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A hurricane
In the AI of the hurricane
Artificial intelligence models are getting better at predicting the paths of hurricanes.
Earlier this year, a model called GraphCast from Google’s DeepMind AI lab was able to accurately predict the path of Hurricane Beryl, forecasting that it’d take a turn away from Mexico and hit Texas. That prediction was correct — and came a week earlier than conventional meteorological models. Meanwhile, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ own AI model correctly predicted that Hurricane Francine would hit Louisiana before traditional models. These models can process large amounts of historical data to make their forecasts, while other models such as Nvidia’s FourCastNet work by modeling the entire Earth.
Still, while AI weather models appear good at tracking the direction of hurricanes, they struggle with determining other factors such as the intensity of the storms. So, at least in the near term, these models will work alongside human modelers rather than replace them.
People wait in line to buy bread before Rafael's arrival in Havana, Cuba, on Nov. 5, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Cuba battens down the hatches, Mexico’s judicial reform stands, Iran’s currency hits record low, Tsk tsk Pyongyang, Reckless raccoon
8: On Tuesday, Mexico’s Supreme Court dismissed a proposal to narrow the scope of a controversial reform plan that would require all judges in the country to stand for election. Seven of the 11 justices voted to limit the election requirement to Supreme Court justices, buteight votes were needed to water down the reform.
703,000: On Wednesday, Iran’s currency fell to an all-time low as news of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election hit markets. The rial traded at703,000 to the dollar before a slight recovery later in the day.
2/3: Ten of the 15 current UN Security Council members condemned North Korea’s recent launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile and called on Pyongyang to return to negotiations. Ecuador, France, Japan, Malta, South Korea, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom supported a US statement of condemnation. Russia, China, Algeria, Mozambique, and Guyana refused.
8 billion: At the Marine Air Terminal at New York’s LaGuardia airport, a raccoon fell through the ceiling at a departure gate earlier this week, causing chaos. This smaller terminal was not part of the infamously ramshackle airport’s recent$8 billion upgrade.
Homes and cars were damaged in the Avenir development by a tornado from Hurricane Milton on October 10, 2024, in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.
To the victim belongs the spoils: Why is there such a big political fight to become a victim?
The real victims of the deadly hurricanes Helene and Milton are the citizens of Florida, North Carolina, and four other states. Republicans and Democrats alike. Hurricanes don’t distinguish between voters, and all people are deserving of the same level of support. At least 230 people were killed by Hurricane Helene just weeks ago, and now, as I write this, the carnage of Milton, which just ripped through Florida, is still being assessed. How these victims vote should have no place in the discussion.
Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, aka MTG, has pitched a different theory: She believes the real victims of the hurricanes are Republicans, who are being targeted by Democrat-controlled storms to tilt election results.
“Yes they can control the weather,” she wrote on X after Hurricane Helene. “Anyone who says they don’t, or makes fun of this, is lying to you. By the way, the people know it and hate all of you who try to cover it up.”
Who are “they,” exactly?
MTG explained on social media that the hurricanes are partly controlled by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (I assume that is …“Deep Weather”?). Then she brought out the maps for the kicker.
“This is a map of hurricane affected areas with an overlay of electoral map by political party shows how hurricane devastation could affect the election,” she wrote on X, suggesting that Republican voting districts are being targeted by the … Democrat-controlled hurricanes.
A few months back, I wrote an article called “Fake Clouds, Seeding Doubt” to debunk the weather conspiracy about a well-known program called cloud seeding that has been used to promote small amounts of rain in drought-prone areas. It has been used for more than 50 years and is not even close to controlling the weather with massive hurricanes. That is all paranoid nonsense, but very much on-brand for a Category 5 conspiracy theorist like MTG. Who can forget her 2018 antisemitic theory that Jewish-controlled space lasers caused forest fires?
As Ian Bremmerwrote yesterday, the disinformation surrounding the genuine FEMA support for the victims of Hurricane Helene has proven dangerous, but it is just part of a bigger storm surge of campaign disinformation about everything from abortion to immigration to taxes to crime. Beneath it all, there is one strategy: Make your supporters feel like victims.
This is an old political tactic because it bonds a tribe of voters with a sense of identity against perceived and real threats, and, more importantly, it provides moral validation for counter-action. If the system is stacked against you, then any response — including, say, peaceful or violent protests — becomes justified. Vandals become activists. Insurrectionists are transformed into patriots.
