the spread of the virus. Biden also pardoned 39 people who had been convicted of non-violent drug-related offenses. In case you are wondering: Commutation reduces a prison sentence, while a pardon erases a criminal record entirely.
8: Canada this week placed sanctions on eight Chinese government officials over alleged human rights abuses against the Uighurs, a Muslim minority, in China’s far western province of Xinjiang. The Chinese government stands accused of arbitrarily detaining more than a million people there, many of whom were subjected to psychological torture or forced labor in camps. Beijing denies the allegations.
62: A new poll shows nearly two-thirds of Americans, or 62%, think the federal government should ensure that people have health care coverage, the highest mark since 2006. As always, the partisan split is stark: 90% of Democrats agree with the idea, a 60-point gap compared to Republicans. Americans are split nearly evenly on whether insurance should be provided by the government or the private sector. A narrow majority of Americans support the Obama-era Affordable Care Act. There too, nearly all Democrats are pro-ACA, against just a fifth of Republicans and barely half of Independents.
1 billion: Got a billion dollars to invest in the United States? If so, President-elect Donald Trumpwants to roll out the red carpet for you – or at least grant you “expedited approvals and permits, including, but in no way limited to, all Environmental approvals.” He made the pledge in a Truth Social post. It’s unclear what that will entail or how it will work, but it’s part of Trump’s plan to boost investment in the United States by slashing onerous permitting requirements that have come in for bipartisan criticism in recent years. “GET READY TO ROCK!” wrote Trump.
Can Trump's tariff plan boost the US economy?
President-elect Donald Trump has made no secret of his love of tariffs, vowing steep import taxes on China, Mexico, Canada, and almost every product that crosses the US border on his first day in office. Will they boost US jobs and manufacturing, as Trump promises, or lead to rising inflation, as many economists warn? On GZERO World, Oren Cass, founder and chief economist at conservative think tank American Compass, joins Ian Bremmer for an in-depth discussion about Trump’s tariff plan and the future of US-China trade policy. Cass believes that tariffs are a way to level the playing field with China, which he says “flouts international rules and any concept of a free market.” He says tariffs can help correct global trade imbalances and doesn’t believe they’ll lead to a dramatic spike in consumer prices.
“When you raise money through a tariff, you don’t set that money on fire. It’s also tax revenue,” Cass explains, “We have a $2 trillion deficit. If I told you that there was some other tax that was going to help reduce the deficit, you’d probably say that would help reign inflation in.”
Watch full episode: The case for Trump's tariffs
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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China’s vows to pump up its economy — with one eye on Trump’s tariffs
China’s Politburo — the top leadership cabinet — said Monday it would take “more proactive” fiscal measures and loosen up its monetary policy in 2025 as it aims to boost domestic consumption. The body met ahead of the annual Central Economic Work Conference, reportedly scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, at which the country’s economic policy priorities for the coming year are laid out — and one of those priorities is gearing up for Donald Trump.
The background: China has experienced over three years of economic turmoil that originated in the all-important property market, where most Chinese households keep their long-term savings. Defaults and halted constructions from major developers dovetailed with a local government debt crunch to place tremendous headwinds against economic growth, leading to stock market turbulence and high youth unemployment.
Beijing has attempted to goose growth with monetary easing (aka lowering central bank interest rates) since September and unveiled a $1.4 trillion debt package aimed at stabilizing growth in November. But kickstarting the economic engine is proving difficult.
Watch out for Trump: The incoming US president is promising to hike tariffs on Chinese goods, having mentioned figures as high as 60% on the campaign trail. While tariffs are a laborious way to cut off one’s nose to spite one’s face and are likely to hurt the US economy, Beijing’s exports are one of the few sectors doing well right now. Getting to a stable footing before the trade barriers go up must be a high priority.
China isn’t just playing defense though: US chip-making giant NVIDIA saw its stock slide 3% on Monday after news broke that Beijing was opening an antitrust investigation. NVIDIA has been a darling of investors during the AI boom, with shares nearly tripling in value this year — but this shot across the bows is a sign of what could come.Opinion: The world prepares its go bags
The abundance of volatility in the global system since at least the start of the pandemic has meant that we should expect more geopolitical risk rather than less. Now, in addition to multiple ongoing conflicts, a year of electoral instability, and pandemic hangovers, the return of Donald Trump as the US president injects further unpredictability into this landscape.
