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Trump, Putin, and Xi want to have more babies
This week, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping's new podcast, This Authoritarian Life, welcomes special guest Donald Trump to talk about a very (in)fertile issue. #PUPPETREGIME
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Brazil's X ban becomes a rallying cry for Bolsonaro
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. Haven't spoken in a while about Brazil, and thought I might, given the demonstrations going on over the weekend and the big fight that is going on around democracy, around free speech, around the social media site that is known as Twitter/X. The issue here is that as in the United States, politics in Brazil exceptionally polarized and divided lots of issues questioning the future of the country's democracy, whether or not you can have a free and fair transition. January 8th in Brazil has the resonance for part of its population the way that January 6th does in the United States, participants seen as patriots by the other part of the population. You see where we're going here. One big difference between Brazil and the United States is in the United States, the Supreme Court, while it has at times a liberal and presently a conservative bent, is still an independent organization that is very separate from the executive.
In Brazil, it is much more politicized and corrupt. And specifically the effort to take down Twitter / X, in Brazil as well as freeze the accounts of Starlink for example, also owned by Elon Musk, has been overreach, politicized overreach by one specific Supreme Court member, Alexandre de Moraes, and has been approved by the Supreme Court as a whole. Now the issue here is a number of accounts that were disseminating disinformation, fake news, and claimed by the government needed to be taken down by Twitter / X. Twitter / X has refused to do so. And that angered those on the left in Brazil, especially because when other demands are made to remove individual accounts in other countries, like in Turkey or the UAE, which are made with similarly, I would say, tenuous justification, but if that's what the political leaders are saying in that country, that amounts to an order by a relevant authority.
Twitter / X has historically overwhelmingly complied and, indeed, taken down those accounts. We've seen that in a number of countries, not all the time but most of the time, and that hasn't been the case in Brazil. Is the reason why Elon Musk and Twitter refuse to remove these accounts because he's politically aligned or sympathetic with them? Certainly that would be the argument that is being made in Brazil. But there is an opportunity here from the conservatives, including from former President Bolsonaro to use this and the opposition to freedom of speech as a rallying call. And that was what we saw in these demonstrations over the weekend. They were significant. You might've seen the photos. About 50,000 total on Brazil's Independence Day, that's September 7th, in Sao Paulo attending the rally. They're small historically in context. I mean, Bolsonaro back in February got almost 200,000 protesters, so about four times as many to attend a rally also in Sao Paulo.
But it was significant because it does show that the defense of liberty and democracy is a rallying cry of the opposition in the next presidential election that's coming up in 2026, which is not so far away. And both Bolsonaro's speech as well as most of the conservative leaders that appeared with him, like the Sao Paulo governor for example, had heavy, heavy criticism of the Supreme Court ruling and specifically of Justice de Moraes, as we've seen from Elon. And they are accusing the Supreme Court of undermining freedom of speech. With the ongoing court investigations both about disseminating false information about the electoral system and about the January 8th attacks in Brasilia. And the fact that X has now been banned from Brazil after Elon has refused to comply. And by the way, I mean it's not the most important, it's a comparatively small social media site in Brazil.
There are others that are much more popular. But still this is getting a lot of attention because it is such a political grenade, and that is helping the conservative opposition in Brazil say that individual freedoms are being undermined. And the interesting point here is this is related to the United States. Both sides of the aisle in Brazil just like both sides of the aisle in the United States believe that the other side is a threat to democracy in ways that you don't see in Canada, or the UK, or France, or Germany, or Japan, or South Korea. I would say Brazil is the one major democracy that most feels like the United States in terms of this level of political dysfunction. But what's interesting is that it is the Bolsonaro-led opposition that is using the defense of democracy and liberty to mobilize its base before the 2026 elections. This has historically been much more of a calling card of the left. And in the United States democratic voters care more about the issue of defending democracy as a political issue than Republicans do, in Brazil conservative voters care more about defense of democracy than voters on the left. And this fight that was started by the Supreme Court is playing into that narrative. So interesting, worth talking about, getting a lot of attention. Thought I would throw my own two cents in, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Trump reveals historic Putin chat in Musk interview
During his X-space chat with Elon Musk, Donald Trump described a world-historic conversation that he said he had with Vladimir Putin, in which he convinced the Russian president NOT to do something absolutely dastardly. Puppet Regime has the scoop! #PUPPETREGIME
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An image of Elon Musk is seen on a smartphone placed on printed Twitter logos.