A strategically cultivated sense of victimization is where the extremes on the right meet the extremes on the left. Some left-wing groups discovered the benefits of self-declared victimization long ago, and they have used it as a cudgel to silence debate, destroy property, and create odious conditions of political correctness.
Some groups on the right see themselves as constantly targeted by Big Pharma, Big Tech, fake media, biased justice systems — and now, by hurricanes.
This dynamic played out in painful ways on Oct. 7, marking one year since the brutal massacre of 1,200 innocent people in Israel and the kidnapping of 250 more by the terror group Hamas. For many in Israel and around the globe, the anniversary of Oct. 7 was a day to remember and honor those victims of Hamas.
But for some who have criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s policy toward Palestinians and see his military actions in Gaza as an illegal form of collective punishment, Oct. 7 was a day of resistance.
Each side made the case that they are the real victims and therefore their response is justified, but in the endless regression of victimization and partisanship — you did this, but you did that first, etc. — basic morality got lost. One case of victimization doesn’t invalidate another.
Protesting Israel’s war tactics in Gaza against Hamas and the horrifically high civilian death toll is valid in any democracy — and it’s as common an occurrence inside Israel as it is outside of it. But should that prevent the acknowledgment and condemnation of the massacre of 1,200 innocent people in Israel? Should that disqualify a sovereign country’s right to self-defense against a terror group?
At its worst, the self-identifying of victimhood can be used to lend a moral fig leaf to cruel actions, but even victims of the worst violence must adhere to the rule of law, the rules of war, and the protection of human rights. That is not a sign of weakness in a society, but a sign of strength.
It also doesn’t mean you have to fall into the trap of false moral equivalency or mealymouthed both-sidesism. Calling out lies or excesses does not always reveal political bias, but an adherence to facts and humanity.
In the military, one of the worst sins is stolen valor, when someone pretends to have done things they didn’t do or pretends to have served when they didn’t. On the campaign trail, we see something else: stolen victimization.
Instead of focusing on the actual victims of violence — or weather — the stolen-victim folks make it all about them, hoarding the attention so it can be used for their political agendas, treating the suffering of people as props for their latest campaign.
In the hurricane of voices on the extreme right and left claiming the mantle of victimization, the partisanship divides grow deeper, and what democracies need most to solve problems gets lost: basic empathy.
Why Trump-Putin calls are cause for concern
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
As another hurricane hits Florida, how is information complicating disaster relief efforts?
Well, the heads of FEMA are saying this is by far the worst misinformation environment they've ever seen around a natural disaster, and it makes life a lot more difficult. First of all, it means a lot of people that need help aren't getting help, a lot of people that need to evacuate aren't evacuating, and it undermines the morale of the people that are working to try to help respond to the hurricane. So, for all of these reasons, when you have people saying that the money isn't actually being sent or it's being displaced, or that there are blockades, all of these things, if there's ever a time that you need scientists and authorities to be believed and listened to, it's in a national emergency. We saw these problems with the pandemic working with a lot of uncertainty, and you now see this working with a hurricane, working with a lot of certainty. So, even in an environment that should be depoliticized should be very straightforward that everyone comes together, it doesn't matter if you're red or blue. If you're getting hit by a hurricane, you need the same information. You need the same services that's being undermined by a disinformation environment. My God, am I worried about that in the aftermath of the US election in November. People should not sleep on how challenging it's going to be to get through that.
What do Southeast Asian leaders hope to accomplish at the ASEAN regional summit?
Well, the big thing they hope to accomplish, and this is not an organization like the EU or NATO; it's a pretty disparate group of countries that have very different political and economic systems and values and preferences; not a lot of common authority, but certainly, they all want to see an end to the civil war that has been expanding in Myanmar. And so the top issue is can they collectively push for diplomatic engagement between the two sides that have not been willing to talk to each other? Certainly, that is Secretary of State Tony Blinken's hope and effort in his attendance right now. We'll see if it goes anywhere, but it's increasingly disruptive for economics, for infrastructure, supply chain across the region, and right now, it is getting worse.
What do you make of reports that Trump stayed in touch with Putin after leaving office?