Already since his reelection, an unusual set of waves have crested. In South Korea – a key US ally – the declaration of martial law last week stunned the domestic and international audience. After widespread protests broke out, President Yoon Suk Yeol issued a quick (but not immediate) retraction with more fallout yet to come. Elsewhere, in France, Prime Minister Michel Barnier lost a no-confidence vote after parliamentary budget talks stalled. The measure reveals the fractures and radicalized forces that continue to plague one of Europe’s leading economies. And in Syria, Islamist militants turned Aleppo and Damascus into a hot zone once again – raising tensions in an already active neighborhood – before spectacularly overthrowing Bashar Assad’s government on Saturday.
Trump is, of course, not responsible for any of these developments. But the world is on edge. His posts in recent weeks on Truth Social have done little to assuage the anxieties and instead serve as kerosene to various burning fires. Trump roiled markets in late November when he announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on all products coming into the US from Mexico and Canada with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. The market remarkably found the news surprising despite Trump’s avowal throughout his 2024 election campaign that he would again rely on the tariff lever as president.
More recently, Trump posted to warn that if the hostages held by Hamas are not released before his inauguration there will be “ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East.” Trump’s commitment to “hit harder” those responsible at a historic level strikes a distinctly different tone than the one regional actors have become accustomed to with Joe Biden’s administration.
In response to the preexisting condition of volatility and the forthcoming infusion of Trumpredictability, the world is preparing “go bags” for the year(s) ahead. For both global political leaders and private sector firms, this preparation involves kicking the tires on current strategy, stress testing supply chains and sourcing, evaluating budget plans, and checking in with the man himself.
After Trump’s tariff threats, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau flew immediately to Mar-a-Lago to assess the damage. Inremarks afterward, Trudeau said it was an “excellent conversation” and that he “look[ed] forward to the work we can do together, again.” In his own posts, Trump said the two had discussed many important topics that would require the US and Canada to work together, including trade, illegal drugs, and energy. In the days that followed, Trump posted a photo of himself staring out at snow-capped mountains with the Canadian flag at his side – after jokingly saying the country could become America’s 51st state. It was a reminder to Trudeau that one dinner will not resolve everything.
European leaders, meanwhile, are debating a lot more defensive spending for the journey ahead. At early December meetings of NATO foreign ministers, Secretary-General Mark Rutte thanked Trump for getting NATO territory allies to the 2% defensive spend target, calling it the “Trump push.” Rutte went on to say that – and not just because of Trump – he now believes strongly the 2% is not enough for long-term deterrence. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock similarly called on NATO to make big investments in European security beyond the standard 2% defensive target.
In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky has seemingly demonstrated a new willingness to consider negotiations as a Trump return looms. After repeatedly vowing to continue the fight, Zelensky indicated this week he would be open to Western troops deploying in Ukraine as a security guarantee and step toward NATO membership to halt the war with Russia. The shift comes as polls suggest that Ukrainians are increasingly inclined toward a negotiated solution, but also after months of Trump campaign pledges to swiftly drive settlement and end the war. With Assad’s toppling in Syria, having long been propped up by Russia, Putin will be recalculating his own ambitions in Ukraine in real time in the coming weeks.
Unsurprisingly, Trump is not immune to the effect he is having on global behavior. He launched a site to track the “Promises Kept,” which tallies “securing our border,” “working towards international peace,” and “propelling economic growth” among his pre-inauguration successes.
The world at the close of 2024 stands on the precipice, awaiting the impact that another Trump presidency will bring. Trump 2.0 will be all-encompassing. His administration will pursue policies that reshape the global economy and international trade patterns. It will target ongoing fault lines and new challengers. And there will be unpredictability. Global leaders of all stripes are counting on being kept on their toes. Some across Europe have even begun ramping up crisis capabilities for citizens with initiatives advising on stockpiling and bunker building. They have six weeks to pack their bags.
Lindsay Newman is a geopolitical risk expert and columnist for GZERO.