What We're Watching: The end of Twitter (as we know it), climate reparations at COP27
Quo vadis, Elon?
Elon Musk is taking disruption to a whole new level as the CEO of Twitter. After firing half of his staff on Friday, the world's richest man has lit another fire with plans for an $8 subscription service to get verified on the social media platform. Before Musk took over, the coveted blue check was free for public figures, companies, and journalists, but now technically anybody can get it. That raises the stakes for all sorts of misinformation mayhem, though the rollout has now been delayed until after Tuesday's US midterm elections. Major corporate advertisers responded to the brouhaha by pausing their ads, with Musk admitting a big drop in revenue, which he blamed on firms caving to activists' demands. So, what’s next? Ian Bremmer — who tussled with Musk over Russia-Ukraine just weeks before the gazillionaire bought Twitter — hinted that the platform's new boss might have a shorter tenure than disgraced former British PM Liz Truss, who famously lasted less time than a head of lettuce in her last days in office. For Russia, Bremmer noted, "buying a few thousand verified Twitter accounts at $8/pop to promote disinfo feels like a no-brainer."
Will rich countries compensate poor ones for climate change?
This year’s COP27 climate summit, which kicked off Sunday, will likely be a tense and sweaty affair — and not only because it’s being held in the balmy Egyptian resort town of Sharm El-Sheikh. A group of 77 developing nations, led by flood-ravaged Pakistan, is expected to make a passionate plea for “loss and damage." That's code for developed countries paying “reparations” to nations that are suffering from climate change despite contributing the least to global warming. This is the first COP to formally have this item on the agenda, a year after the US and the EU challenged a similar proposal at COP26. But the environment — actually and politically – has paved the way to at least have a discussion. Meanwhile, there’s also an economic shadow hanging over the conference. New data indicate that global warming will worsen health inequalities between rich and poor countries. Yet, there is still (some) hope: Rising inflation has propelled governments to cut back on fossil fuels, making the International Energy Agency optimistic that COP27 might be a “turning point” in the global transition to clean energy.
Elon Musk to buy Twitter: will misinformation thrive?
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, discusses the political impact of Elon Musk's plan to buyTwitter.
Why will Elon Musk be in a political hotspot if he buys Twitter?
The announcement that Twitter has agreed to be acquired by billionaire Elon Musk has set both the social media site and Washington political analysis ablaze. Liberals and conservatives both agree that Twitter is an essential town square, an important tool for political communication and outreach.
But liberals are concerned about policing hate speech and abuse, as well as misinformation on the platform, things they have criticized Twitter for in the past, while conservatives have criticized what they see as Twitter's overly aggressive content moderation policies that's resulted in the removal of several prominent conservative figures, including former President Trump from the platform, but has also resulted in the censorship of discussion around issues like the efficacy of mask mandates and stopping the spread of coronavirus, the potential origins of the pandemic in a Wuhan laboratory, and discussion about the contents of the laptop stolen from current President Biden's son. Musk has promised to be a free speech absolutist suggesting he will reinstate many of the banned accounts and not censor freewheeling speech about controversial topics online.
But one thing to watch is that Musk's approach is likely to create massive regulatory challenges for both Musk and the website, particularly in Europe, which has much stricter speech codes than the United States, requiring content moderation and banning things like hate speech. The EU just recently passed a law that would censor and fine companies that do not comply, and several high-ranking EU officials have already sent warnings to Musk that he must moderate illegal and harmful content online. Musk has developed a reputation as being an aggressive disruptor of the status quo in Washington, breaking into industries, such as space launch and broadband deployment, and he has also a long history of flouting US regulators, leading to sanctions from securities regulators, as well as admonishment from transportation safety and labor regulators in Washington, and this is unlikely to stop.
For his part, President Trump has said he doesn't want to get back on Twitter, but it seems likely that if Twitter lifts its ban on his account, the platform and the fundraising opportunities will be too great for him to ignore. Much like how Trump's tweets are too difficult for political journalists to ignore, setting up a stage for a return to the Trump-dominated political discourse that existed in the United States from 2015 until he was banned from Twitter in early 2021.
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