We heard from Bob Woodward, this new book coming out, some seven direct conversations, phone calls that Trump had with Putin since leaving the presidency, which does surprise me a little, honestly. We know that Zelensky really wanted to have one conversation with Trump a few weeks ago during the United Nations meetings on the sidelines, and it looked like that wasn't going to happen, and then finally it did. Certainly, for those that are concerned that Trump and Putin are continuing engagement and that means that Zelensky might be thrown under the bus, there's more reason to be concerned about that given those ongoing conversations. Certainly, you'd want to know what they're about. Trump does want an end to the war. Frankly, most of the world is aligned with him and wanting an end to the war, and I think it's useful to be able to talk with Putin directly. Frankly, I think that people like Biden and Ursula von der Leyen and the NATO secretary general should be talking to Putin even though there is a war going on that they're on opposite sides of, because it would help potentially long-term reduce tensions and lead to a greater potential of a negotiated settlement. But that's very different from a bunch of conversations that had not been discussed and that aren't necessarily trusted.
Satellite image of Hurricane Milton as of 8 p.m., on Oct. 8, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Florida braces for Milton, First survey of transgender US students, TikTok faces new legal challenges, BJP defeated in Kashmir, Dominican Republic escalates deportations
9: Millions have boarded up, sandbagged, and evacuated their homes in Florida this week as Hurricane Milton barrels through the Gulf of Mexico toward the Sunshine State. Deemed a Category 5 storm on Tuesday, with winds reaching speeds of up to 180 mph, Milton is expected to weaken slightly but still bring an "extremely life-threatening situation" when it makes landfall Wednesday night. Meanwhile, the Federal Emergency Management Agency – still busy with the impact of last month’s Hurricane Helene – reported this week that only 9% of its personnel, or 1,217 staffers, were available to help with new disaster relief efforts.
3.3: About 3.3% of US high school students identify as transgender, according to a new survey. The first-of-its-kind study also revealed 2.2% of students are questioning their gender identity. About 10% of transgender students reported suicide attempts, 10 times that of cisgender boys. Transgender issues are at the center of America’s culture wars – while most Americans favor discrimination protections for transgender people, support for restrictions on transgender care and education is significantly higher among Republicans than among Democrats.
13: TikTok is in legal hot water again as 13 US states and the District of Columbia have filed a lawsuit against the short-form video platform alleging that it breaks US consumer protection laws and has exacerbated a mental health crisis among teenagers. The suit comes as TikTok faces the prospect of being banned outright in the US next January unless it cuts ties with its China-based parent company ByteDance.
42: An alliance committed to restoring Kashmir’s autonomy within India won the region’s elections, which culminated on Oct. 8, taking 48 of the local legislature’s 90 seats. The vote was the first since Kashmir was stripped of its special status in 2019 by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose Hindu nationalist BJP party won just 29 seats in the Kashmir election. However, the BJP also looked set to win a surprise victory in the state of Haryana – a result that the opposition Congress party is contesting.
7,000: The Dominican Republic has deported at least 4,900 Haitians since last Thursday alone. The move is part of a new policy in which the Dominican government says it will deport up to 10,000 undocumented migrants weekly amid rising concerns about crime and lawlessness. The government of Haiti, which is currently mired in a severe political, economic, and humanitarian crisis, has blasted the deportations as “an affront to human dignity.”
Japan’s new PM: What to expect
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will there be political fallout in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene?
Lots of fallout for the lives and livelihoods of the people of the Carolinas and elsewhere, but the biggest damage is in both rural areas that largely vote "red" and urban areas that largely vote "blue." And frankly, that's a wash. Horrible morbid pun there, but the reality, I don't think it's going to be much impact come November.
What were the big takeaways from President Xi's speech celebrating the 75th anniversary of the People's Republic of China?
Well, first of all, very interesting. He didn't mention trade war, didn't mention the United States or other potential adversaries on the economic, technological military front by name. Did mention Taiwan, talked about the need to end the separatists and reunify, but nothing new there compared to other statements that he and other leaders have made. I would say the most important thing he talked about are the expectations of serious challenges going forward for the Chinese people. This is coming from a leader who is starting to move towards stimulus as opposed to just sort of incremental responses to economic challenges. A recognition that if they want to hit anywhere close to the 5% plus growth they want, they're going to need to do a lot from the fiscal side as the government. But he's messaging that this is going to be a hard time and it's structural. It's not a matter of a few months, it's a matter of years. And especially with the politics around the world and in the United States not working so well for China right now, that's a message that I think was more for domestic consumption than for international.
Finally, as Japan's new Prime Minister assembles his government, how will he set himself apart from former PM, Kishida?
Well, he's not a "pro-Abenomics" guy. This is someone that I think is going to be challenging from a market perspective. He's going to be fiscally very cautious. He's going to look to raise more revenue, and he's not really loved by the business community. It was the fifth time he tried to become Prime Minister, the former Minister of Defense. Fifth time's the charm apparently in the LDP. I'm not so concerned about potential changes on the international front. He's talked about an "Asian NATO" which is kind of a non-starter from the perspective of the United States. He does want joint control of bases in Okinawa,. That's changed the status quo. But ultimately, if the US pushes back, he'll accept that. The interesting thing about Japan is it's basically a single-party democracy. The Liberal Democratic Party really runs the show. They have an absolute majority in the Diet. They're likely to continue that after snap elections coming up real soon. And so it's really a question of which of the various factions inside that party who largely agree on worldview and on domestic policies ends up running the government. And this time around it is the former Minister of Defense.
- Hard Numbers: Helene hits hard, Zuckerberg enters the big leagues, US strikes Islamic State in Syria, Majority of Argentines live in poverty ›
- Biden and Kishida bromance is meant to make Xi sweat ›
- Viewpoint: How Abe still casts a shadow over Kishida in Japan ›
- Viewpoint: Kishida makes way for fresh face as his party's fortunes fade in Japan ›
A drone view shows a flooded area in the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl, in Houston, Texas.
Hard Numbers: Doctors at a distance, US inflation falls again, Beryl barrels through insurers, Virginia bans smartphones in schools
670,000: Is there a doctor in the house? Maybe, but if you’re an Ontarian, you might have to travel. At least 670,000 residents of the province live more than 50 kilometers from their family physician, according to a new report. Meanwhile, the number of Ontarians who have no family doctor at all has risen by a third since 2020 to more than 2.5 million people.
3: Annual inflation in the US fell for the third straight month in June, coming in at 3%, down from 3.3% in May. That will give the Fed room to start cutting rates again soon, but popular perceptions of inflation persist. Polling earlier this spring showed that two-thirds of Americans consider high prices a top problem, even after months of declining inflation. Why? Because things cost significantly more than they did before the pandemic-driven price surge.
2.7 billion: Damage inflicted by Hurricane Beryl will cost US insurers at least $2.7 billion, according to initial estimates. The storm, which slammed into southeastern Texas on Monday, lashing the Houston area with heavy wind and rains, destroyed property and left millions without power. For more on how climate change is cooking US insurers, see our special report by Ian Bremmer here.
1.2 million: Virginia will limit or ban cellphone use in public schools, a move that would affect 1.2 million students. Earlier this summer, the Los Angeles city school system issued a similar ban, amid heightened attention to the ways that smartphone use by adolescents can interfere with learning and threaten mental health. In Canada, Alberta will soon join Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia with a similar measure.
People walk next to damaged trees in the aftermath of Hurricane Otis, in Acapulco, Mexico, on Oct. 29, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Otis death toll mounts, Taiwanese march for marriage equality, illegal Indian migrants in the US, South Africa’s rugby win, Sweden proves No. 1
43: The death toll in Acapulco following Hurricane Otis now stands at 43. Another five were killed in nearby Coyuca de Benitez, and dozens of people remain missing. Authorities say more than 220,000 homes and 80% of the hotel sector have been damaged, while more than 513,000 people have lost power.
180,000: An estimated 180,000 people marched on Saturday in a Taipei Pride march – East Asia’s largest – including the country’s leading presidential candidate. The most senior government official to ever attend, Vice President Lai Ching-te declared, "Equal marriage is not the end — it's the starting point for diversity. I will stand steadfast on this path."
42,000: Approximately 42,000 migrants from India crossed the southern US border illegally between October 2022 and September 2023, according to data compiled by the US Customs and Border Protection. That’s more than double the previous record number from the same period a year earlier. An additional 1,600 have crossed illegally from the northern border, four times the number who crossed in the last three years combined.
4: In what was described as an epic, rainy seesaw of a match, South Africa won its fourth consecutive world rugby title, beating New Zealand 12-11. No team has ever won four titles, making South Africa’s Springboks the undisputed rulers of rugby.
1: Let’s move to Sweden! In a ranking of 87 countries by cost of living, Numbeo ranked Sweden number one for affordability, safety, and overall quality of life. The cost of living in Sweden is, on average, 20.9% lower than in the United States, while renting is 57.5% lower.